Anyone want to predict when the next lockdown will be?

[MagicSummer]

I am guessing last week of August/beginning of September, and schools won't be going back when they are due to!

Those who are sure there will be fourth lockdown. What do you think that will do for vaccine/booster uptake.

People will just have to get over... loved ones dropping like flies?

It's another wtf from me.

@MrsPsmalls

Well lock down in the Netherlands was about 4 days after freedom day, so on that score, by the end of the week. But Boris won't have the courage to do it straight away so probably about September 10 is my guess.

and @MarshaBradyo

The Netherlands aren’t in a lockdown. Their current restrictions are less restrictive than our current (pre ‘freedom day’) restrictions. They just reversed some parts of the final step in reopening.

Nightclubs are the only things closed. Places like restaurants and cinemas need 1.5m distancing. Masks are compulsory on public transport but not anywhere else. There is no maximum number of people at events or anywhere else (nothing like our rule of six).

Yes, do you want people to spurn vaccines? Further lockdowns is admitting the vaccination programme is worthless. If vaccines don’t work, where are we?

I know some on here are salivating about societal breakdown, and I’m not interested in their bilious views, but if we are at an impasse, what then?

I agree, @Siepie - I looked up the Netherlands, as going by posters on here you’d think they were all nailed inside their houses; far from it.

Siepie I thought that might be the case

Thanks for confirming

@DottyHarmer

I agree, *@Siepie* - I looked up the Netherlands, as going by posters on here you’d think they were all nailed inside their houses; far from it.

People love a good lockdown story even if they’re making it up 🙄

Walking around my city this afternoon it does make me wonder how soon the U turn will be on freedom day. 🧐

As for lockdown, this may come as a surprise to some that I believe this but I think we’ll drag ourselves through this wave, that it will plateau until autumn and then we’ll be back in either tiers or strong restrictions until lockdown 4 come Christmas.

People were adamant they " wouldn't partake in another lockdown" after the 1st, but they did, as places closed down and took that decision away from them. So yes they took part in another lockdown

I think he knows he's made a bad decision in saying no masks or social distancing, but he simply can't go back on it yet, he's made so many yo-yo/bad decisions he doesn't want to admit another. Plus his Tory cronies who are forcing him out of this early, won't back down.

I think if we make it that far, after a week or so of the kids returning he will start introducing restrictions.

All DC back to school for a day to ensure they've properly mixed with anyone they didn't see over the school holidays, before a new lockdown is announced.

This’d be my guess too. Early September then.

I want out of this hell but I don’t think we’re there yet unfortunately.

Truly don’t know if will happen or not.

Read this today:

““Coronavirus infections in the UK are surging again and hospitalisations are on the rise, driven by the spread of the Delta variant and the partial lifting of restrictions. Nearly all restrictions are set to be discarded in England on Monday, including mask-wearing and social distancing mandates. Whether this unlocking is permanent or temporary will depend on precautions taken by the public and vaccination rates, scientists have warned, adding there would probably be a surge in cases no matter when the remaining restrictions are lifted.”

“Some scientists have vehemently opposed lifting the remaining restrictions on 19 July, suggesting the government has decided to achieve “herd immunity” by effectively letting the virus run wild in young people, which they say will lead to disruptions in NHS care and education. This strategy would also lead to more people suffering from long Covid and raise the risk of new vaccine-resistant variants. Instead, they advise more people should be fully vaccinated before fully unlocking.”

“Although vaccine uptake has weakened the link between infections and hospitalisations and death – it has not severed it. With a high rate of infections, even a small percentage of people being hospitalised and/or dying will still be a big number, scientists have stressed. Sage advisers expect 1,000 to 2,000 daily hospital admissions over the summer after the unlocking, and 100-200 deaths a day, under what was described as the “central scenario”.

@MercyBooth

Those who are sure there will be fourth lockdown. What do you think that will do for vaccine/booster uptake.

