Badkittens just for fun winter weather guesscast thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Well, its that time of year where we start wondering about the winter to come. Will it be mild, wet, stormy or buckets of snow for all?

Of course it is impossible to tell, last years guesscast went quite well, but probably down to luck and vagueness of words

There is much talk of El Nino - and it is a very strong one at present. NOAA give a 95% probability of El Nino persisting through this winter. El Nino afftects temperatures in the Pacific – warming parts of it. This can have a knock on effect for us, though not always as great as people seem to think. However it cannot be ignored. It seems to be associated with cold winters, but not exclusively, mild and wet winters have also occurred during El Nino.

The North Atlantic Oscillation can also have an affect. It is hard to forecast this more than a couple of weeks in advance – there seem to be a wide spread of solutions in two weeks. To predict it we need to look at the temperatures in the Atlantic. The north Atlantic is colder than usual but the tropical Atlantic is warmer than usual. Interesting. The met office seem to think this will lead to a positive NOA led winter – which tends to be mild.
As a result of their positive NOA prediction the met office are suggesting that it is more likely to be a warmer than average Oct-Dec than a colder than average winter. here Somewhat amusingly though they also suggest that the Oct-Dec period is more likely to be wetter than average. Well, half way through Oct and looking forward, this forecast doesn’t seem to be playing out. Their next issue will be in about 10 days time .
Another factor to look at is towards the east – any long lasting cold air tends to come from that direction. And we have an impressive start to the season. Russia has had widespread snowfall, in fact, some are saying that it is a record start. If it doesn’t thaw (it is very early in the season!) this is good news for cold weather.

So where are we at? Conflicting ideas – it could be a very cold winter, there are indications to support that but equally many factors contradict those signals. We will just have to wait and see.

Next update, end of half term :)

Barney is in the house. Well, outside the house but it's crazy! And it's school run in 21minutes....

We have a barney thread here :)

Met office app throwing light snow for Saturday in North Hampshire, don't believe it myself but I'm excited by the drop in temperature

An El Nino article here and apparently the sheep are woolier!

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11999259/British-winter-could-feel-longer-and-colder-because-of-El-Nino.html

We've barely turned the heating on yet... nothing much that an extra jumper or blanket can't fix yet with temps above 10 some nights still - crazy! Sometimes I wibble along holding out for November - now it's the 17th and maybe 3-4 brief bursts.
Wonder what the impact might be on seasonal flu of such a mild start?

Reading that article from the Telegraph and looking at the photos (more are available...) why does anyone want snow? Unless you don't have to venture more than a few yards and have a well stocked supermarket within spitting distance, snow means travel chaos, freezing temperatures, soaring fuel bills, school closures and resultant childcare panics...there is nothing good about snow.

Well I was just mucking out on top ert moooors thinking thank goodness this is rain and not snow.

It is very pretty and you can sledge and have snowball fights. But it is a PAIN if you have to travel.

Here is the Wooly sheep article. Really interesting.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/11879798/Woolier-sheep-suggest-long-cold-winter-says-natural-forecaster-David-King.html

This time a couple of years ago, there was a warning that the winter would be long, cold, with lots of the white stuff.

I did what any sane person would: I ordered a lovely wooden sledge for the children's Christmas present.

I can only hold my hands up, with a mea culpa. Yes. It is my fault that the winters have been mild since then.

You can sledge and have snowball fights - if it's not slushy snow, or icy, or so cold that no-one want to go out in it, and you have fields for sledging etc etc. Otherwise there are far more downsides to snow than there are upsides.

Mild winters?? Not up here.

Those of you who love snow should come up here and spend a few winters freezing, worrying about your heating bills, scraping snow from your driveway again and again, being stuck in traffic for hours on end, trying to work out how to get home because your train has been cancelled, praying the schools don't close because you cannot take time off work or afford unpaid leave, slipping on ice etc etc etc.

Snow is an utter PITA.

True. Down here it is just a pretty, magical, rare occurrence. You sound truly sick of the stuff.

I am - utterly, completely fed up with it

I grew up in Kent and remember how excited we were when we got a light dusting of the stuff. Here in Scotland it's a bit different - oh, for mild, non-snowy winters

Ah, SirChenjin - we're in Kent, so snow is rare, and v. exciting.

But I grew up in a much snowier part of the country, and even then I was still excited by snow.

Ah, SirChenjin - we're in Kent, so snow is rare, and v. exciting.

But I grew up in a much snowier part of the country, and even then I was still excited by snow.

I can only imagine that was posted twice to show quite how excited I get about snow .

Hello all!
Winter has arrived later than usual here in Northern Canada. We had our first snowfall on Sunday - about 10cm. It's not unusual for there to be snow on the ground for Halloween. It's also not too cold yet. Currently -8 with the wind chill.

I was excited by snow when I was much younger and a day when the school bus couldn't get up the hill meant a day off school sledging in the fields. Now that I have to commute and worry about bills and what the hell I'll do for childcare if the schools close and it isn't so exciting

Not too cold at -8?! The UK would be at a standstill if that was the case here in November

Another Kent lass here

Sleet forecast for Sunday!

Oh yes, snow's great fun

Can you tell I really, really hate the stuff?

Think the weekend will be a bit of a brrrr compared to the past few weeks. Just hoping we get rid of these endless grey skies and swap for bright blue crispness (please no endless grey cold skies).

Yet another Kent one here

We had some proper big dumps of snow as a child, enough to satisfy the fun element.

Now I like snow as I commute on train and have a decent employer.... Sorry can't get to the office.

The 2010/2011 dump was a nightmare though as even though I had an off road buggy, it was no match for the weather. Frozen pavements were totally lethal and both I, buggy and toddler slipped into the (gritted) road.

So on the whole, I think two days and a melt is perfectly acceptable. Preferably Sunday and Monday.

Yet another Kent dweller. I am itching to get the sledges out!

I have an 'unused last winter' sledge as well! According to this natural weather forecaster, woolier sheep means we could be in for a cold winter.

There's hope for the sledge yet!

SirChenjin just for you c/o some local kids, a few years ago.