Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Does anyone know where the labs are in England? There must be a few in the Glos/Somerset/Bristol/Wilts area, so if it's sabotage that's worrying as they'll be more than one involved.

The only lab I'm aware of in England is the big one in Milton Keynes, one of the Lighthouse labs.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-test-and-trace-how-we-test-your-samples/nhs-test-and-trace-how-we-test-your-samples

This has propaganda some info about the labs, but is short on actual facts, eg de the Location of laboratories section!

Link at the very end to more abut the new Rosalind Franklin lab at Leamington which owned mid-July. I wonder if that could possibly be the source of the problems -reports have said that initially it was operating at nowhere near capacity and was only slowly being staffed.

Just a thought, not a conspiracy theory!

I've finally found Kit Yates' flowchart I saw elsewhere to save me the trouble of drafting it up myself. It uses a false negative rate of 30% for LFT and 5% for PCR and still comes out slightly in favour of having the virus if you've had LFT+PCR- at current prevalence even without the suspected issues.
Irritatingly I can't attach the image itself because it's the wrong shape for MN's rules so if you can't see the screenshot it's in this article.
theconversation.com/covid-why-are-people-testing-positive-on-lateral-flow-tests-then-negative-on-pcr-169502

New lab might make sense. I dont see a new variant - it would be spreading and the fact postal tests give a positive to me indicates a lab based issue

It could be a machine is incorrectly calibrated - and gives out a negative when it is positive would to me make sense

I wonder if the SW was the first region to start sending samples to the new lab?

Red Button.

One of these?

or maybe this one.

A poster on another thread mentioned that her husband’s workplace had to dispose of a load of PCR tests recently as they were out of date. Is that even a remote possibility for the LFT / PCR discrepancy - expired tests being used?

50 days! That’s reassuringly slow 😂

What’s the red button though 😱

@boys3

Red Button.

One of these?

😂😂

@boys3

or maybe this one.

LOL - Funniest thing is that "namechanger" didn't think we would clock their previous history. Methinks they need to be a bit more creative.

Seems to me to be pretty unkind and unempathetic to make fun of another poster's concerns. We all have different levels and areas of anxiety. I don't understand the need to ridicule.

Back to the numbers please.

[quote weddingguestdec]@NandJ isn't 50 days quite a long time?

And if it doubled in 50 days, we'd still be well below the last peak..[/quote]
It is, but we should take it as a warning that things aren't looking good.

@Quartz2208 The calculation of 50 days comes directly from the data itself.

@boys3

or maybe this one.

That's Johnson to a tee!

(And @BigWoollyJumpers I didn't deliberately namechange, I was unable to get into my account so had to make a new one.)

I think scientific labs don’t generally publicise their locations. There would be concerns about protesters/saboteurs for example against animal testing.

@FlagsareFun

I think scientific labs don’t generally publicise their locations. There would be concerns about protesters/saboteurs for example against animal testing.

That's true. There are quite a few around us. Some hidden in deepest darkest rural places. Interestingly they are heavily recruiting for staff at the moment, on shifts, for both standard Covid and variant testing.

I tried find out where south west light house lab might be impossible could be number of labs.

I remember Hancock saying genome sequencing is done at Porton down but think that's a military or government lab.
I do worry we may not know about a new varient until its too late.
Alpha was slow burn then explosion finally announced Dec but had been circulation sept 2020 we think.

Some USA articles refer to something knows as Delta plus not sure how that varies from just delta.

In the last 50 days though it has been up and down there has been no exponential growth so far @NandJ so you are simply looking at when it was last that amount
If exponential growth kicks in again doubling time would be far less than that given where we are

@ILookAtTheFloor

The only lab I'm aware of in England is the big one in Milton Keynes, one of the Lighthouse labs.

I think there is one in Leamington Spa. Opened a few months ago.

I think we keep to look at Scotland to see if the red button needs to be pushed.

Hi data people please would you cast your critical eye and tell me what you think about this?

I’ve started to follow some immunologists and so forth on Twitter to try and get a bit more understanding of how Covid, vaccines and the immune response works.

I saw this last night and as I have younger children I found it a bit worrying m, or is this a question for the ‘studies corner’ thread?

I didn’t want to start a separate thread that may cause undue alarm. Thoughts welcome!

Here it is:

drive.google.com/file/d/13qv26tk50n-3boGqHcee0eEi5trnrkY2/view

My daughter is positive (shocker) a day after test and trace insisted she could go back to normal. The stats and data are broken because the testing is.

Boys3 definitely the Bullshit one! 😂

It's the one the Government use when they send off a sacrificial offering for a TV interview.