If unlocking is clearly linked to vaccination and case rates in the messaging then hopefully the vaccination rate will pick up. In the area where my office is only 56% of adults have had one dose and 36% both doses. A lot needs to be done to overcome vaccine reluctance in areas like this.

@Zotter

Truly don’t know if will happen or not.

Read this today:

““Coronavirus infections in the UK are surging again and hospitalisations are on the rise, driven by the spread of the Delta variant and the partial lifting of restrictions. Nearly all restrictions are set to be discarded in England on Monday, including mask-wearing and social distancing mandates. Whether this unlocking is permanent or temporary will depend on precautions taken by the public and vaccination rates, scientists have warned, adding there would probably be a surge in cases no matter when the remaining restrictions are lifted.”

“Some scientists have vehemently opposed lifting the remaining restrictions on 19 July, suggesting the government has decided to achieve “herd immunity” by effectively letting the virus run wild in young people, which they say will lead to disruptions in NHS care and education. This strategy would also lead to more people suffering from long Covid and raise the risk of new vaccine-resistant variants. Instead, they advise more people should be fully vaccinated before fully unlocking.”

“Although vaccine uptake has weakened the link between infections and hospitalisations and death – it has not severed it. With a high rate of infections, even a small percentage of people being hospitalised and/or dying will still be a big number, scientists have stressed. Sage advisers expect 1,000 to 2,000 daily hospital admissions over the summer after the unlocking, and 100-200 deaths a day, under what was described as the “central scenario”.

I wonder how this compares to daily hospital admissions in Jan?

I remember the 40,000 number but assume that was in hospital at peak

@rubbletrouble

People were adamant they " wouldn't partake in another lockdown" after the 1st, but they did, as places closed down and took that decision away from them. So yes they took part in another lockdown

I think he knows he's made a bad decision in saying no masks or social distancing, but he simply can't go back on it yet, he's made so many yo-yo/bad decisions he doesn't want to admit another. Plus his Tory cronies who are forcing him out of this early, won't back down.

I think if we make it that far, after a week or so of the kids returning he will start introducing restrictions.

The second lockdown was vastly different to the first. In the first lockdown the streets were empty, only a small handful of children in school, queuing outside supermarkets. The second lockdown had more than 50% of children in some schools, traffic was normal, much more people out and about. The only reason it worked was probably because it was winter and most people wanted to stay home anyway. The fatigue was already setting in.

Yes, you couldn't go to restaurants and shops as they were closed but do you really think now people will stay home and not mix with family and friends, especially now the majority of adults are vaccinated?

@PattyPan stopping the lies and the nudging would have been a help

A quick google will you tell you the deaths are no where near previous peaks .
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

"I wonder how this compares to daily hospital admissions in Jan?"

From the dashboard as it was reported:
peak UK hospitalisations 16 Jan, 4532
peak UK in hospital 20 Jan, 39068
(Not reported on dashboard every day)

What do you mean by lies and nudging @MercyBooth? I would say more nudging needs to be done in the sense that I understand the word ie behavioural economics.

Give up November to save Christmas.

Give up Christmas to save January.

Give up January, February and March to save Easter.

Give up Easter to save the summer.

Give up summer to save the Autumn.

Can anyone guess what's coming next...?

@amicissimma

"I wonder how this compares to daily hospital admissions in Jan?"

From the dashboard as it was reported:
peak UK hospitalisations 16 Jan, 4532
peak UK in hospital 20 Jan, 39068
(Not reported on dashboard every day)

Thanks for this very useful info

Another factor is treatment time for admissions and if this has changed

Adapt.

More nudging? We have had psychological tactics used on us for well over a year to the point that i no longer trust the profession.

And you want more abuse?

FYI, again from dashboard:

peak positive tests, 8 Jan 68,053
2nd highest, 6 Jan 62,322

@amicissimma

"I wonder how this compares to daily hospital admissions in Jan?"

From the dashboard as it was reported:
peak UK hospitalisations 16 Jan, 4532
peak UK in hospital 20 Jan, 39068
(Not reported on dashboard every day)

Again a quick google will tell you . Those that predict lockdown go and have a look .