Weather warnings part 3 - February storms.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Really hoped we wouldnt need another thread so soon.

Tomorrow we have one dangerous storm with winds potentially 90mph off welsh coasts, 80mph inland and hitting Ireland very hard too.

met office warnings for heavy rain (exactly where we dont need it but also hitting western scotland), snow, perhaps even down to lower ground at times over night even pretty far south and storm force winds. Also widespread gales across England.

Then friday night into Saturday we have another potentially damaging low. The models have really struggled with this one and it needs a careful eye keeping on it.

Because the winds look so bad tomorrow for some (enough in the amber areas for me to suggest that you consider whether your journey is essential), I'll be logging on around 7:15am to update. My biggest concern is western Wales in the afternoon. However the track may change as the storm develops so the amber warning area may shift. It is possible that the met office may issue some red warnings close to the morning.

Looking further on, although storms may track to their more usual position (north of scotland) as the month goes on, unfortunately the rain looks set to continue, with little in the way of respite.

[LostInWales]

Well they've left for big school but I'm quite happy to make up spurious reasons to collect them at lunch! Going to phone the bus company and just remembered it's the same one that got a public bus washed off the road by a wave last week. Bugger.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

She will be well looked after if shes in a minibus dingit.

I just remembered that my dd is going off in a minibus this afternoon. Poor kiddo, I've been so busy looking at everyone elses prospects I forgot about my poor dd. oops! I did remind her to take a raincoat as she left but shes seems to have spurned that idea as its still hanging up.

Lost, I saw that picture! Perhaps the bus company will be more cautious now. Heres hoping!

[threebats]

Chris Evans just called today - the Usain Bolt of wind.... Its very eerie because right now? I am looking at grey sky and not a branch moving on the trees outside, they suddenly move about then go dead quiet again. Its as if nothing is going on out there - my dd kitten looked at me as if I were bonkers when I told her to take her coat today and keep her phone by her as she is off to another school after school today for drama after school club on the school bus. I said keep your phone on in case its cancelled and I need to come get you - she went, pfft, don't be daft mun, what wind..? I just raised an eyebrow and went to refill the coffee machine...

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

:) they think we know nothing!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

To add to everything some forecasters believe that a squall line could well develop over England today (think back to a few saturdays a go when lots of people thought a tornado had passed through). If this develops then anywhere could see some severe gusts. I'm in and out today but I will keep an eye on the radar when I'm around and do a 'heads up' if it occurs.

There is a small risk that some short lived weak tornadoes may form along the squall line if it develops, keep a vague look out - eye witness accounts are so important in post analysis of severe wind events.

[flootshoot]

Checking in from Staines-under-Thames.

Couple of friends abandoned their properties overnight. Loads of roads closed round here. DS is very excited that we've seen his school on the news full of army guys - the word is from Wraysbury that the water's gone down a fraction. We've got a big puddle of groundwater surrounding the house but there's plenty of places for it to escape to so we should be ok. Police came round last night to check we're ok. However wind is picking up and who knows what today will bring?!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

flootshoot, I hope the day goes well for you. I hope your friends are ok.

[flootshoot]

They're stressed and upset but it sounds like everyone is safe. It's just so unbelievable. I've got my driving theory test booked for 24th Feb when the kids should be back at school but I genuinely have no idea if that's going to be the case.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I just dont think you can look that far ahead flootshoot.

I'm afraid I have unwelcome news - another storm has appeared on the GFS model for next wednesday/thursday. I'm running out of words for this. Unbelievable.

Anyway, lets handle today, today and worry about next week after this storm.

[LostInWales]

Well it's dark here, pouring with rain and starting to get quite windy. Nice. I'm supposed to be going to my friends this morning, already got to divert for floods but apparently there's a cracking view of them from her house, I'll take my camera.

I'm heartbroken for everyone in Somerset and the Thames area that are affected by all the floods, it is completely unbelievable, and more next week? The independent are saying we will have the hottest summer on record to make up for it but I think they must just be trying to stop us all from plunging into irretrievable depression.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

On the radar forecast it looks like a squall line might develop around 11am at around the Bristol channel area, orientated almost due n-S moving eastwards.

[lizzylocket]

Its blowing a hooly in my bit of Pembs.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

stay safe lizzy - its going to get worse.

[flootshoot]

Cripes. Another storm? It's crazy.

[SpottyTeacakes]

I've got to drive over Goodwood hill around twelve. Think it might be breezy.

[Ledkr]

How is Cheltenham looking kitten?
Am I walking to music at 2 with dd or are we staying in the warm and making jam tarts?

[Marne]

Managed to walk the dog without getting wet, never walked so fast , was perfect timing as it is now raining and wind has picked up.

[PseudoBadger]

Baby needs to wake up so I can get the dogs out before it sets in...

[georgedawes]

Crazy weather.

Ils are meant to be travelling to Heathrow on the train on sat morning from Derby. I'm a bit concerned about the storm forecast, do you think they would be better to go the day before?

[lizzylocket]

Storm force 12 incoming from the Irish Sea according to Milford Haven Conservancy Board. It's quite scary here already.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Wet and very wind Ledkr!

georgedawes, its too early to say. It may be that the biggest hazard with Saturdays storm is heavy rain. Of course, if the wind is enough to disrupt trains then it will be enough to disrupt planes.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Huge huge uncertainty over mid next week. GFS develops a storm, ECMWF does not.

[GloriaSmud]

There was almost a nice sunrise a few hours ago but now it's dark and the wind's getting up here (Leicester). Huge mass of rain showing up here. Can see how some squall lines might develop in it.
Is the storm for next Wednesday the one that seems to come from nowhere and develops suddenly off the SW coast?

[georgedawes]

Thanks kitten.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It is Gloria, its a bit odd isnt it.