Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

999 replies

boys3 · 26/09/2021 17:54

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
200
Bizawit · 27/09/2021 20:28

@lonelyplanet

Yes, we are on the rise - as expected. Endemic equilibrium does not mean that cases may never go up. They can and they will - but pre-existing immunity in the population will prevent exponential growth over a prolonged period of time. Can I ask how you know this and what you mean by a prolonged period of time? This is after all a data thread. I understand that vaccines have slowed growth in the vaccinated, but there are large numbers of unvaccinated who may not have pre-existing immunity. I can only imagine that the Kettering and Corby issue could well happen in many other places over the next few weeks. We may see sharp rises in a few places at a time or we may see a sharp rise in a large number of places at once.
We were told by SAGE to expect rocketing numbers - up to 100,000 cases a day after the opening up in the summer. We have seen nothing of the sort. Instead the picture has been very flat now for a couple of months, with little bubbles/ Pockets here and there in different areas quickly resolving themselves. The pattern is Nothing like the curve in previous waves. It’s looking v much like we have reached some degree of equilibrium. 🤞🏻 Who knows what will happen next, particularly with the spread through schools and the winter coming , but there’s reason to be optimistic based on recent trends.
lonelyplanet · 27/09/2021 20:38

Prolonged period of time would be several weeks in a row, with hospitalisation numbers reaching levels that could overwhelm NHS.
Sorry - I thought you were talking about cases.

With the slowing down rate of growth it is less likely that the Delta pandemic gets out of control (unless we see new variants or pandemic flu).
Cases by specimen date are still doubling between every 2-4 weeks. I think looking at this very bumpy graph from Oliver Johnson, it is impossible to predict anything with any certainty. But there is not a fast slowing down (of cases) at the moment.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
Bizawit · 27/09/2021 20:45

@lonelyplanet

Prolonged period of time would be several weeks in a row, with hospitalisation numbers reaching levels that could overwhelm NHS. Sorry - I thought you were talking about cases.

With the slowing down rate of growth it is less likely that the Delta pandemic gets out of control (unless we see new variants or pandemic flu).
Cases by specimen date are still doubling between every 2-4 weeks. I think looking at this very bumpy graph from Oliver Johnson, it is impossible to predict anything with any certainty. But there is not a fast slowing down (of cases) at the moment.

Case growth by specimen date is very slow, and over the last couple of days appears to be slowing again. Last week it was growing, the week before it was falling.
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
wintertravel1980 · 27/09/2021 20:45

Oliver Johnson’s graph is missing today’s data (I think). The Monday to Monday change (by reporting date) was only 9% (down from 20%+ last week).

boys3 date by specimen analysis also suggests the rate of growth is slowing down.

Bizawit · 27/09/2021 20:48

This is the 7 day rolling average by report date.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
Bizawit · 27/09/2021 20:51

Having said that Zoe has been very spiky again- including in my area which has been so steady for a while and is still falling in the gov stats. So I’m a bit concerned what that might be about…

cttontail · 27/09/2021 20:59

There's also the issue of PCRs failing (in SW, at least) muddying the waters a little. Does Zoe take lateral flow test results as confirmed positive?

lonelyplanet · 27/09/2021 21:06

Oliver Johnson’s graph is missing today’s data
He leaves off the last three days due to reporting lag on the specimen case graph.

He is suggesting that something looks odd with the cases by reporting date figures.
mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1442509639497797635

sirfredfredgeorge · 27/09/2021 21:18

Pregnancy many pregnany women refused the vaccine

Also there's still almost certainly a large testing bias in women vs men in this age group as there has been throughout the pandemic.

sirfredfredgeorge · 27/09/2021 21:21

There's also the issue of PCRs failing (in SW, at least) muddying the waters a little

Is there conclusive evidence of this, I have not seen a big increase in LFT false positives (and I tend to track them 'cos of earlier in the year when they were clearly not removing them) but it's not completely easy to get the data as its hidden away in sub day data (an LFT that is PCR negative same day never appears and one which is on day two you can't distinguish against new LFT's registered so it's all a bit guessworky)

Bizawit · 27/09/2021 21:28

[quote lonelyplanet]Oliver Johnson’s graph is missing today’s data
He leaves off the last three days due to reporting lag on the specimen case graph.

