BadKitten's Christmas forecast thread.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

A just for fun thread! Remember I’m not a professional and it’s important not to base decisions on what I say in forecasting threads as I may very well get it wrong. At this point in time I am looking at GFS, as other charts come into range I will start discussing those too. I’m also looking at the GFS ensembles (which at present as you would expect have a wide range of solutions, most of which are mild). The forecast will change as we go along considering how far out we are at present.

In general over the next couple of weeks we seem to be kept in mild southerlies or south-westerly’s, with more potential for storms and there isn’t much promise of a cold Christmas. The 24th December has finally made into the range of the GFS. What a chart!! It shows a deep low which would bring severe gales and a mix of heavy snow (for some) and heavy rain (for most) across the UK with the snow risk being greater the further north you are.

It’s a stonker of a chart, but probably not a welcome one!

It's gusting to about 50mph in Cornwall atm, it's all part of the storm system that's hitting NI and Scotland. Once the cold front has gone through it should calm down (about 9ish)

cindy see post timed 14:20. Will update each day with any important highlights.

Ill start crying now :( we sail mid day on saturday!!

Don't yet jersey spud! It's ages away and it may end up being much better!

Anyone know what 16th is like? Travelling ip M4 then flying out from Gatwick in evening. We reurn early hours 24th, hope it is ok then not windy landing!!!

Maybe a bit wet on the 16th but not windy.

OYBBK, I do love your weather threads.
SW - London next Thurs/Fri - will we be in trouble travelling do you think?

Thanks. Deep low does not sound good, will that mean wet and windy?

thanks OYMLK dont mind rain its the wind that frightens me.

As with every year when I am hosting the family Christmas, I could really do with it being cold so I can keep some stuff in a box in the garage rather than have to squeeze it all in the fridge. And good weather on 27th so all the relies can travel home again when they're supposed to and I can put my feet up and scoff my favourite chocolates which will be well hidden from everyone else!

I wouldn't mind but we had a horrendous crossing in April which i felt sick for most of (which most likely wasn't helped by my best mate giving birth at 4 in the morning and i was her birthing partner lol. i had 4 hours sleep before getting on the boat)

This time we have our 2 DD's with us too :(

Yuk Jerseyspud!

Ok the lowdown today:

Tomorrow: Far south are under a heavy rain warning. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1387411200&regionName=uk wrnings Maybe a couple of inches of rain over 24 hours for some. Perhaps some snow over scottish hills tomorrow night.

Tuesday: Colder but quite a pleasant day for many. Maybe some rain or snow (high ground) for parts of Scotland.

Wednesday: rain moves in from the west through the day. Mild. Gales for most towards the end of the day.

Thursday: Met office have weather warnings out for severe gales for parts of Scotland and NI but there will be strong-gale force winds across the UK.

Friday: Still windy and another deep low pressure may bring further gales.

saturday: still windy, esp across the north.

Sunday: turning a bit colder.

Monday: windy

Christmas eve: Gales and mild

Christmas day: GFS and ECMWF look rather different. ECMWF brings in a nice little low over us bringing in colder air from the north and unsettled. GFS brings in mildish westerlies (esp in the south, colder further north)

Boxing day:Only the GFS model goes out this far of the 3 main models. Very wet and mild, perhaps cold enough for snow in northern elevated areas.

To summarise: Keep an eye on the met office warnings, we are in for a potentially rather stormy spell over the Christmas period.

OYBBK - I do love your threads

You know where I live (CSE) - my only request is warning to get my snow tyres put on and I'm a happy bunny

'Running behind' at 7.30 on a Saturday morning beggars belief - I think you have FARRRRR too much on!

It has been a little crazy

You aren't going to need your winter tyres for the forecastable future I'm afraid. Wellies more probably.

Winter tyres are recommended for temperatures below +8C and are v good in the wet guess who's got her winter tyres on?

That is true.
Its 12C here but we have had some colder weather.

loving the oo theres a stom, oh it's gone, ahh, its back theme going on here. tis like a weather soap opera.

thanks.

Hello MerryLittleKitten! It's Bucharest from deepest Italy, checking in to see if I will be able to land at Stansted on Thursday as usual....looks like windy but no major issues.

I almost miss those couple of Christmasses when I sat obsessively refreshing flight pages and your threads to see if the snow would let me go home!

(our schools were all closed two weeks ago because of an absolute tempest of a storm)

Ok, looking mainly at GFS, will try to get time to look at the other models later (life will be much less bonkers after today)

Tomorrow: When the rain clears from the SE (might not happen during the day for the far SE) it should be a reasonable day for most. Bit cooler than of late.

Wednesday: A deep area of low pressure moves in from the west through the day bringing gales/strong winds for all with heavy rain. By late wednesday night into thursday there is the potential for severe gales/storm force winds through Scotland and NI . Possibly very nasty looking and more widespread than this weekends pair of storms but once again it depends on the exact path the storm takes.

Thursday: Still very stormy in Scotland, later on perhaps some snow showers to lower levels there. A pleasant but colder day for many in England until some showers and cloud moves in later.

Friday: actually a reasonably pleasant day for many, especially in the east apart from the wind. Feeling colder than of late. Scotland some rain. Later the wind builds again with strong winds/gales for all by the end of the day.

Saturday: windy, damp and mild.

Sunday: calmer, cooler, damp

Monday: similar to Sunday

Christmas eve: nasty storm is back again. Gales/severe gales. silly thing.

Christmas day: horrible disgusting, wet cold and very very windy.

Boxing day: windy, but cold enough for the rain to be snow on higher ground even through england.

Back later :)

Right that's it, I am ABSOLUTELY NOT going to drive ten miles, over big hills and through a patch of thick woodland with notorious form for getting blocked by fallen trees, drink half a glass of low alcohol 'champagne' while MIL does her once a year granny act for half an hour, then traipse back home again, all at exactly the same time as I ought to be doing very important things to our own roast beef lunch. She's going to have to accept that it is actually possible to wish her granddaughters happy Christmas and exchange presents at another time than 'after Church but before lunch on Christmas Day'.

hang fire, it may well change again!

I am currently standing in bike shed at a train station sheltering from the rain. im soaked and cold. bah humbug! give me snow any day.

bucharest its so very different isnt it. it feels like back to the winters of the 00's