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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

999 replies

boys3 · 26/09/2021 17:54

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
200
Bizawit · 13/10/2021 18:16

Interesting data thread on the whole south west positive LFT/ negative PCR debacle. twitter.com/artysmokesps/status/1448104130837458949?s=21

lonelyplanet · 13/10/2021 18:21

[quote Bizawit]Interesting data thread on the whole south west positive LFT/ negative PCR debacle. twitter.com/artysmokesps/status/1448104130837458949?s=21[/quote]
I was about yo pist that link too. Very interesting.

MRex · 13/10/2021 18:22

Thank you @boys3!!

JanglyBeads · 13/10/2021 18:35

Other sources are revealing all sorts of biases in their reporting on the issue - eg Sky extensively quoting the founder of a PCR company - hmm, can you guess what his take is:

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-investigation-launched-into-claims-people-are-testing-negative-on-pcrs-after-positive-lateral-flows-12432960

Also the Science Mediacentre, which I thought should be unbiased, v strange statements from two scientists, patronising at best:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-media-reports-about-some-children-having-positive-lateral-flow-tests-but-negative-pcr-tests/

boys3 · 13/10/2021 18:41

today's England spec date graphic.

Plus comparison between Monday 11th position as reported today and Monday 4th as reported last Wednesday in terms of case increase by age band - both absolute change and percentage change.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 13/10/2021 18:43

for English councils absolute and percentage change for start of this wk vs start of last wk.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 13/10/2021 18:44

English cases comparison this year v last year (bearing in mind the different testing regime; no possible LF anomalies to worry about this time last year!)

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 13/10/2021 18:47

and the more important health and fatality metrics. Deaths are within 28 days and based on date of death - hence more of a lag than admissions and hospitalisations. Just comparing the August to end October periods. All are seven day averages for England

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
OP posts:
MRex · 13/10/2021 18:57

SW hospital admissions are rising at a steeper rate than the rest of England, and dramatically out of proportion to the case rates. That means the LFTs are correct and the PCRs are too low. What confuses me most is that some people have retested and got a positive PCR later. If it isn't a different variant, then it's people sabotaging results. I don't know how PHE could actually fail to pick up on a different variant by now, they've had weeks of looking into this and could have asked for retesting. Suggesting PCR is useless would be explosive, so it would have to be kept under their hats while the issue is fixed. Likewise sabotage, the group responsible need to be uncovered before any announcements. So, my working theory is that either PHE will announce it's a different variant AND change to all tests, or announce arrests for test result sabotage. If in doubt though, I'd trust the LFT.

MRex · 13/10/2021 19:05

Look here on page 18: www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings.
Am I going mad or is Delta being obliterated by "other"? Did we drop the ball on checking all our sources?

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
Itisasecret · 13/10/2021 19:28

@MRex

SW hospital admissions are rising at a steeper rate than the rest of England, and dramatically out of proportion to the case rates. That means the LFTs are correct and the PCRs are too low. What confuses me most is that some people have retested and got a positive PCR later. If it isn't a different variant, then it's people sabotaging results. I don't know how PHE could actually fail to pick up on a different variant by now, they've had weeks of looking into this and could have asked for retesting. Suggesting PCR is useless would be explosive, so it would have to be kept under their hats while the issue is fixed. Likewise sabotage, the group responsible need to be uncovered before any announcements. So, my working theory is that either PHE will announce it's a different variant AND change to all tests, or announce arrests for test result sabotage. If in doubt though, I'd trust the LFT.
That’s because positive Covid cases are out and about in schools, workplaces and generally living their lives. It’s actually criminal what’s happening in the SW.

My very ill daughter (with Covid) negative on drive through. 6 positive LTF+ and now awaiting postal tests. My friend is now in hospital same pattern (positive on postal). This has happened to significant numbers of school staff and pupils in the area.

Covid IS being allowed to run free down here because negative PCR, back to school/work for you. A day or so later? More get ill or the original person gets really sick then a delayed positive.

Like I say, it is absolutely criminal what’s happening and I expect hospital rates and death rates soon to reflect that.

JanglyBeads · 13/10/2021 19:28

Can’t see on my phone, hope others can….

Can you imagine if it is sabotage from someone connected to the mad anti-vaxxers??
(Sorry pure speculation there!)

wintertravel1980 · 13/10/2021 20:27

People making dismissive statements about “PCR being golden standard” are right in principle. If an average person tests positive on LFT and negative on PCR, the best advice would be to follow PCR. Many scientists tried to explain the statistical phenomenon of false positive LFTs and their calculations and numbers are 100% accurate.

However… all the scientists emphasising accuracy of PCR over LFTs have not looked at the recent trends in some of the local authorities in South West. The numbers are jumping up and down which is not consistent with the “normal” case trend. Here is one of numerous twitter threads highlighting the issue:

twitter.com/ArtySmokesPS/status/1448105489112477696

Sudden jumps and drops do not necessarily support the hypothesis of a new variant. The new variant undetectable on PCR would make cases look artificially low. Unexplained ups and downs suggest problems with PCR testing in a particular laboratory/laboratories. It can be anything - faulty equipment / oversight / human error / even hacking or cyberattack … we simply do not know.

EvilRingahBitch · 13/10/2021 20:38

Actually even in the event of funny business going on, the ratio of LFT specificity to PCR sensitivity means that at current prevalence levels someone with a positive LFT followed by a negative PCR was roughly 50% likely to be infected, so should probably have stayed home.

wintertravel1980 · 13/10/2021 20:52

It does depend on what number we use for PCR test sensitivity.

The 70% estimate estimate that sometimes gets quoted does not appear to have much scientific backing - at least, I could not find it. There is one old study from the start of the pandemic supporting this number but it compares people tested positive with those presumed positive (based on their symptoms and contacts with positive cases). However, it was not obvious that the latter cases (those presumed positive but tested negative) were in fact infectious.

lonelyplanet · 13/10/2021 20:53

If it isn't a different variant, then it's people sabotaging results
Or just a problem of some kind at one of the labs. Not necessarily deliberate.

lonelyplanet · 13/10/2021 21:01

@MRex

Look here on page 18: www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings. Am I going mad or is Delta being obliterated by "other"? Did we drop the ball on checking all our sources?
Delta accounted for 99.7% of the cases according to that report. No new variants had been identified. This was up to 27th Sept.
boys3 · 13/10/2021 21:53

hospitalisation movement in the 7 day average by region. I could squash all onto one slide, but two is either with the SW shown on both.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 13/10/2021 21:57

the actual numbers in terms of the seven day average - these since start of September. Given the numeric scale differences the SW, SE and East shown on one, and the other four NHS England regions on the other.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
OP posts:
NandJ · 14/10/2021 01:04

50 day doubling time now.

Forget Plan B, we're going to need to push the red button.

weddingguestdec · 14/10/2021 07:05

@NandJ isn't 50 days quite a long time?

And if it doubled in 50 days, we'd still be well below the last peak..

Bordois · 14/10/2021 07:23

Oh, hi nanny. Fancy you popping up again!

Quartz2208 · 14/10/2021 07:48

NandJ this is a data thread about now and things that are going on not what potential mitigations (what on Earth would the red button be)

EvilRingahBitch · 14/10/2021 07:53

I was a bit baffled as to why we were meant to be so panicked by a 50 day doubling time. I didn't actually clock the poster.

tiddlysquat · 14/10/2021 07:58

BBC piece on lateral flows is interesting . Myself and DD never tested positive on lateral flows so wonder if it was due to low infectiousness?
Don't understand why it took me 3 pcrs to test positive though.

Testing system is confusing and must be missing an awful lot of cases.