Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@Lelivre that is indeed a very worrying article, but it just spouts doom without backing it up. Also lots of vaccinated people are getting covid so he isn’t actually giving a solution by saying children should be vaccinated.

[quote Lelivre]Here it is:

drive.google.com/file/d/13qv26tk50n-3boGqHcee0eEi5trnrkY2/view[/quote]
Well we've known for a while that long-term organ damage can be one of the unfortunate consequences of Covid, and this piece does a very good job of summing things up.

But our government have shown time and time again that they don't give a fuck about our children, and so nothing will be done about it.

[quote ConadSmith]@Lelivre that is indeed a very worrying article, but it just spouts doom without backing it up. Also lots of vaccinated people are getting covid so he isn’t actually giving a solution by saying children should be vaccinated.[/quote]
No, everything in the piece is backed up with a clear reference.

[quote ConadSmith]@Lelivre that is indeed a very worrying article, but it just spouts doom without backing it up. Also lots of vaccinated people are getting covid so he isn’t actually giving a solution by saying children should be vaccinated.[/quote]
The references to back it up are right there on the page.

@NandJ but what do you suggest we do, given vaccinated people are still getting covid?

Scotland seems to have halted it's decrease in cases. Averaging the daily cases for the last week is almost the same as the previous week. 0-14 age group is still by far the most affected, at 559 per 100k per week. 15-19 age is at 324 per 100k.
43% 12-15's have now had a vaccine.
Masks still required in class, in high schools and in shops, public transport etc.

45k cases today.

@Perihelion

Scotland seems to have halted it's decrease in cases. Averaging the daily cases for the last week is almost the same as the previous week. 0-14 age group is still by far the most affected, at 559 per 100k per week. 15-19 age is at 324 per 100k. 43% 12-15's have now had a vaccine. Masks still required in class, in high schools and in shops, public transport etc.

Zoe app showing quite an increase on last week in some areas.

No, everything in the piece is backed up with a clear reference.

Yes, but at least some of the references in relation to the point he's trying to make are tenuous at best.

For example, the first two reference relate solely to hospitalised adults, with the second specifically referencing the impact on the elderly already suffering with dementia.

Trying to use those as evidence in relation to the impact of Covid on infected children is extremely tenuous.

The way he expresses his concerns it sounds like these are definite consequences of being infected with covid, not possible side effects.

Do we think / hope this will peak soon?

Do we think / hope this will peak soon?

No, still too much testing and mitigations to keep at this rate, but not enough mitigations (and no that's not masks, it's closing indoor environments) to reduce spread.

@sirfredfredgeorge really worrying! Do you think we'll need tough restrictions to stop it?

@sirfredfredgeorge do you predict they'll bring them in this side of Xmas?

Stop what? This was the course chosen months ago, "everyone will get it", perhaps people believed at the time that the vaccine was more effective at stopping infection than has turned out to be, but for everyone to get it, they need to be infected, for some reason we chose to keep significant mitigations that reduce spread (asymptomatic testing) which just prolongs the process and keeps bringing in more people with waning immunity into the picture.

@sirfredfredgeorge sorry I misunderstood and thought you meant we should / will stop indoor mixing!

I don’t think anyone knows yet what winter will bring. Will the flu jab be effective, will people get covid and flu together. The essential question is whether the NHS (which is currently struggling, with long waiting lists for everything) will be overwhelmed by serious cases. If that happens even Boris will have to accept further measures are needed.

@ConadSmith there's 'measures' like masks and wfh and then there is banning people seeing their friends and family which I don't think will get much compliance in private homes.

I don’t think anyone knows yet what winter will bring. Will the flu jab be effective, will people get covid and flu together

Which is an argument for "everyone will get it" happening before flu season, but again, not one we've gone for. However I am increasingly thinking that is what the SPI-M modellers were expecting and the massively wrong model they provided is not actually the good news it seems (much lower hospitalisations than modelled) since it just moves all of those into the winter flu season.

SPI-M need to re-publish their models based on the actual data we've now had.

@weddingguestdec did it get compliance this year? We were allowed but didn’t to be on the safe side but I knew lots who weren’t allowed but did it anyway.

Zoe forecasts todays figures based on symptoms as 70k cases thats quite a difference.
Half dd1 yeat group off least 50 plus staff this time taken down science department.
I'm still worried south west is worse than we think.

45k cases is high but it might be manageable if hospitalisation doesn’t increase alarmingly . I noticed more people in town today wearing masks this week, many of my colleagues didn’t come In to the hybrid workplace due to colds (negative tests ), I think some of the measures may be self fulfilling

@sirfredfredgeorge

Stop what? This was the course chosen months ago, "everyone will get it", perhaps people believed at the time that the vaccine was more effective at stopping infection than has turned out to be, but for everyone to get it, they need to be infected, for some reason we chose to keep significant mitigations that reduce spread (asymptomatic testing) which just prolongs the process and keeps bringing in more people with waning immunity into the picture.

lots of people who are CEV (like me) are actively trying to avoid it

we don't particularly fancy playing Russian Roulette with our health

I really don't think "go out there and get yourself infected" was the gameplan

@Quartz2208

In the last 50 days though it has been up and down there has been no exponential growth so far *@NandJ* so you are simply looking at when it was last that amount If exponential growth kicks in again doubling time would be far less than that given where we are

This isn't true. For the last 10 days there has been exponential growth of cases. Graph thanks to Oliver Johnson.

A thread on the delta AY.4 which has developed a new mutation (S:Y145H) & that variation (AY.4+S:Y145H) has been growing since July 2/6:

mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1448705622338375681