Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Councils 301 to 315

Malvern Hills
Sheffield
Blackpool
Eden
Wyre
Kirklees
Bradford
Sunderland
Calderdale
South Lakeland
Hartlepool
Carlisle
Pendle
Allerdale
Scarborough

finally 59,429 cases so far with Monday 13th December spec date in England ; not hugely different at the moment to January 5th which had 58045

Where age is known 59,127 from Monday and 57,943 back in January, So not quite exact, but a differential of only around 2%.

The age distribution is however worthy of note.

These show the numbers on each day by the five year age bands; and by slightly broader age groupings.

Close to 5,000 fewer cases in the combined age 70+ group on Monday as compared with Jan 5th; and not far off 3,000 fewer in the 60-69s.

Very limited LFD testing back then so Monday just past has 9,000 more cases in the 0-19s than the day in January.

1.237 million tests on Monday; as compared with 0.454 million on Jan 5th.

of those 957,000 LFDs on Monday vs 103,000 on Jan 5th.

Thank you @boys3

Going back to yesterday's question, why do these threads fill up quicker when the shit approaches the fan? Because people here know what exponential means. It is like a little oasis of logic

@Postdatedpandemic

Thank you *@boys3*

Going back to yesterday's question, why do these threads fill up quicker when the shit approaches the fan? Because people here know what exponential means. It is like a little oasis of logic

Actually I’ve noticed the opposite. The same posters pretty much on 24/7 posting how fine it is and society is running as normal. It’s so obvious you’d almost think they were Govt stooges. Who actually has that much time on their hands?

It’s a very strange form of cognitive dissonance or gaslighting. I’m unsure which.

@Itisasecret I don't think society is going to manage normal for a good few months. But as an insomniac with strange part time shifts, could I be the secret government stooge?

MN has a disproportionate amount of antivaxx nutters plus some interesting nudge agents (a nice way of saying cognitive dissonance or gaslighters who follow the line)

And then I think of Gove and what the line is composed of...

posting how fine it is and society is running as normal

I've noticed the same. It's like a parallel universe, or some strange twilight zone.

I feel like Brentwood has had an unfair share of covid. It was amongst the first for delta surge testing and omni wasn’t it? And now it’s top of the league tables again

Thanks for the charts Boys makes a nice change even on this thread somehow.

Hugh Pym of BBC reporting that reinfections are to be shown in the daily figures.

…”in due course”, whatever that means!
twitter.com/bbchughpym/status/1471248608443912199?s=21

@MarshaBradyo

Thanks for the charts Boys makes a nice change even on this thread somehow.

No need to be passive aggressive, of course the data sometimes gets clouded by opinion and experience and the desire to talk about what is happening in the posters world. As said often on this thread if you feel things are being derailed the best response it to ignore rather than argue a point, which normally I do however a pointed barb at regular and helpful posters is rude.

Boys yet again amazed by your charts especially the one that shows the data to my question. The talk of hedgehogs and foxes is also very interesting.

What is the reasoning behind including reinfections in the daily numbers?

Because they will matter in terms of hospitalisations and deaths, and not be a tiny proportion as hitherto?

Regulus I wasn’t referring to that which was a while ago, and not worth resurfacing.

Numbers are going to get very high - and yep I will skip posts and look out for data.

As numbers get higher the incident of non data posts will as well (although surely even boys doesn't have a graph for that one!) as more people look for answers.

Jangly I would think it would be helpful to inform people of reinfection numbers, especially if they lead to hospitalisation.

Regulus I take it you didn't see the unnecessary comment prior to Marshas?

There is another thread about Londons vaccinations and I hadnt realised how few had

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=region&areaName=London

Partly because my london border area isnt.

I imagine then that the growth in London has to be somewhat driven by this - I am not sure if that is good news (that lower vaccine uptake here means other areas might not be as bad) or bad news (that London is going to find it tough) or a mix of both

HSA do publish reinfection numbers in their weekly report. They said recently that 7% of Omicron cases were confirmed reinfections (meaning the person had a positive PCR test at least 3 months ago) compared with 0.4% of Delta cases. So it's clearly now much more important to include them but apparently complicated to do so on a technical level.

So it's clearly now much more important to include them but apparently complicated to do so on a technical level

Just as important to publish vaccinated vs unvaccinated I think, given the risk of hospitalisation is so different in both.

@sirfredfredgeorge

So it's clearly now much more important to include them but apparently complicated to do so on a technical level

Just as important to publish vaccinated vs unvaccinated I think, given the risk of hospitalisation is so different in both.

Yes it would be interesting to know the vaccination status of new cases wouldn't it, especially the numbers in people who've had boosters? There are difficulties in calculating rates (as opposed to crude numbers) between vaccinated and unvaccinated people though because we don't really know how many people there are in the country, and hence how many unvaccinated people there are. As it's only quite small numbers of older adults are unvaccinated a relatively small difference in population estimates can make a big difference to case rates (eg by using ONS population estimates rather than NHS registrations)

They publish the vaccination status of hospital admissions somewhere - I've seen it, and it was on the press conference last night. It was split by age group and showed a big reduction in likelihood of hospitalisation for the vaccinated across all age groups.

For me the key metrics are the status of the hospitalisations. How many are reinfections is vital data.

My reading of reinfections were that they were in the most part mild (which is why South Africa is like it is) and that the problem with them is that it allows for much quicker spread rather than hitting a wall of immunity. So the danger with Omicron is that in a very short space of time it will get anyone who hasnt got it already plus a chunk of people who already have and are vaccinated.

Once though we are through this then it would be endemic and it would be managed like flu.

If a high amount of reinfections are hospitalised though - how can it stop being an issue?

That's the question I'm wondering too @Quartz2208? I used to think there was an end point in sight with an eventual endemic equilibrium. But if new variants have the ability to reset existing immunity then will we need to rely on something else? antivirals? The prospect of going through this year after year is grim.

@Ohsofedupwiththis

Regulus I take it you didn't see the unnecessary comment prior to Marshas?

Apologies I didn't, I do try and do as I preach and evidently read and ignored that one. I do make note of the poster, I would always choose to read a post by Marsha, hence I gave it more thought. In fairness I probably brought my own day to the thread it has been a bad morning and it's not yet 10.

That's the crux of it, I think Quartz.
Obviously everyone is, to an extent, dependent on the rest of the world being vaccinated too (or have some level of immunity via infection). Realistically, what's the likelihood of ever reaching this or is it permamently shifting sands?

Regulus I admit I was vague as I also prefer to scroll by, look for the positive and don’t want to engage with it

Anyway all good I’m glad thread feels level again, I hope you have a nice day

Yes exactly @mrshoho. I would expect a small number of reinfections to end up in hospital (as is normal from other cold viruses) but I wouldnt expect it in young healthy adults.

I guess that is where the South Africa data is positive - that it is looking milder with lower hospitalisations due to that (Chris Whitty I think was fairly clear on that) the danger here is the number who havent had it yet that could overwhelm us.

Its is going to be a difficult couple of months I think but I guess we will know exactly where we are in March