Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@JanglyBeads - I'm pretty sure the majority of vulnerable under-12s aren't eligible here yet - at least not in practice. My dc8 was classed as CEV/shielding when that category still existed - but no sign yet of her being able to access the vaccine.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Will vaccinations even stop the spread?

We know vaccination breakthroughs against Omicron are more common than with Delta - given the reported reduction, it would do little to prevent outbreaks - the 90% suggested effective vaccine (of triple dose recently boosted) by Israel is not enough to prevent an R12 virus (not that I actually think it's R12) but no, Vaccines were already struggling against Delta.

the reduction in deaths and hospitalisation is important though

I have found the full video at last! Apologies again. It’s an interview on SABC yesterday with professor Rudo Mathivha, director of critical care medicine at Baragwanath Academic Hospital/ Wittswatersrand University. The account of the 15 year old’s death is just after 2:00

Age breakdown in England added Tuesday just gone.

As lonely posted earlier the case rate in England for the 5-9s has moved into four figures;. Quite the material difference between marginally under 1000 per 100,000 or marginally over I'm not wholly sure, clearly a big deal on twitter though.

the 5-9 group has the biggest growth since the start of November, although very much slowed in the most recent week, plus some big variations between regions. Rates in that age band over 1400 per 100,000 in the South East and South West; more than double that of London, Yorks & Humber; and not far off double that of the North West and North East.

Biggest growth in the week to Tuesday though in 25-44 age bands.

Increases in every age band under 60; although just 0.3% for the 55-59s. Decreases in all older groups bar the 90+ - that group's rate still 41% lower than at the start of November.

Table shows the weekly rates by age band, plus the percentage movement for the latest week vs the start of November, and vs prior week.

The second one has the actual weekly case numbers.

the case rate in England for the 5-9s has moved into four figures;. Quite the material difference between marginally under 1000 per 100,000 or marginally over I'm not wholly sure, clearly a big deal on twitter though.

Well yes but it’s just a marker isn’t it? For how many children are being infected, and are at (still small) risk of bad outcomes?

AF .

Cheers for the new thread. I don’t often comment but I do read all the posts, thank you for keeping us up to date on the numbers

Arguably a marker that in trems of the median was passed over a week ago. However whatever one's view it is indisputable that cases in the 5-9s are at a very high level.

Albeit with regional variation - at best though less high rather than any having anything near a genuinely low rate. Whether the slight falls in some regions for the most recent week continues remains to be seen. Certainly it would be positive if it does.

Thanks jangly for taking over the vaccine role and getting the new thread started. :)

Regional cases rates in other age bands.

Starting 0-4s

Again some falls in the most recent week but every region above where it was at the start of November

10-14s

Grim figures, although four regions with a week on week fall, and one flat. Whilst the SW and SE have the highest rates their increases in the most recent week slowed somewhat.

15-19s

20-24s

25-29s

30-34s

35-39s

I think the idea that we can "keep children safe" via bubbles, masks or ventilation is looking more and more unlikely. If they're going to catch it at some point, does it really matter if it's now or later on? Vaccinating first might have been a good idea, but infection followed by vaccination seems to give the best protection possible, so I can't see why it matters much what speed they catch it at.

40-44s

Rate close to 1000 per 100,000 in the South East, although that level has been breached quite a few times, but only once before in the SE as far as I can see and that by only 0.1

45-49

50-54s

55-59s

60-64s

Although London with a week on week increase its rate for this age band still the lowest in England, and still slightly lower than its rate at the start of November.

first three of the older age bands

and the final three

Really good thread from James Ward on Twitter here twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1467628403553615885?t=MOlL3dtuZSIWEQ-mQ0vnzQ&s=19

Basically saying that even if milder (quite a big if I think at present) the faster spread of Omicron will concentrate a very large number of hospital admissions into a short space of time - similar to January this year.