BadKitten's Christmas forecast thread.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

A just for fun thread! Remember I’m not a professional and it’s important not to base decisions on what I say in forecasting threads as I may very well get it wrong. At this point in time I am looking at GFS, as other charts come into range I will start discussing those too. I’m also looking at the GFS ensembles (which at present as you would expect have a wide range of solutions, most of which are mild). The forecast will change as we go along considering how far out we are at present.

In general over the next couple of weeks we seem to be kept in mild southerlies or south-westerly’s, with more potential for storms and there isn’t much promise of a cold Christmas. The 24th December has finally made into the range of the GFS. What a chart!! It shows a deep low which would bring severe gales and a mix of heavy snow (for some) and heavy rain (for most) across the UK with the snow risk being greater the further north you are.

It’s a stonker of a chart, but probably not a welcome one!

Sssshhhh, Kitten, don't tell anyone that!

grrr gone onto page 2 on this thread. Makes it more difficult to reply to people.

Ok, not forgetting the awfulness that Scotland is going to be going through over the next 24 hours, we still have some more weather coming. 06Z has come out.

Friday - Another rough storm for NI, scotland and perhaps northern England. so sorry guys. will also be pretty galeish along the south coast too I think.

Saturday - the north still suffers from the storm.

Sunday - generally ok but actually there is a tiny bit of a squeeze in isobars down the east coast that I'm looking at.

Monday - a low pressure could bring gales.

run out of brain cells. will try again later!

A surprisingly straightforward journey for us so far, although we aren't south of Sheffield yet... Clear blue skies!

You should be ok for heading south now :)

Gatwick north terminal looks horrific on the news. Severe delays and getting worse due to power issues.

S.Herts.
Ealier this morning the sky was blue coming from the north and was looking forward to a sunny afternoon. An hour ago it rained and the wind gusted up again. No blue bits anymore, just grey . 8 degrees.

Well, I never! The sky is suddenly lighter with blue bits

Blue sky near Chippenham too!

We just had a downpour :( wont help the flooding here. Think we had about 80mm yesterday but my rainguage didnt catch a lot of it due to the rain going sideways,

Didn't last long and soon raining again. Don't have a rain gauge but I am shocked how full my empty high pot and other buckets are this morning. On the plus side the water filling stopped them from being blown around the garden.

Blue sky for the last couple of hours in Edinburgh. Windy, but not as bad as I feared. Nothing over 50mph yet.

All is calm in North Hampshire.

What a night . The crack I heard was the tree breaking in the road behind us, it's not hit any houses, just squashed a couple of back gardens.

thank goodness no one was hurt meglet.
We seem to have sustained a little roof damage, but nothing major thank goodness.

Merry Christmas to all, wherever you are or are heading to. It's -15 and snowing large flakes here. Truly festive :)

Sounds beautiful Moose, Merry Christmas to you and to all of you who post or lurk.

Moose, that sounds wonderful . We made it across the country and it actually wasn't too bad in the end.

Merry Christmas everyone.

That was a nice envy face rather than a grotty one, btw!

I'm glad it was ok Hester :)

Very quick look at the storm situation: , Fridays system actually comes in late Thursday night into NI, so a little earlier. Unfortunately it looks a little further south too, bringing northern England and perhaps the north midlands into the main firing line on Friday. Gales for most, perhaps severe there but not as severe as Mondays/yesterday's storm (which is still affecting northern Scotland.)
Unfortunately there will be a lot of heavy rain associated with this storm, affecting the north and west but also those areas already flooded. The good news is is that the heavy rain isn't as prolonged.

Safe travelling everyone. I should be able to update tomorrow in the afternoon/evening sometime.

Happy Christmas kitten

thanks for all the weather chat and advice helping us to indulge our national obsession!

Wishing everyone a safe, warm, and happy Christmas celebration!

A belated Happy Christmas to everyone!
Beautiful day here (Leicester) but 'tis a chilly 4.5C.

Metoffice warnings are out for tomorrows storm. Looks like the heavy rain starts moving in to western parts late tonight.

Belated happy Christmas from me too.
And a thank you for all your efforts

You are welcome :)

I need to catch up on the weather now! But it's been an interesting 24 hours, seen lightning, heavy hail, torrential rain, flooding and today also fog as well as passing numerous downed trees.

I'll log on to my pc and see what's going to happen next.

As Gloria says, new warnings are out.

met office warnings

Ambers for wind for northern England, Wales and Parts of Yorks.

Yellows for Wind for Southern scotland through to the Midlands and also down the west coast and the north east coast to the very tippy top of Scotland.

Rain warnings for the south and west.

It is actually the rain that concerns me most because the of the cumulative effect. This isnt the last of the storms. I know that some areas have already had severe flooding and although we arent expecting rainfall totals to be as high with this storm as on Monday/Tuesday, it isnt good news.

Wind wise, I think the amber areas will see gusts to 70mph, maybe 80mph in exposed areas. I guess in general the yellow areas will see gusts 50-70mph perhaps.