Has Biden just lost the election?

[EmmaGrundyForPM]

I've just watched the news and seen Biden forget Trumps name. Not just a quick slip of the tongue and corrected, but calling him George and not knowing how to correct himself.

I absolutely don't blame him - I often struggle to remember something, or call ds1 by ds2s name. We all do it. And Biden is presumably very tired in the run up to next week.

But Trump is of course making huge capital out of this and I'm worried that voters who are wavering will swing back to Trump.

Please tell me I'm wrong!

I actually think that Biden was a smart choice out of the group they picked from.
He is too old and won't set the world alight.

But he isn't a woman, a person of color or gay. All characteristics likely to put off a substantial number of US voters.

He plays well in the Midwest an area the Dems have to get back to have a chance. He is a pretty decent bloke with a moving backstory.

The more youthful radical Dems aren't going to vote for Trump instead of him it was the middle and the suburbs that Dems needed.
( Personally I liked Kamala best so I'm pretty happy with the pairing even though I can't vote)

He has promised Big to people who will try to set to world alight through. As a woman I am concerned. Of course, Trump concerns me too.

A population of 300 million and this is the best they could come up with - really? If they'd put up the Pillsbury Dough Boy, he would have done a better job

Biden is polling 8-10 points ahead so if the Democrats are trying to lose deliberately they are failing miserably.

Damn incompetent Dems!

Honestly has anybody blithely insisting “Trump is a shoe-in” actually, y’know, looked at the data? Both for 2016 and today? Have you been to the United States for more than a two-week holiday in a vacation mecca?

Things look DREADFUL for Trump. He has no time left to turn it around. It’s not impossible but it’s massively unlikely (an enormous Biden landslide is now more likely than a Trump win).

HelloToMyKitty
Shit I had no idea there has been yet another fatal shooting of a black man - Walter Wallace, 27. No wonder the average life expectancy of a black male in the US is 69.

But he isn't a woman, a person of color or gay. All characteristics likely to put off a substantial number of US voters.

Distressing really that people would choose solely based on race, sex orientation or gender above talent. I feel sorry for the younger generations who will miss on great leaders, writers, artists, teachers just because of this.

blueangel
Right now it’s a pendulum swing. This is exactly why Biden is standing. He stands for what the electorate wants - as an old, white guy, he knew he had a chance. Once this election is over, the next candidate will be very different. They have to be.

@HoldMeCloserTonyDanza

Biden is polling 8-10 points ahead so if the Democrats are trying to lose deliberately they are failing miserably.

Damn incompetent Dems!

Honestly has anybody blithely insisting “Trump is a shoe-in” actually, y’know, looked at the data? Both for 2016 and today? Have you been to the United States for more than a two-week holiday in a vacation mecca?

Things look DREADFUL for Trump. He has no time left to turn it around. It’s not impossible but it’s massively unlikely (an enormous Biden landslide is now more likely than a Trump win).

I keep swinging back and forth between this optimistic take and feeling like we're totally fucked.

No one knows what will happen with any great confidence. There has never been an election like this, and we don't know the depths to which Republicans will go on election Day to repress votes and so on.

Trump is many things but he definitely does not have dementia, he definitely is a powerful communicator

I think your favourite media may be keeping things from you about Trump, Friendsoftheearth.

Do they just show you very short clips? Carefully chosen?

Because no one who's watched Trump's wandering and getting lost between a car and airplane steps, difficulty raising a glass of water and walking on slopes, or constant inability to articulate words, (Nambia, oranges) could state that he definitely doesn't have dementia. They rather suggest the opposite.

He himself said the cognitive test was difficult, when it's not difficult for people without cognitive decline.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-speech-veterans-student-debt-isis-a9074261.html

I wonder if your preferred media just aren't showing you those things? In case they affected your opinion?

America was at it's safest under the Obama administration.

If Biden gets in, the Republicans have only themselves to blame.

They have lowered the bar so very far.

The US is extremely, extremely partisan, to the point that it really doesn't matter much what the candidates do or say.

We saw that with Trump talking about grabbing women by the pussy, (rightly) saying he could shoot someone in broad daylight and it wouldn't make a difference, and the list goes on of disgusting things he's done or said that people don't give a shit about because they feel they MUST vote republican.

Well now, the same is true for Biden. I don't know ANYONE who thinks Biden is the ideal democrat candidate. Almost everyone I talk to acknowledges he's probably senile and definitely a weird aggressive perv/creep. But that doesn't matter because people will now vote for any democrat to get rid of Trump. Biden is the one who could probably shoot someone on 5th avenue now and it wouldn't make a bit of difference.

