Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Just to update you on our super spreader event outbreak (some might find it interesting but I appreciate it's anecdotal, not data so happy to desist if requested).

2 more have woken up to positive PCR texts this morning - so that's 22 of 37. Someone has said they will draw up a seating diagram, but first indications are that the entire table of 10 at which patient zero sat have tested positive.

We also have 2 people with symptoms exactly as the positive cases who have tested negative on PCR. Several tested negative of LFT but positive on PCR. I strongly suspect that the 2 negatives with symptoms should be isolating. I will be avoiding the club this week!

www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/m20-1495

This looks at the chances of false negatives at various points. It looks like PCRs before symptoms develop are more likely to have false negatives than false positives.

I wonder if this is a small factor in the increase in cases? People who test soon after exposure are getting false negatives, then possibly attributing later atypical symptoms to colds?

Thank you Tupla. Interesting reading and surprisingly high level of false negatives )if I'm reading it correctly).

The running club dinner with most people infected - have you seen proof everyone was double vaccinated? Were the servers and bar staff double vacccinated? Before asking questions about the effect of the vaccine on superspreaders I'd be questioning if everyone at the dinner was tellling the truth/ everyone working in the building was double vaccinated. They are all likely to have used the toilets, a great place to pick up covid from anyone in the building.

I certainly wouldnt be visiting that club for at least 2 weeks so anyone employed there would be post infection.

Well no, I haven't asked to see everyone's vaccination certificates 🤣 it's anecdotal so unlikely to be used for any formal study - certainly without any further checks. However, we're a close club and have known each other for many years, with lots of social interaction. I'd be very surprised if anyone was lying about their vaccination status, but I suppose it's possible.

Patient zero has identified herself - someone she was in close contact the week before advised her of her positive PCR on Sunday, patient zero did and LFT and was positive (having been negative on Saturday afternoon).

Whether she should have attended the meal, knowing that her friend had gone for a test - presumably with good reason - is another matter.

I'm staying away from all group situations for the foreseeable. My frail and elderly mother lives with us.

Are cases quite high in your area at the moment @Stilltalkstotrees? It does seem unusual for so many to become positive so soon. Could it be that there was more than 1 infected person? What was the ventilation like in there?

@mrshoho

Are cases quite high in your area at the moment *@Stilltalkstotrees*? It does seem unusual for so many to become positive so soon. Could it be that there was more than 1 infected person? What was the ventilation like in there?

I don't know about ventilation as I didn't go but I believe they were in a separate function room at the restaurant. The event wasn't in our home town (but obviously the attendees were from our home town!) our levels were sky high (one of the highest in the country) a few weeks ago) but mainly in children. I expect it's spreading out to parents, which our members mainly are. Perfectly possible that there was more than one infector.

Current levels in home town 515/100k, event town, 330

I didn’t realise people were talking about this dinner, didn’t scroll back, but funny to hear patient zero for a social situation.

Takes it to a new level ;

I k wo lots of people get told off on MN for not knowing you can still catch it when jabbed but in the wider population, I do thinks there are LOTS of people living in blissful ignorance of this fact! Students at school are no longer doing LFTs 'because they have had the jab',as an example and 'my mum says we have all got colds because we have had jabs'.

Whether she should have attended the meal, knowing that her friend had gone for a test - presumably with good reason - is another matter.

No I don’t think she did anything wrong.

Doing LFTs before an event is more than many do anyway.

@MarshaBradyo

Whether she should have attended the meal, knowing that her friend had gone for a test - presumably with good reason - is another matter.

No I don’t think she did anything wrong.

Doing LFTs before an event is more than many do anyway.

I expect you're right. I, however, would not have attended in the circumstances.

At the committee hearing, Prof Sir Ian Diamond, the national statistician, said he had instigated “data masterclasses” for MPs and civil servants, in an attempt to improve the use of data.

But he admitted: “I’m not going to pretend you can do one data masterclass and flick a switch and everything is perfect.”
The upside is that the Government now knows it is scrutinised by members of the public who are contacting the regulator in higher numbers than ever. If statisticians cannot drive improvement, maybe the wrath of voters will

Piece in the Telegraph about the misuse/misinterpretation of data. Seems the Office of Statistics Regulations are getting lots of requests from (Mumsnet?) the public about use of misleading data.

It comes off the back of the consistently dodgy data of "patients in hospital with Covid", which currently includes 2,000 patients who were not admitted for Covid, but are there for other reasons and subsequently test positive.

This looks at the chances of false negatives at various points. It looks like PCRs before symptoms develop are more likely to have false negatives than false positives.

Can't edit my post, but I meant infected people are more likely to have false negatives than true positives! Sorry for the gobbledegook!

"Are cases quite high in your area at the moment @Stilltalkstotrees? It does seem unusual for so many to become positive so soon"

Interesting that for a virus that contagious none of the people had previously been infected or developed any resistance against getting reinfected so easily. Plus most would be vaccinated. Reassuring that nobody is dangerously unwell though.

