Badkittens just for fun winter weather guesscast thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Well, its that time of year where we start wondering about the winter to come. Will it be mild, wet, stormy or buckets of snow for all?

Of course it is impossible to tell, last years guesscast went quite well, but probably down to luck and vagueness of words

There is much talk of El Nino - and it is a very strong one at present. NOAA give a 95% probability of El Nino persisting through this winter. El Nino afftects temperatures in the Pacific – warming parts of it. This can have a knock on effect for us, though not always as great as people seem to think. However it cannot be ignored. It seems to be associated with cold winters, but not exclusively, mild and wet winters have also occurred during El Nino.

The North Atlantic Oscillation can also have an affect. It is hard to forecast this more than a couple of weeks in advance – there seem to be a wide spread of solutions in two weeks. To predict it we need to look at the temperatures in the Atlantic. The north Atlantic is colder than usual but the tropical Atlantic is warmer than usual. Interesting. The met office seem to think this will lead to a positive NOA led winter – which tends to be mild.
As a result of their positive NOA prediction the met office are suggesting that it is more likely to be a warmer than average Oct-Dec than a colder than average winter. here Somewhat amusingly though they also suggest that the Oct-Dec period is more likely to be wetter than average. Well, half way through Oct and looking forward, this forecast doesn’t seem to be playing out. Their next issue will be in about 10 days time .
Another factor to look at is towards the east – any long lasting cold air tends to come from that direction. And we have an impressive start to the season. Russia has had widespread snowfall, in fact, some are saying that it is a record start. If it doesn’t thaw (it is very early in the season!) this is good news for cold weather.

So where are we at? Conflicting ideas – it could be a very cold winter, there are indications to support that but equally many factors contradict those signals. We will just have to wait and see.

Next update, end of half term :)

As for today, I'm sick of rain.

Ouryve - you have very sensible children round your way!

So we have will it snow/won't it snow this weekend now

The answer is probably yes, in places. Perhaps some over Scottish mountains Thursday night, then Friday night it could cover further south into northern England and Welsh hills. Snow showers though, so some may escape any precipitation at all.

Saturday I think the greatest areas at risk are down the East coast through to Lincolnshire. Perhaps parts of Norfolk too. However, many areas could be at risk, so I guess, be prepared.

It is going to be bitingly cold with the met office going for sub zero 'feels like' temperatures in the middle of the day even in the south.

Snow forecasting is when it gets really difficult. Hard enough to predict exactly which areas will get a rain shower on a showery day, people tend to really notice when you get snow wrong!

I'll pop this weekend into a new thread too.

Thanks Kitten am excited about the prospect of SNOW

Following with interest. Also excited by the prospect of snow

Moose, here in New Mexico we've just hag or first snow too! El Nino is definitely making itself felt, lots more rain and wet than we usually get.
The ski areas are all having snow orgasms.

really?

Wow Manky best get some supplies in...tinned foods, long life milk, wine, wine and more wine

grin

The Weather Outlook's latest thoughts on Christmas 2015 ~ expected to be too mild for snow in most places.

But there's good news when it comes to this year's Christmas dinner, thanks to the warm Autumn sprouts are bigger this year!

But if you look at their probabilities Gloria and the words, they seem to be saying there is more chance than usual. However it is of course guess work. 3 weeks ago noone would have been saying that there was a reasonable chance for snow for some over the past weekend.

Met office contingency forecast should be updated in the next couple of days. Keeping an eye on it....

Kitten my son goes to the Lake District next Mon with school for 3 days, it is going to be cold or very very cold? Have got him lots of thermals but he reckons he won't need them

at the moment it looks reasonably mild Leesmum - I think that waterproofs and wind proof are probably the way to go.

Thanks Kitten they get waterproofs and wetsuits so he should be ok, thank you

Looks like Scotish mountains have got a big headstart when it comes to snow this year ~ most number of snow patches that have survived from last winter, since 1994.

Netweather have issued their winter forecast. They're going for January as being the most likely month for snow.

Thanks Gloria I think they're probably right

They are really sticking their neck out with the levels of detail in their forecast!

Is this the thread BadKitten?

Hola BadKitten

yay, it is :) ipad is being stupid with posting today.

As soon as the met office update their side I'll interpret it and give a run down of some of the models.

Lovely and thanks Badkitten

Hi BBM, I wondered if you know what the weather will be like on Friday the 4th December? I've got a long drive from North Yorkshire to Newport, Wales and I'm hoping it won't be icy or snowy.

Shouldn't be Kazza, maybe to start with a little icy, depending on timings of rain/clear skies on Thursday night but at the moment it looks like a clear run after that. Met office doesn't show any rain thursday night, but GFS does as do some of the GEFS models.