BadKitten's Christmas forecast thread.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

A just for fun thread! Remember I’m not a professional and it’s important not to base decisions on what I say in forecasting threads as I may very well get it wrong. At this point in time I am looking at GFS, as other charts come into range I will start discussing those too. I’m also looking at the GFS ensembles (which at present as you would expect have a wide range of solutions, most of which are mild). The forecast will change as we go along considering how far out we are at present.

In general over the next couple of weeks we seem to be kept in mild southerlies or south-westerly’s, with more potential for storms and there isn’t much promise of a cold Christmas. The 24th December has finally made into the range of the GFS. What a chart!! It shows a deep low which would bring severe gales and a mix of heavy snow (for some) and heavy rain (for most) across the UK with the snow risk being greater the further north you are.

It’s a stonker of a chart, but probably not a welcome one!

[SpottyChristmasCakes]

Quite flooded round here now

Oybbk my met office app is showing dry for London on Wednesday?

[BiscuitsAreMyDownfall]

Thanks for the updates OYMLK

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

spotty rain will move in later on Wednesday into your area.

my next train is now delayed. grrrrr. full on shivering due to soggy jeans. :(

[singaporeswing]

Hoping things aren't too gusty around Manchester - my flight is due to arrive at 7am on Thursday!

[digerd]

Soggy jeans are the worst as take ages to dry. Just got back from a rainy dog walk and still in my polyester fleece trousers
Hope it's not raining on Wednesday morning in SE.

Really mild last night at 12 degrees minimum, but the down side is today is wet and dismal.

[SpottyChristmasCakes]

It is really mild isn't it? It's quite odd but for once I'm not dreading the heating bill

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

Very different looking feature on Christmas day now with a little rapidly developing low which would bring gales to the south.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

Above comment was with regards to GFS (06z). ECMWF has a really horrible looking storm for Christmas day. Would bring severe gales/storm force winds across much of England.

[IShallWearMidnight]

Kitten - anything looking likely to disrupt trains running from London to Scotland on Saturday? My DPs got caught up a couple of weeks ago when everything was cancelled, and we're travelling north this weekend [worried].

Also flights to Inverness at the weekend, and back south on Boxing Day? Not worried about getting to the airport to collect/drop off, just the actual flights themselves being disrupted by storms/gales. Any thoughts?

[Perihelion]

Finally got colder in Scotland, 5C.

[digerd]

Gales in the south?. Not again and on Xmas day too!
Had 13 degrees today but tomorrow will be 8 and dry/sunny intervals so still inconsistent weather patterns.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

Saturday does have the potential to be a bit dodgy in Scotland I'm afraid.

[IShallWearMidnight]

but thanks Kitten

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

A new day, a new forecast.

met office warnings for wednesday, thursday

Wednesday: A deep area of low pressure moves in from the west through the day bringing gales/strong winds for all with heavy rain across the UK by evening. Although the met office have warnings for just Scotland and NI even across the south the wind could be gusting to 60mph. By late wednesday night into thursday there is the potential for severe gales/storm force winds through Scotland and NI .

Thursday: Still very windy in Scotland, later on perhaps some snow showers to lower levels there. A pleasant but colder day for many in England until some showers and cloud moves in later.

Friday: actually a reasonably pleasant day for many, especially in the east apart from the wind. By the afternoon though rain spreads from the west Feeling colder than of late. Later the wind builds again with strong winds/gales for all by the end of the day.

Saturday: Still very windy, wet and mild.

Sunday: calmer, cooler, damp. Maybe some snow showers in parts of Scotland

Monday: GFS now creates another stormy low, with the potential for severe gales.

Christmas eve: GFS brings in a developing low in the south which has the potential to be an issue. ECMWF shows a larger deep low moving moving across Scotland Christmas eve night. Possibly some snow for some in Scotland

Christmas day: ECMWF shows the deep low bringing severe gales to the north, GFS looks calmer. Again possibility of the precip being snow for some northern areas,

Boxing day: Both models show different scenarios, either very windy or stormy.

And so the wild and windy theme continues beyond although there is a trend for it to be a bit colder during Christmas and beyond bringing in the potential for some snow for those 'up north' esp over higher ground.

[GloriaSmud]

It's like these storms are on some sort of conveyor belt, all coming from the West/South West. I think I read on netweather that some of it's down to the very strong jetstream and it being right over us at the moment.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

Very quiet thread compared to snowy years!!

It is down to the jet stream roaring along at the moment. Such a contrast.

[AChristmassyJerseySpud]

condor are cancelling ferries

Everyone keep fingers crossed please that we can get there :(

[FunnyFestiveTableRunner]

Much colder here the last few days but also very windy. Gales after gales and another lot howling outside tonight.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

:( Jerseyspud.

I'm afraid there are a lot of weather warnings for the next few days here including for snow for western Scotland, rain, severe gales.

All of the west is affected by warnings at some point, the east escapes.

[AChristmassyJerseySpud]

I'm phoning tomorrow and going to try and get booked in on the over night ferry as thats more likely to go than the fast ferries.

My girls will be heart broken if we have to lose part of our holiday because we can't get there

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

I think that's a really sensible idea. Good luck.

[Perihelion]

Wind getting up again, although am not in a weather warning area at all for the next few days.....

[digerd]

SE
Was +4 minimum last night and still is plus 90% relative humidity.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

warnings thread for my discussion of imminent weather tonight and tomorrow.

As well as the gales today/tonight the day will become very wet for all with heavy rain spreading across the UK by evening.

Tomorrow: Perhaps some heavy snow in parts of Scotland, even to lower levels. North central Scotland seems to be most at risk. Maybe some snow in hilly areas of Wales too. AND perhaps a little surprise wet snow in central and southern areas, esp around the Bristol area and the Chilterns. Elsewhere, some rain in the west, showers elsewhere, perhaps rather pleasant in the east. Quite blowy and colder than of late.

Friday: Another day, another deep low moving in. strong winds-gales everywhere but especially on western coasts. Rain across most areas by night, but earlier in the day perhaps some snow across Scottish high ground.

Saturday:lots of wet, esp in the south (drier for a while northern England) and gales along the south coast. generally windy.

Sunday: windy, esp in Scotland. Some showers about.

Monday: GFS and eCMWF develop another nasty storm bring gales across the UK but severe across Scotland.UKMO isnt so developmental.

Christmas eve: Hard to pick out the detail in ECMWF as it jumps in 24 hour increments. GFS :( an absolute shocker of a chart, esp for Scotland (again) really really nasty and it is very slow to clear.

Christmas day: The Scottish storm is very slow to clear and would erm perhaps bring blizzards to northern Scotland. sorry. colder elsewhere too

Boxing day: If the southerners have been feeling left out well GFS now introduces a storm for you bringing severe gales across the south. Very wet, snow over hilly areas in northern England, Wales and Scotland.

27th: A little calmer (just windy) and a smidgen warmer.

Next storm after that isnt modelled until 1st Jan.

[HesterShaw]

Christmas Day weather forecast
for anyone heading down to Cornwall for festive fun