Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@BuzzLite

Anecdotal but whereas last year we heard lots of stories of some household members contracting covid and others not, this recent strain seems to leave no man standing. Have the genome sequencing labs released anything since they announced delta?

My experience has been the opposite so far... half of DS's class were off with it a few weeks ago and only one parent caught it. They are very young and we're mostly asymptomatic though so perhaps not very efficient spreaders.

8 of us in this household, one tested positive no one else got it (3 weeks ago).

@Karma1981

8 of us in this household, one tested positive no one else got it (3 weeks ago).

Wow. Yet at our running club dinner on Saturday, 20 of 37! All double jabbed.

@Stilltalkstotrees

A local club that I'm a member of had a weekend away last weekend. 37 of them went to dinner on Saturday. One of them tested (LFT) positive on Sunday afternoon (having tested negative on Saturday pm). Since Tuesday 16 more have tested positive and a few are still awaiting PCR results.

Bloody hell!! Did patient zero have symptoms?! Are others symptomatic?

I'm not sure about patient zero - but everyone I've communicated with has heavy cold symptoms.

@BuzzLite

Anecdotal but whereas last year we heard lots of stories of some household members contracting covid and others not, this recent strain seems to leave no man standing. Have the genome sequencing labs released anything since they announced delta?

See: twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1449217846593064963?s=21

Thread on changes in covid admissions by area.
mobile.twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1451233701703176197

Anyone know why admissions in Blackpool have shot up this week? Cases look stable there.

I wonder how many of those claiming not to have caught it despite close contact have been testing regularly.

@BuzzLite

I wonder how many of those claiming not to have caught it despite close contact have been testing regularly.

Do you mean LFT? As if no symptoms you wouldn’t do PCR regularly.

Presumably everyone at the dinner was face to face for almost 2 hours. If the air flow was bad the virus would get bedded in nicely.

I may be completely off the mark here (and apologies if this was already discussed upthread) but the map of cases on the dashboard seems to be flipped from the way it was earlier in the year.

Bolton, London, Leicester, much of Scotland, all blue or light blue when the rest of the country is purple. All of these suffered quite badly in the Delta wave.

Do we think there's some sort of (and I'm very reluctant to use this phrase) "herd immunity" from the previous spread of Delta keeping the growth lower in these areas?

Yes that’s definitely thought to be the case.

Presumably everyone at the dinner was face to face for almost 2 hours

Yes, but Pfizer claims reduction in transmission of over 50%, and a reduction in onward transmission by over 50% of a vaccinated individual who caught yet. Yet this anecdote doesn't really match either, it can of course still work, BUT, what it shows is double vaccinated (we can't say fully any more, as 3 are required for that for some and 1 for others) can still be super-spreaders and super-spreaders still infect double jabbed at high rates.

So then the question that the vaccinators need to show is not the average reduction via the vaccination, but the reduction in super-spreaders, because the distribution of covid has always been biased to a big super-spreaders any reduction in the non-super-spreaders onward spreading doesn't achieve much.

Have any of the vaccines provided info on their impact on super spreaders, very difficult to get such data of course.

NHS in Cornwall declares 'critical incident'

Does this happen in Cornwall often?

@Lockheart

I may be completely off the mark here (and apologies if this was already discussed upthread) but the map of cases on the dashboard seems to be flipped from the way it was earlier in the year.

Bolton, London, Leicester, much of Scotland, all blue or light blue when the rest of the country is purple. All of these suffered quite badly in the Delta wave.

Do we think there's some sort of (and I'm very reluctant to use this phrase) "herd immunity" from the previous spread of Delta keeping the growth lower in these areas?

I think so big would be interested to hear what others think too

I hope it gets lighter still in next couple of weeks

Purely going on people I know with covid, there seems to be a LOT of kids off school here with positive PCRs but zero/few symptoms. Is this Delta+? More transmissible but less ill-making? (Can’t think of word!)

