Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@MidtoLon

Follow this thread but don’t usually post. So my son tested positive on Lateral flow test yesterday morning. Flowflex nasal only faint positive line. Did PCR yesterday afternoon which has just come back negative. Others at his work have had positive lft and negative PCR. They have repeated lft using the nose/throat type which is negative. Is it false positive lft’s or have they done PCR too early. Supposed to be having family meet up tomorrow. Most of us have had our boosters but some haven’t. Don’t know what to do

This is interesting... same thing happened with my Son, two very faint positives on the Flowflex. We all went for PCR, all negative including my Son. Next day due the white/green box test and Negative......

mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1471899191957987328

Omicron became dominant in England on Tuesday, England growth is the same speed as London just England is ~4 days behind.

Data people - in Guardian live covid news, Pfizer has said today it expects the covid pandemic to continue until 2024. Is this as expected?

@MamDancer

Data people - in Guardian live covid news, Pfizer has said today it expects the covid pandemic to continue until 2024. Is this as expected?

I'm not sure how they think it'll stop then? Most epidemiologists seem pretty sure it'll become endemic, so isn't going to end as such. Over time we'll build up immunity, get used to booster jabs, make better booster jabs and roll out medicines which prevent it becoming serious, so it won't rule our lives, but it won't have gone away.

twitter.com/antonio_caramia/status/1471907779719876609?s=21
Paed admissions up 49% week on week

@JanglyBeads

twitter.com/antonio_caramia/status/1471907779719876609?s=21 Paed admissions up 49% week on week

That's horrifying - could this also be "admissions with" rather than due to covid, as per Firefliess' post?

@MamDancer

Data people - in Guardian live covid news, Pfizer has said today it expects the covid pandemic to continue until 2024. Is this as expected?

It is expected by me.

I expect several more waves and at least a couple more lockdowns in this country.

By controlling covid numbers the government could minimise the covid chaos in this country, but since our government favours pharmaceutical interventions over public health measures they are unlikely to do that.

Well, the highest infection rates are in primary age children right now.

Although, you could look at the number of children in hospital with covid, and work out whether this was above the baseline community prevalence, which last week was 5.6%, off the top of my head.

spec date graphic for England -not that it particularly shows us anything we did not already.

The / our London £50k scenario

Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
·
21h
Just under three weeks ago, the WHO gave B.1.1.529 the name Omicron and declared a variant of concern. At the time, it was perhaps 0.1% of cases in the UK. Tomorrow it will likely be the dominant variant here.

Just can't quite get my head around that.

I keep coming back to this, what will the next three weeks bring?

Although, you could look at the number of children in hospital with covid, and work out whether this was above the baseline community prevalence, which last week was 5.6%, off the top of my head.

It was 5.6% in the ONS survey but, of course, last week numbers are already out of date.

SA doctors previously commented that many paediatric “admissions” are in fact newborn babies born to Covid positive mothers. Given Covid prevalence in the 20-40 age group (which would now be way higher than what we see in ONS) it is a “realistic possibility” but we do not have hard data to support it.

regional rates per 100,000 - spread over three graphs. London split between inner and outer boroughs.

As such

One for : London overall, Inner, Outer and England overall

Then : South East; East; East Midlands and South West

and finally : North West; North East; West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humber

to avoid any sugar coating just a two day lag used

Ooh, I guessed that on data thread a while back!

Re our admissions for children. Answers are in the Twitter thread.

Wait, does that say 80% of those admissions are with Covid as the primary reason. Not admissions with Covid but because of Covid? If so that’s quite worrying. Can someone clarify this for me?

@Itisasecret

Wait, does that say 80% of those admissions are with Covid as the primary reason. Not admissions with Covid but because of Covid? If so that’s quite worrying. Can someone clarify this for me?

I can only see the 80% figure given by some random on the thread, with no source given. Overall across all age groups across the whole pandemic it's around 80% of people in hospital with covid who are there because of covid. But the recent rise in under 5s isn't necessarily going to be the same proportions - far from it. Under 5 s are the most likely age group to be in hospital for other reasons (mainly due to being born there!) and the least likely age to be seriously ill from covid. I really don't think the hysteria in that Twitter thread is merited.

Not far off 100,000 additional reported cases in England Mon-Thur spec dates so far as opposed to the equivalent reporting point this week. Overall a 68% increase; the seven day rate comparison is 34%; although this will increase as the week progresses further.

Is the increase in Paed admissions due to Covid or other reasons as well.

I think its inevitable, sadly that there will be more paeds admissions this year, because kids have missed out on 18 months building up their immune system.

because kids have missed out on 18 months building up their immune system.
18 months?

London borough rates per 100,000 to 8th and 15th December; and case numbers Mon-Thu as reported last Friday and today.

@Arcadia @Cornettoninja @sirfredfredgeorge quick thanks for the replies yesterday to my Q on reinfection rates and testing capacity.

Independent Sage presentation today was really helpful in that respect too.

East of England

East Midlands

North West and North East

South East