But he isn't a woman, a person of color or gay. All characteristics likely to put off a substantial number of US voters

Obama won by a landslide in 2008, so I don’t know what you are talking about here. He flipped places that are now solidly red.

According to Associated Press, the context missing from this video is that the interviewer was called George - he was being interviewed by George Lopez during a virtual "I Will Vote" concert.

I don’t think the issue is that he got the wrong name, we’ve all done that, but most of us I expect would realize quickly and rectify the error.

Biden didn’t, and I think that points to a certain slowness, not surprising but it would make me question his ability to be able to cope with a 4 year term.

Regardless, I expect Trump to win.

@Boiledeggandtoast

According to Associated Press, the context missing from this video is that the interviewer was called George - he was being interviewed by George Lopez during a virtual "I Will Vote" concert.

I know, but the point I was making was that some people will just see the clip, not know the context and make a judgement from.that.

He didn’t “correct” the error because he hadn’t made an error - he was speaking directly to George. His next phrase referenced Trump.

If you’re so sure Trump will win, I would urge you to bet some money on it! There should be some kind of financial penalty for being this gullible.

Obama won by a landslide in 2008, so I don’t know what you are talking about here. He flipped places that are now solidly red.

That is in part what I am talking about. The reaction to Obama winning.
I agree with you in as much as I think that there is more prejudice against the other protected characteristics of sex, sexual orientation and gender identity.
But I would argue that Trump benefited from a significant pushback against a black bloke winning the presidency.

He didn’t “correct” the error because he hadn’t made an error - he was speaking directly to George. His next phrase referenced Trump

I watched the clip before knowing this and now I've just watched again and it still doesn't make it any less weird. When he says "George" he is full flow in the middle of a sentence "four more years of George, uh, George uh ee uh ee we're gonna find ourselves in a position". A rambling sentence which makes no sense, a common trait both Trump and Biden share, it seems.

” I keep swinging back and forth between this optimistic take and feeling like we're totally fucked.”

It’s not an “optimistic” take though - it’s literally the empirically most likely outcome based on the reams of data currently available.

An “optimistic” take would be saying Biden is going to win by more than 12 points nationally and take Texas (the odds of this happening are only about 1-in-3).

Interesting. I have never heard of a dysfluency which causes you to mispronounce Trump as George.

I'd second (or third, or whatever) what Gasp0de said.
Biden isn't compelling, but would have good staff. Talented people would come flocking back to work at/for the White House.

One of Trump's biggest failings is that he fired anyone remotely competent, caused the other competent people to quit and has hollowed out the administration to surround himself with the likes of Ivanka, Jared, Barr, etc.
A friend who worked for the Green Investment Bank for a while told me that in all his dealings with US environmental staffers under Trump, it wasn't even a secret that their only aim was to identify whatever Obama had done/would have done and do the opposite, unthinkingly.

How many diplomatic posts are unfilled because Trump thinks he can do foreign policy on his own by wooing dictators and stroking orbs?

As for Trump's economic policies, from what I have read (disclaimer: really, really not an economist) they were badly overheating the economy, so figures before Covid looked good but were unsustainable anyway, and the pandemic is making things far worse.

I'm [shocked] anyone can think a president who comments on a huge tropical storm that 'it's very wet, in terms of ... water', or says people should inject themselves with bleach and that he's Superman and wants to kiss everyone because he got Covid treatment no one else would be offered, has done a good job and is a better bet than Biden, for all the latter's obvious failings. And picking Harris is an astute move.

@HoldMeCloserTonyDanza

” I keep swinging back and forth between this optimistic take and feeling like we're totally fucked.”

It’s not an “optimistic” take though - it’s literally the empirically most likely outcome based on the reams of data currently available.

An “optimistic” take would be saying Biden is going to win by more than 12 points nationally and take Texas (the odds of this happening are only about 1-in-3).

But that data is run through models based on previous elections, and there are so many potential confounding variables with this one. There has never been this much early voting, and overall turnout may be unusually high, especially in constituencies that usually are under represented. There has already been significant interference in the election, from creating friction in the postal service to closing polling stations. Undecideds are low. The social media and disinformation effect is huge. And of course something big and dumb can happen in the last week.

I think the data are as accurate as they can be but they're not infallible.

Biden is a Democrat Trojan horse for Harris to get in. I hope they pull it off.

When are the results expected to be announced?

@exwhyzed

Biden is a Democrat Trojan horse for Harris to get in. I hope they pull it off.

I had the same theory but everyone I've suggested it to says not.