@MarshaBradyo if you were at a meal where most people ended up catching covid morally you should PCR then lft everyday and PCR again after 5 days. Maybe those claiming not to have caught it just haven’t bothered?
@SecretKeeper1 that age group were always mostly asymptomatic.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Presumably everyone at the dinner was face to face for almost 2 hours

Yes, but Pfizer claims reduction in transmission of over 50%, and a reduction in onward transmission by over 50% of a vaccinated individual who caught yet. Yet this anecdote doesn't really match either, it can of course still work, BUT, what it shows is double vaccinated (we can't say fully any more, as 3 are required for that for some and 1 for others) can still be super-spreaders and super-spreaders still infect double jabbed at high rates.

So then the question that the vaccinators need to show is not the average reduction via the vaccination, but the reduction in super-spreaders, because the distribution of covid has always been biased to a big super-spreaders any reduction in the non-super-spreaders onward spreading doesn't achieve much.

Have any of the vaccines provided info on their impact on super spreaders, very difficult to get such data of course.

It doesn't show anything because it is an anecdote and not data.

I think with close contacts it can be a mixed result but after a positive case in our household and subsequent testing it made me wonder if previous asymptomatic cases play a role.

If 1 out of 3 (? Is that right) don’t have symptoms then some of us could easily have already had it, be immune, and not know

Anyone know why admissions in Blackpool have shot up this week? Cases look stable there.

My hypothesis is that Blackpool hospital might be used as one of the regional hubs for Covid patients (which makes sense from capacity and infection control perspective). Hospital admissions in the neighbouring areas appear stable even though cases there were also rising up until last week.

An alternative explanation is a Covid outbreak in the hospital (hospital acquired cases are reported as admissions) but it does not explain flat admissions in other LAs

Bolton, London, Leicester, much of Scotland, all blue or light blue when the rest of the country is purple. All of these suffered quite badly in the Delta wave.

Do we think there's some sort of (and I'm very reluctant to use this phrase) "herd immunity" from the previous spread of Delta keeping the growth lower in these areas?

Yes, acquired immunity from earlier waves seems to be a major factor in containing the spread. It is not technically “herd immunity” (since people can and do get re-infected) but it is likely be an interim step towards endemic transmission.

Here are a few comparisons between different LAs in the same region. Places hit hard previously are not seeing the same type of spike as those who managed to escape the Alpha/earlier Delta wave.

It doesn't show anything because it is an anecdote and not data

It certainly shows that there is at least one case where a double vaccinated person is a super-spreader. And a super-spreader reduction in onward transmission is not 50%, 'cos a super-spreader has always been limited only by the possible number of contacts.

And where is the data on super-spreaders, the trumpeting of the success of the vaccine (by everyone other than Pfizer of course who say it's pretty crap and you need to buy boosters from them) doesn't mention the impact on them - which is what I was asking for.

WHERE IS THE DATA?

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0010q9x

Inside Science with Kit Yates and Deepti Gurdasani explaining the significance of the 43,000 false negative PCR results - 8:00 - 16:30. DG does a ‘back of the envelope’ calculation of the onwards effects of these in the SW.

@wintertravel1980

Bolton, London, Leicester, much of Scotland, all blue or light blue when the rest of the country is purple. All of these suffered quite badly in the Delta wave.

Do we think there's some sort of (and I'm very reluctant to use this phrase) "herd immunity" from the previous spread of Delta keeping the growth lower in these areas?

Yes, acquired immunity from earlier waves seems to be a major factor in containing the spread. It is not technically “herd immunity” (since people can and do get re-infected) but it is likely be an interim step towards endemic transmission.

Here are a few comparisons between different LAs in the same region. Places hit hard previously are not seeing the same type of spike as those who managed to escape the Alpha/earlier Delta wave.

Thanks @wintertravel1980, those are interesting charts!

I'm in London and this weekend I'm due to travel back to visit parents. They live in an area which now has one of the worst rates in the country, having fared much better in spring...

I was worried about ensuring I tested before I go, but maybe I should be making them do tests before I cross the threshold!

Lots of interesting graphs here - positivity (up markedly!), vaccine uptake by age ethnicity gender, and cases - deprivation, which we touched on the other day.

twitter.com/admbriggs/status/1451295821237002254?s=21