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Weather

BadKitten's Christmas forecast thread.

570 replies

OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 08/12/2013 10:57

A just for fun thread! Remember I’m not a professional and it’s important not to base decisions on what I say in forecasting threads as I may very well get it wrong. At this point in time I am looking at GFS, as other charts come into range I will start discussing those too. I’m also looking at the GFS ensembles (which at present as you would expect have a wide range of solutions, most of which are mild). The forecast will change as we go along considering how far out we are at present.

In general over the next couple of weeks we seem to be kept in mild southerlies or south-westerly’s, with more potential for storms and there isn’t much promise of a cold Christmas. The 24th December has finally made into the range of the GFS. What a chart!! It shows a deep low which would bring severe gales and a mix of heavy snow (for some) and heavy rain (for most) across the UK with the snow risk being greater the further north you are.

It’s a stonker of a chart, but probably not a welcome one!

OP posts:

Report

AuntieStella · 13/12/2013 10:40

I'm hoping for a gentle sprinkle of snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas morning, followed by crisp winter sunshine and thaw on Boxing Day.

But it sounds like the predictions just aren't showing anything that benign or festive.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 13/12/2013 10:40

I think that cold and quiet is probably better than monster storm!

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LucilleBluth · 13/12/2013 12:02

I'm loving this thread. I quite like stormy and mild. After 5 years of living through Canadian winters I wouldn't mind never seeing snow again. :)

OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 13/12/2013 12:03

I can't believe how mild it is out there today! 12C. Almost don't need a coat.

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Maitri · 13/12/2013 15:51

Marking place.

DziezkoDisco · 13/12/2013 16:28

I want a frosty, crispy day please. With sun and blue skies.

This is how this works isn't it?

digerd · 13/12/2013 16:33

The breeze was surprisingly mild for December., but overcast and dull. However, the forecast for SE says the skies will clear during the night making it very cold but by morning probably cloudy and raining

BiscuitsAreMyDownfall · 13/12/2013 16:37

Just marking place as I'm fascinated by what the weather will do.

Praying for no disruption for anyone.

Thanks OYMLK

marcos · 13/12/2013 17:22

My little darling really wants a White Christmas and I think that even if you live in a big city in the South (as we do) you should have at least one when you are little :-)

MadeOfStarDust · 13/12/2013 19:30

live in the SW and expect Christmas will be mild and slightly damp with grey overcast skies - as usual......

it varies a little, but on average (from dodgy memory..) - grey/dismal/slight drizzle on a soft breeze...

OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 14/12/2013 07:29

Nasty storm is back for the north on Christmas eve with potential blizzards in Scotland to boot. Christmas Day looks less windy but with some cold rain about.

More later, running behind this morning.

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PacifistDingDong · 14/12/2013 09:30

Oooooh, a White Christmas!!

noblegiraffe · 14/12/2013 12:30

Just saw something about a massive storm next Thursday?

Golddigger · 14/12/2013 12:34

Just had a very strange gust of wind.
The wind has been picking up the last couple of days, but just now was a gust out of seemingly nowhere.
Picked up the cats dishes etc and flung them around.
I live quite western Britain.
Just wanted to warn people.
Maybe it was normal for other people? Just not seen it myself before.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 14/12/2013 13:25

Golddigger, sometimes you can get little eddys of wind as a gust moves past a building which can cause a locally strong 'patch' of wind.

Possibly a nasty storm on thursday (or maybe wednesday night). Something I'm keeping my eye on but as you can imagine I'm a bit run ragged trying to fit everything in at the moment. Very busy at home :)

OP posts:

Golddigger · 14/12/2013 13:27

ah, that would make sense. It was exactly like that.

Dont overdo things Kitten.

SirChenjin · 14/12/2013 13:29

No no no - you keep your horrible predictions of snow 'further north' to yourself. Or change that to 'snow in the SE' please

AChristmassyJerseySpud · 14/12/2013 13:29

Im starting to panic about this storm. on the 21st (next saturday) we are sailing accross the channel Jersey to Weymouth

Are we in for a nightmare trip or the boat being cancelleD??

OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 14/12/2013 14:04

dont worry Golddigger - just having one of those aaaarrrggggghhhhh days!

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OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 14/12/2013 14:20

Ok quick low down for the following week as GFS currently stands (no doubt it will change lots!). ECMWF has quite a different picture!!

Tomorrow - Stormy in the NW of Scotland and NI and generally galeish across much of Scotland. Wet for most. Pretty blowy across central and southern areas later.

Monday - mild. damp in the south. Calmer winds.

Tuesday - colder than of late, esp in the north where there may be some sunshine :)

wednesday - clouding over and rain moving in. Possibly a deep low moving across Scotland bringing more very strong winds to somewhere northish.

Thursday - deep low may still be an issue. Generally windy/gales and rain.

Friday into Saturday another deep low possible and it doesnt look especially nice. Gales/severe gales for many.

Sunday - calmer (ECMWF has it stormy in the south!)

Monday - calmer til the evening

Christmas Eve - Wet but not too windy (ECMWF is milder and doesnt have the little low over the opt of us)

Christmas Day - maybe cold enough for snow over hills. Rain elsewhere

Boxing day - wet for some. (snow possibly over some hills???)

And there we have it. Longer term ginormous uncertainty!

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EndoplasmicReticulum · 14/12/2013 15:20

Metcheck gives it sleet/snow for Christmas day! (North Yorks, but not hilly enough so we'll probably get the sleet).

I'd really like some snow while we are still on holiday. We have sledges at the ready.

Yankeecandlequeen · 14/12/2013 16:30

I'd love some snow for Christmas. I live on a mountainside so I'm crossing all I can!

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OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 14/12/2013 16:32

Endo Metcheck uses the raw output from GFS (which is kind of reassuring as it tallies roughly with my thoughts on the charts). Needs to be taken with a huge pinch of salt.

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JadedAngel · 14/12/2013 16:39

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Cindy34 · 14/12/2013 16:47

Any forecast for 21/22nd for those of us travelling? Last year it was very wet, driving through the Lake District I remember the rain being so bad that it came into the car through the door seals. Think it must have been combination of wind and rain making for terrible drive. Then once in Scotland there was flooding which blocked roads.

Same again this year? If the storm is coming Christmas Day/Boxing Day will that mean it is not too bad before, or will it be bad all week?

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