Anyone want to predict when the next lockdown will be?

[MagicSummer]

I am guessing last week of August/beginning of September, and schools won't be going back when they are due to!

I think schools should get ready for a very real chance of starting the new academic year doing online teaching. With a further extension to key workers list.

Double 4.5k is 9k, is 18k is 36k...so only 3 doublings until peak jan hospitalizations. That's doubly 5/6 weeks.

Sorry typo...roughly 5/6 weeks plus lifting restrictions may bring it forward. So pretty much as whitty said recently.

@Bananarice

I think schools should get ready for a very real chance of starting the new academic year doing online teaching. With a further extension to key workers list.

So the same few children missing out again 🙄

Why is it so hard for some to see what's coming. It's like a slow motion crash.

October half term then Xmas

The second lockdown had more than 50% of children in some schools, traffic was normal, much more people out and about. The only reason it worked was probably because it was winter and most people wanted to stay home anyway. The fatigue was already setting in

So you agree it worked. Despite the presses take on it "most" people adhered to it.
Traffic certainly wasn't normal as most people who could, were still WFH and the shops were still closed. You couldn't go out for a meal or travel for visiting people. The roads, local and motorways were really quiet, in our experience.

Yes, you couldn't go to restaurants and shops as they were closed but do you really think now people will stay home and not mix with family and friends, especially now the majority of adults are vaccinated?

I think a lot would yes. I think a lot of people ,like 1st time, are full of bravado. I think if we start to see to the deaths like they were then yes, I think alot of people would reduce contact again.

Do I think that will happen, I really don't know. I think there is a very very high possibility that cases will rocket, I think he will backtrack again on his decision and realise ,too late, that we do need the restrictions in place in that of masks and social distancing and put them back in place.

I think the schools will remain in bubbles and continue to have their education disrupted, which upsets me, as my DS starts school in September.

This is not about being negative or moaning or anything else people who disagree likes to call it. It is my honest opinion of what I think will happen, and we will just have to learn to live with the disruption as our government is incompetent.

@MercyBooth

More nudging? We have had psychological tactics used on us for well over a year to the point that i no longer trust the profession. And you want more abuse?

I agree these people accepting lockdown already doesn’t help

@SonnetForSpring

Why is it so hard for some to see what's coming. It's like a slow motion crash.

Nobody can 'see what's coming'. Unless you can, in which case, I'll have the next Euromillions winning numbers, please.

We know that cases will likely increase. We know that vaccines reduce the risk of hospitalisation by up to 96%. Beyond that, we know fuck all, least of all if/when there'll be another lockdown.

As I said before, anything else is idle speculation and a load of old crystal bollocks.

I know who know so may psychics on mumsnet.
Maybe do some research before you decide .

A lot of gleeful hand rubbing at the (absurd) prediction of future lockdowns. Probably those in the public sector........

Current daily admission number 740, having doubled in 11 days. The current lag means that doesn't account for the euro final infections which might well cause a bit of a jump in hospitalisations.

4,500 admissions a day is less than 3 doublings. At the rate we're going we'll be back in January levels of admissions around a month from now, if not a bit sooner. Even if you extend the doubling time out to 14days, we've only got about 6 weeks before we're in trouble.

And that doesn't take into account any effects freedom day has on the rate of infection.

@MercyBooth

More nudging? We have had psychological tactics used on us for well over a year to the point that i no longer trust the profession. And you want more abuse?

I want people to be encouraged to get their vaccine, hardly psychological abuse. Do you have a problem with the advertising/marketing industry as well?

Whitty explaining why restrictions may be needed.

You may know fuck all. A lot of other people do know what's coming.

It's maths and biology... the government want you to think they don't know what is coming but its bleeding obvious.

Noctober the tweenth. HTH.

Incidentally, starting to wonder if the next pandemic is a flu of the 1919 magnitude, what will all the "but you never cared about flu' people compare it to?

@IRanSoFarAway1 I’m not a behavioural expert so I don’t know what form is best but I’d like to see differences in vaccine uptake across different areas and across racial and socioeconomic groups evened out.

Nah. Not going to happen. Stop instigating doom & gloom.

No lockdown but an introduction of a vaccine pass. I bet that’s what happens. It means those that are vaccinated aren’t penalised and will still be able to enjoy their freedoms

Otherwise what was the point in the vaccine for fit healthy people…..

@SonnetForSpring

You may know fuck all. A lot of other people do know what's coming.

Nobody knows what's coming. People can guess, some people with a degree of authority (and no, I'm not talking about anyone on this thread, YouTube videos are not 'research'), but even among those who know what they're talking about, predictions vary wildly. That's because that's exactly what they are - predictions.

It's beyond crackers, the way that posters on a parenting website ABSOLUTELY ONE HUNDRED PERCENT KNOW how the pandemic will play out and if you point out that they can't, because nobody can, they get all shirty. We've had posters insisting that cases would exceed 100k a day by 21 June. Then it was by tomorrow. And oh, how you were patronised and told how your head was in the sand if you pointed out they had absolutely no way of knowing that.

And just to be clear - yes, I do know fuck all. As do you.

As Eton break for half term a week before State schools on 16th October, I reckon ten to six on the evening of Friday 22nd October. Just enough time to fuck over the plebs and the posh ones can stay the extra week in their holiday homes before returning as normal, because going home will be legal.

In January 2021 1000+ were dying everyday of Covid now it’s less than 50 those admitted to hospital was in the 1000,s now it’s in the 100,s still high I know but no where near what it was . We are not going into another lockdown .