Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

It is so difficult for school children, it felt like most of dd's y9 had it in oct/nov. They've all been told not to test at all (LF or PCR) for 90 days. So that's a lot of children not testing. Also a lot of children not getting vaccinated yet as have to wait 90 days. It would be helpful if they could issue some guidance around this.

@boys3

and the / our London scenario

My back of an envelope calculations holding up well so far! Much as I'd rather they weren't

@boys3 Is it obvious where the other Omicron areas are? Perhaps in smaller region size?

@sirfredfredgeorge

South Africa still trending downwards in growth rate, with more indications that Gauteng is close to R=1. So I still think existing immunity does a lot to dampen Omicron - however I don't think we have enough existing immunity, and Boris should be announcing restrictions today that actually "flatten the curve" so we get to the immunity without overwhelming hospitals.

(ie closing indoor events)

I thought we had 95% immunity at last count?

Nottingham and Manchester also stand out - it is pretty clear this week’s spike is driven by Omicron.

@tootyfruitypickle

It is so difficult for school children, it felt like most of dd's y9 had it in oct/nov. They've all been told not to test at all (LF or PCR) for 90 days. So that's a lot of children not testing. Also a lot of children not getting vaccinated yet as have to wait 90 days. It would be helpful if they could issue some guidance around this.

I don't think they'll change the advice for children not to get a second jab for 90 days as they put that in to minimise risks from the jab itself (that heart condition). I can't see why they're telling them not to do LFTs though. They won't be picking up weeks old infections like PCRs sometimes can. And clearly much more risk of reinfection with Omicron.

@Firefliess yeah maybe we should do LFs again. Have various events coming up and also seeing family next week pre Xmas and worried about not testing

Advice is for first jab also to be after 3 months

[quote sirfredfredgeorge]@boys3 Is it obvious where the other Omicron areas are? Perhaps in smaller region size?[/quote]
@sirfredfredgeorge

This the regional table - last four weeks, using a two day lag for the most recent, so it runs to and includes Monday 13th cases.

The weekly columns are rates per 100,000 then the start last week / this week column are actual cases, and relate to Monday and Tuesday numbers so far this week and at the same reporting week last point.

I'll stick up some council level tables a bit later.

However stand out growth just for the last couple of days compared with a week ago (excluding London) - so therefore cases Monday and Tuesday only vs same point last week.

Herts /Essex

Broxbourne, Brentwood, Hertsmere, North Hertfordshire, Rochford between 145% and 100% increase

East Midlands

Nottingham, Newark, Derbyshire Dales, Charnwood between 161% and 104% increase

North East

South Tyneside 108% increase

North West

Bury, Manchester up 116% and 102%

South East

Sevenoaks, Southampton up 115% and 103%

I thought we had 95% immunity at last count?

Had antibodies, however the antibodies from vaccine particularly appear to be very unspecific and require massive amounts of them to be useful at preventing infection. They appear to be better at preventing serious illness, but the reported number (just 29% reduction in SA hospitalisations reported here earlier) is not enough to prevent the NHS collapsing, particularly with the staffing reduction simply through isolation.

Here are the more specific numbers at English council level.

Sorted by cases per 100,000 in the 7 days to Monday 13th Dec, so using just a two day lag. Right hand columns actual case numbers reported today for Monday and Tuesday and the number at the equivalent point last week. Plus percentage change.

Councils 1-20

Lambeth
Wandsworth
Southwark
Hackney & Ciy of London
Hammersmith and Fulham
Islington
Lewisham
Reigate and Banstead
Greenwich
Thurrock
Elmbridge
Brentwood
South Northamptonshire showing a very slight fall in 7 day rate, and 10% fall - not hugh absolute case numbers - in start of week comparison.
Dartford
Merton
Cambridge
Kingston upon Thames
Bromley
Sutton
St Albans*

Councils 21-40

Tower Hamlets
Haringey
South Oxfordshire
Tunbridge Wells
Richmond upon Thames
Waltham Forest
South Bucks
Croydon
Cherwell
Windsor and Maidenhead
Milton Keynes
Chiltern
Wycombe
Waverley
Havering
Basildon
Plymouth
Vale of White Horse
Bexley
North Hertfordshire

Councils 41 to 60

Central Bedfordshire
Barking and Dagenham
Sevenoaks
Woking
Test Valley
South Hams
Colchester
Winchester
Chelmsford
Southend-on-Sea
Oxford
Trafford
Uttlesford
Epping Forest
South Cambridgeshire
Maldon
Tandridge
Camden
Kensington and Chelsea
Guildford