Patients in hospital with covid have their care, and very likely the outcome, complicated by that infection. It is minimising to suggest that an infection that changes your blood chemistry and can affect every organ in your board shouldnt be counted.

A person attending a dinner may not have been told someone they were in contact with has gone for a test, they might only be told when positive. Did they all run to this separate location or as they might all want a few drinks were they on a coach or train? "Patient zero" may not have been the source of the infection.

@MarshaBradyo

Whether she should have attended the meal, knowing that her friend had gone for a test - presumably with good reason - is another matter.

No I don’t think she did anything wrong.

Doing LFTs before an event is more than many do anyway.

I don't agree.The law allows people to decide, but she was reckless. I would expect people who know they are a close contact to continue to go to school, to work only if there is no remote option, and to cancel social functions. If you're double jabbed, visiting someone else double jabbed and one of you had covid before - then sure, low risk, make your own decision. Going to anything unmasked indoors like a function or pub, or even unnecessary shopping - definitely not, you don't know who isn't jabbed, who is more vulnerable etc. The numbers suggest more than one superspreader though, unless everyone was snogging each other. Could be staff or attendees.

Patients in hospital with covid have their care, and very likely the outcome, complicated by that infection. It is minimising to suggest that an infection that changes your blood chemistry and can affect every organ in your board shouldnt be counted.

The reality is that for the majority of people covid is a very mild/ brief illness tantamount to a cold. Significant proportions of positive people have no symptoms at all. It is also very possible for people to test positive on a PCR when they have no live infection, and are not sick. (Hence people testing positive up to 90 days later).

So, yes, it’s important to point out this limitation in the hospitalisation data, and the health authorities have been keen to emphasise this themselves recently.

@Lockheart

I may be completely off the mark here (and apologies if this was already discussed upthread) but the map of cases on the dashboard seems to be flipped from the way it was earlier in the year.

Bolton, London, Leicester, much of Scotland, all blue or light blue when the rest of the country is purple. All of these suffered quite badly in the Delta wave.

Do we think there's some sort of (and I'm very reluctant to use this phrase) "herd immunity" from the previous spread of Delta keeping the growth lower in these areas?

I'm in Leicestershire. Our county's schools went back at least 2 weeks ahead of most other counties. Infection rates in school aged children were certainly sky high in my area. Then after a period things seemed to calm down. Purely anecdotal but I wonder if our earlier school start gave us an earlier 'peak' :

@containsnuts

"Are cases quite high in your area at the moment *@Stilltalkstotrees*? It does seem unusual for so many to become positive so soon"

Interesting that for a virus that contagious none of the people had previously been infected or developed any resistance against getting reinfected so easily. Plus most would be vaccinated. Reassuring that nobody is dangerously unwell though.

Just to say that those who have had it recently (within the last 6 months) have all tested negative or are too recent to retest and showing no symptoms. The 1 person I know to have had the booster is also negative. Not everyone's results are back yet but so far 7 of the 37 have communicated negative results. Some are very quiet - hopefully not because they are unwell.

One friend is feeling very unwell at the moment.

I don't agree

Her friend had done a test and was yet to get results.

How many here have complete knowledge of this and act based on this

The Delta version of covid produces a higher viral load and the idea that covid doesnt produce symptoms disappeared long ago - most people do get symptoms, although they may be asymptomatic when tested initially.

While healthy people sometimes test positiveup to 90 days later that really is not common. And when you are looking at people who have been admitted to hospital the infection is likely to be complicating whatever led to them requiring admission.

The NHS has to say what the government requires it to say - and the government wants to minimise covid. The reality is that the NHS is being driven into the ground and covid is a big part of that.

My friend is saying lft is now more accurate than pcr. I’m sure this isn’t the case, or if it is, it’s only in the case where you get positive lft and negative pcr with the lab issues. Is she right though? She’s saying they’re better than they used to be and reliable. I’m sure they’re mainly an asymptotic tool that picks up things that might otherwise be missed

I remember stats before looking like in rl they were dire at picking up cases. Better than nothing, but no pcr. What’s happened?!

@alreadytaken

The Delta version of covid produces a higher viral load and the idea that covid doesnt produce symptoms disappeared long ago - most people do get symptoms, although they may be asymptomatic when tested initially.

While healthy people sometimes test positiveup to 90 days later that really is not common. And when you are looking at people who have been admitted to hospital the infection is likely to be complicating whatever led to them requiring admission.

The NHS has to say what the government requires it to say - and the government wants to minimise covid. The reality is that the NHS is being driven into the ground and covid is a big part of that.

And yet there are plenty of people testing positive with no symptoms. Even if you do have symptoms, it’s usually a mild cold. Totally disagree that it’s rare to test positive with no live infection. I guess we shall have to agree to disagree!