He is suggesting that something looks odd with the cases by reporting date figures.
mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1442509639497797635[/quote]
How come his tweets are protected?

JanglyBeads · 27/09/2021 21:44

Females are also predominant in school staff - more so at primary than secondary, but still predominant.
Yes the pregnancy factor must be quite large though.

borntobequiet · 27/09/2021 21:52

@JanglyBeads

Females are also predominant in school staff - more so at primary than secondary, but still predominant. Yes the pregnancy factor must be quite large though.
What I was about to say. Also, women teachers are typically classroom based, actually teaching, whereas senior leadership is heavily skewed towards men, with reduced timetables and less face to face contact. Plus TAs, lunchtime staff, counsellors, reception staff (who see a lot of sick children) and so on.
lonelyplanet · 27/09/2021 21:55

Looking at the positivity graph from phe, maybe men just aren't testing as much.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021
cttontail · 27/09/2021 22:17

@sirfredfredgeorge

There's also the issue of PCRs failing (in SW, at least) muddying the waters a little

Is there conclusive evidence of this, I have not seen a big increase in LFT false positives (and I tend to track them 'cos of earlier in the year when they were clearly not removing them) but it's not completely easy to get the data as its hidden away in sub day data (an LFT that is PCR negative same day never appears and one which is on day two you can't distinguish against new LFT's registered so it's all a bit guessworky)

Test and trace publish data on PCR to confirm LFT, but it's a week in arrears, so we don't have that yet. Week to 15th Sept was 87% confirmed positive. Just going on what I've seen reported, I'm expecting that to fall, but I don't have the data to support that as yet.
JanglyBeads · 28/09/2021 06:52

But won’t women always have tested more than men?

sirfredfredgeorge · 28/09/2021 07:25

But won’t women always have tested more than men?

Yes, and men have (in the young age group) consistently had lower rates haven't they? In the older age groups it balances a bit more, possibly as the older men are more likely to have worse symptoms and possibly more likely to live with people who'll encourage a test - so more caught in medical attention and less "we'll see if the cough's gone tomorrow?" having had the cough gone.

Also, not inconceivable that a higher number of young women didn't go the pub during the Euros.

I'm not sure looking at positivity alone though would help, anxiety disorders tend to be more common in women, so people who are perhaps over-testing themselves due to anxiety of the virus are likely to be less likely to be positive test and could make up a lot of tests.

Quartz2208 · 28/09/2021 07:39

DS has had an outbreak at his primary school (including him) and it is noticeable that if just one parent gets it it is the mother (some instances both mother and father). One assumes because the care role falls more to the mother. I didnt but my mum did because she was looking after him before he got it.

Its hard to segregate out an ill primary school child.

Also TA at school have it - those who are in closer contact and again tend to be women.

It makes sense school outbreaks (particularly primary) would go alongside an increase in women getting it

Bordois · 28/09/2021 08:19

Total anecdata, but only me and my primary aged son tested postive last week- my husband and toddler daughter both tested negative.

isthismineshine · 28/09/2021 16:19

Can anyone recall what cases were last Tuesday

MarshaBradyo · 28/09/2021 16:21

Thanks

MarshaBradyo · 28/09/2021 16:22

@traumatisednoodle

Cases in women in their 30s are much higher currently than men. Mothers? Health care workers

Pregnancy many pregnany women refused the vaccine.

Also factor in that during summer male positives were higher due to football
Quartz2208 · 28/09/2021 16:29

31, 564k so as expected slightly up

isthismineshine · 28/09/2021 16:33

@Quartz2208 thank you! Not tooooo bad

Piggywaspushed · 28/09/2021 21:58

Some more findings on Long Covid :

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/28/covid-37-of-people-have-symptoms-six-months-after-infection