Councils 61 to 80

Welwyn Hatfield
Three Rivers
Epsom and Ewell
Stevenage
Daventry
Tonbridge and Malling
Reading
Rochford
Wokingham
Enfield
Castle Point
Westminster
Ealing
Spelthorne
Hart
Medway
East Hertfordshire
Worthing
Lewes
Eastleigh

Councils 81 to 100

Mole Valley
Dacorum
Bracknell Forest
Surrey Heath
Newham four weeks back had the lowest rate in England
Nottingham as highighted earlier
Crawley
West Oxfordshire
Brighton and Hove
Swale
Broxtowe
Ashford
Maidstone
Fareham
Redbridge
Barnet
Broxbourne
Charnwood
Huntingdonshire
West Devon

Councils 101 to 120

includes a couple of London Boroughs

Ipswich
Brent
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole
Gravesham
Bedford
Mid Sussex
Rushcliffe
South Kesteven
Canterbury
Worcester
Bury
Tamworth
Wealden
Southampton
Harlow
Mendip
Newark and Sherwood
Folkestone and Hythe
Hounslow
Hertsmere

Councils 121 to 140

Watford
Cheshire West and Chester
Boston
Warrington
Harrow
Chichester
Runnymede
Broadland
Gloucester
Basingstoke and Deane
Wellingborough
Gedling
East Hampshire
New Forest
Hinckley and Bosworth
Eastbourne
Dover
Tewkesbury
Bromsgrove
North West Leicestershire

Council 141 to 160

Adur
West Berkshire
Portsmouth
Aylesbury Vale
Hillingdon
Havant
West Lindsey
North Kesteven
Stockport
Arun
Braintree
Blaby
Lincoln
Salford
Rugby
Torbay
Halton
Stafford
Rother
Norwich

Councils 161 to 180

Newcastle-under-Lyme
Harborough
Mid Suffolk
East Suffolk
Slough
Corby
North Devon
Stratford-on-Avon
Lichfield
Tendring
Cheltenham
Torridge highest rate in England 3 and 4 weeks ago
Telford and Wrekin
Melton
Horsham
Bristol, City of
Hastings
Gosport
Rushmoor
North Warwickshire

Councils 181 to 200

Dorset
Exeter
Manchester - big start of week increase, but from a relatively low base
Redditch
Wiltshire
Isle of Wight
Luton
East Cambridgeshire
Thanet
Babergh
Rutland
East Northamptonshire
Sedgemoor
Wyre Forest
Peterborough
South Somerset
Wirral
Stoke-on-Trent
West Suffolk
East Staffordshire

Councils 201 to 220

Erewash
Warwick
Chorley
South Gloucestershire
Teignbridge
Northampton
East Devon
Cheshire East
Mid Devon
North Somerset
Derby
Nuneaton and Bedworth
South Norfolk
North Norfolk
East Riding of Yorkshire
Stroud
Kingston upon Hull, City of
Mansfield
Cotswold
Liverpool lower increase at the moment as compared with Manchester

Councils 221 to 240

South Holland
Kettering
Chesterfield
Shropshire
Rochdale
Breckland
Coventry
South Derbyshire
Cornwall & Isles of Scilly
North Tyneside
North East Lincolnshire
Oadby and Wigston
Solihull
Bath and North East Somerset
Dudley
Knowsley
York
North East Derbyshire
Richmondshire
Amber Valley

Councils 241 to 260

Selby
Cannock Chase
South Ribble
Wolverhampton
Hyndburn
Northumberland
Craven
Ashfield
Sefton
Wychavon
Copeland
Forest of Dean
St. Helens
Stockton-on-Tees
Newcastle upon Tyne
Wigan
Fylde
East Lindsey
North Lincolnshire
Gateshead

Councils 261 to 280

County Durham
Bolsover
South Staffordshire
Oldham
Staffordshire Moorlands
Redcar and Cleveland
Leicester
Great Yarmouth
Blackburn with Darwen
West Lancashire
Birmingham

Councils 281 to 300

Ribble Valley
Preston
Wakefield
Bassetlaw
Lancaster
Fenland
High Peak
Harrogate
Hambleton
South Tyneside - 100% increase start of week but from low base
Doncaster
Herefordshire, County of
Derbyshire Dales - 100% increase start of week but from low base
Barrow-in-Furness
Ryedale
King's Lynn and West Norfolk
Somerset West and Taunton
Burnley
Middlesbrough
Barnsley