BadKitten's Christmas forecast thread.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

A just for fun thread! Remember I’m not a professional and it’s important not to base decisions on what I say in forecasting threads as I may very well get it wrong. At this point in time I am looking at GFS, as other charts come into range I will start discussing those too. I’m also looking at the GFS ensembles (which at present as you would expect have a wide range of solutions, most of which are mild). The forecast will change as we go along considering how far out we are at present.

In general over the next couple of weeks we seem to be kept in mild southerlies or south-westerly’s, with more potential for storms and there isn’t much promise of a cold Christmas. The 24th December has finally made into the range of the GFS. What a chart!! It shows a deep low which would bring severe gales and a mix of heavy snow (for some) and heavy rain (for most) across the UK with the snow risk being greater the further north you are.

It’s a stonker of a chart, but probably not a welcome one!

Fortunately I think that none of the low pressures coming up look as intense windwise as we've had/about to have. so much rain around though. Interesting charts popping up second week of Jan - it turns colder, with still a lot of precipitation. Cold enough for snow??? Perhaps.

Any thoughts on amounts of rain in Surrey? I am in an area which has been on the news today with flooding, wondering how much worse it will get overnight.

Enough to be a bit of a worry Debbie but the blessing is it shouldn't be too prolonged. My estimate is around 10-15mm but its a very wild estimate. I hope that it doesn't add to the issues in your area too much.

Thanks. There was definitely some rain overnight but no flooding, at least not in my road.

That is really good news Debbie :) We are central southern England and ended up with 10mm last night.

I don't want to be one of those people who are always doom and gloom but the potential rainfall totals on Monday/Tuesday are pretty worrying in the south. Maybe 40mm? I would be listening to local wisdom about previous bad floods and prepare accordingly. Hopefully the rainfall totals are being over done and will down grade.

OYBBK - you aren't always doom and gloom - sometimes you bring us snow Seriously, you are reporting the weather, not making it & I'm sure people are just thankful that they can make plans accordingly

Thanks Chipping :) No snow in the forecast yet!!! But the winter is still young(ish).

updated warnings thread which is full of light and cheer

Once again I am glad we live on a hill! What worries me is that if the temperature drops, all this rain is going to turn to snow and that is such a PITA!

Some of my old ladies are properly isolated in the snow, though I just found out that the most isolated one has a guy with a tractor up the hill who happens to be a nurse! Thank goodness!

Thanks! x

SE
Clear sky and frost this morning, -1. No wind.

Chilly -1.3C overnight here.
Some posters on weather messageboards are clinging on to this forecast from the metoffice:
UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Jan 2014 to Sunday 26 Jan 2014:

Current indications suggest the unsettled start to January is more likely than not to persist through the middle to latter part of the month. This would mean spells of dull, wet and windy weather alternating with brighter but colder and showery periods, including some wintry showers. Some signs are also emerging suggesting temperatures being less mild in general terms than the last couple of weeks, and perhaps even significantly colder late in the month.

Updated: 1139 on Sat 28 Dec 2013

(I think I've just worn out my * button in highlighting all those words!)

Gloria you can bold a whole sentence you don't have to do each individual word

Can you?
Oh yes I didn't know that!

That's interesting Gloria as the models do look cooler through to mid month but that's as far as they go for me!

I managed to understand that the models are going for colder from mid January. Maybe all the snow shovels and de-icing stuff I've just seen outside Aldi will get used after all ~ it's not exactly been 'flying off the shelves' so far!

It will be really interesting to watch. In the mean time keep an eye on the 6th/7th. Could be another humdinger of a storm.

I eventually today took a look at my vulnerable rose arch at back of garden and it had fallen apart in a few places. . Only held up by the thick branches of the climbing roses each side of it. Half was leaning at a 45 degree angle to the river bank .

Well, decided to have a go armed with padded leather gloves, a step stool and grim determination . After a few attempts in vain and perseverance I managed it.
For how long, though, is the burning question until the next storm comes?
My other 4 arches were intact, thank goodness.

I still reckon we're in for some proper cold before winter is out. There are plants groaning with berries round here.

Parts of my back lawn that got no sun was still frozen at 3.30pm. It is only +1.8 now on my house wall.

It was very frosty here this morning and still so mid morning where not in direct sunshine... but weirdly it didn't feel that cold out.

Gobby ~ I think we're due for cold too, I don't think winter's got started yet and it might end up being like earlier this year (where it started properly in January.) I hope though that if it does go that way, it doesn't last so long!

digerd ~ I have an unreliable archway too and I think the only reason why it doesn't fall over at the moment is because of the honeysuckle growing up it!

We've been to the allotment this afternoon (haven't been for 3 weeks) to check things are OK/weed suppressant fabric hasn't been blown away and there are some greenhouses there that haven't survived the storms. Think that's a clearing up job for the plot holders when the weather calms down.

DH keeps threatening offering to take the DSs skiing - in Scotland.
Glencoe with windchill -8 to -9.
Methinks not.

So, it looks like this cold is likely to continue for a bit?

Well temps are going to be down from where they were. Single digits for most away from the south coast and colder for sure in Scotland. However we aren't likely in the next couple of weeks to see many of the sharp frosts. The picture is very much still wet and wild. Flooding becomes more and more of an issue, esp in the south west.

To be honest I prefer storms to snow. At least if it storms overnight I can still go to work in the morning.

Thank you.

We've been to a local park today and playing football was impossible due to the pitch being about knee high mud .
Fun was had though and boys got exercised...

I'd rather have snow that storms, please (sorry, Geckos) - 'tis clean and lovely and not as scary as storms.
I may only feel this way as I can walk to work though