Anyone want to predict when the next lockdown will be?

[MagicSummer]

I am guessing last week of August/beginning of September, and schools won't be going back when they are due to!

Exponential means 100, then 200, then 400 then 800 then 1600. 3/4 doublings. Think about it.

A small number doubled isnt much. A large number doubled is horrific.

And just to be clear - yes, I do know fuck all. As do you. Ok well let's watch it happen again for the 4th time if we must.

@SonnetForSpring

And just to be clear - yes, I do know fuck all. As do you. Ok well let's watch it happen again for the 4th time if we must.

Whatever happens next - there's not a lot you can do about it. So yes, you'll have to watch it, just as we all will.

Still doesn't alter the fact that you've got no real clue what'll happen next, also in common with the rest of us. The thing is, most people don't pretend otherwise.

tbf, I'm not sure you need a crystal ball at this point.

@MagicSummer do you mean Lockdown as in shops and schools closed, only allowed to go out for essential trips etc or do you mean an increase in some restrictions again so Lockdown lite ?

It’ll be close probably

People will alter behaviour - this is probably not the best indication but many saying they will be cautious

Even then there’s a range from lockdown to some restrictions

Still doesn't alter the fact that you've got no real clue what'll happen next, also in common with the rest of us. The thing is, most people don't pretend otherwise.

If it makes you feel better to believe that. Go ahead.

I don’t think we’ll have another full lockdown unless we get a variant that escapes the vaccine significantly (which is fairly likely the way we are going).

I would put a lot of money on there being a return of some restrictions this year, possibly as soon as 4 weeks time.

@SonnetForSpring

Exponential means 100, then 200, then 400 then 800 then 1600. 3/4 doublings. Think about it.

My understanding is that exponential means increasing by a proportion (any proportion, not just 200% - it could be 0.1%).

@SonnetForSpring

Still doesn't alter the fact that you've got no real clue what'll happen next, also in common with the rest of us. The thing is, most people don't pretend otherwise.

If it makes you feel better to believe that. Go ahead.

It doesn't make me feel better to admit that I can't see into the future, it's just a fact.

It does make me feel better, however, to know that so many are vaccinated, and that vaccines prevent up to 96% of hospitalisations after two doses. Even one dose can offer up to 94% protection - that's a lot of lives saved.

In time for christmas

My understanding is that exponential means increasing by a proportion (any proportion, not just 200% - it could be 0.1%).

The doubling time is widely discussed and measured. I think its 9 days at the moment. Exponential just means increasing at a faster an faster rate because it's like you said, proportional.

I think they will keep things open until end of October/ November and then lockdown for winter with the pressure of flu season

@Egghead68 You do realise that the Daily Mirror misquoted Whitty dont you?

Ok I'll bite..... the way out of the previous lockdowns was vaccines, we've almost completed that in any adult that wants it with boosters due to be offered soon in the vulnerable, IF we lockdown again (and I'm not convinced we will) how on earth do we get out of it again? We have nothing long lasting left to offer

I think another lockdown is difficult without an exit plan last time it was vaccines but what this time? Yes lockdown brings cases down but they only stay down with continued lockdown. So any future lockdown is “this isn’t temporary until we have a vaccine but permanent as the only way to keep cases low”. So the lockdown lovers will get forced to admit that the hyperbole “you want to lockdown forever” was not hyperbole at all but just the truth.

Does the U.K. public want to live in a world where we end state education? (and replace with a few programmes from minor celebrities on the bbc yes mumsnet teachers at it’s “just the same as being in school” but are we sure? where families are only the people you live with (and prey let there be a lot of investment in social care to composite for fracturing family relationships! Yes I know grandparents don’t need to see grandchildren but how invested will grandchildren be helping later on those people who mumsnet assures me they never needed to meet?!

Ultimately it’s up to the public but before it was “lockdown until we have a vaccine” now it’s “lockdown forever because a vaccine doesn’t work” that is a different “deal” and my sure we can assume March 2020 compliance. But I will agree lockdown is a very popular policy but if you need to lockdown when 90 percent of your adult population antibodies then it’s a forever shift in U.K. policy and I think it it disingenuous to suggest otherwise.

I’m not sure what people want to wait for or what will improve

High level antibodies / vaccination now

@Wellbythebloodyhell

Ok I'll bite..... the way out of the previous lockdowns was vaccines, we've almost completed that in any adult that wants it with boosters due to be offered soon in the vulnerable, IF we lockdown again (and I'm not convinced we will) how on earth do we get out of it again? We have nothing long lasting left to offer

That’s the point, we don’t get out of it- not without a complete cure or at least an understanding that we can not live as we did Pre-covid. This will become clear very soon. The government know this as does every other one around the world, they risk massive disruption unless the public learns the lesson themselves.

Freedom day is the beginning of the end for Nightclubs and small theatres because the number of infections directly linked to them will be too high to ignore, enjoy them whilst you can.

We can not keep locking down though so some very big sacrifices will need to be made in the near future in order to keep infection rates manageable. Vaccines are only useful when they work, once we have a vaccine resistant mutation we are essentially back to square one, whether that happens this autumn or in the winter or even next year, it is bound to happen.

Our biggest mistake will be assuming we can live with Covid and expect to control it.

[quote MercyBooth]@Egghead68 You do realise that the Daily Mirror misquoted Whitty dont you?[/quote]
? Not sure this is aimed at me. I don’t know anything about the Daily Mirror

@Wellbythebloodyhell

Ok I'll bite..... the way out of the previous lockdowns was vaccines, we've almost completed that in any adult that wants it with boosters due to be offered soon in the vulnerable, IF we lockdown again (and I'm not convinced we will) how on earth do we get out of it again? We have nothing long lasting left to offer

We can and probably will develop better treatments and better vaccines.

But different people make different choices and that's okay

I am vaccinated but I don't want people to be "encouraged" into it. I think it's very important to hold on to free choice.

I disagree. Not that people shouldn’t have free choice in general but a) that this is a free choice, as I think there are high levels of misinformation affecting their choice and b) that it’s ok for them to choose not to get it. I really do not think that there are massively higher rates of people with legitimate reasons not to get the vaccine (like allergies or immunosuppression) in these communities and they are also generally the ones that have had the highest levels of hospitalisations and deaths so they are also hurting themselves and other members of their community with these choices.
Encouragement to make the right choice is hardly a new thing in public health. People are encouraged to stop smoking etc.

@Thewiseoneincognito the "big sacrifices" being made as far as I can see are going to be those who will inevitably get covid in the near future, the vaccines should help reduce the need for hospitalisation and therefore death. Economical sacrifices have already been made we can't afford to continue this as it inadvertently leads to more deaths. Loosening the restrictions and getting the economy rolling again is the big sacrifice.

We can and probably will develop better treatments and better vaccines.

Yeah? When?
And in the meantime we ruin the economy with restrictions leading more lives into poverty and kill them that way instead, as long as it not a covid death though hey