Feeling down, is the 21st unlikely?

[WaitroseAldi]

I keep reading on here and on the news that it’s unlikely to happen on the 21st. I feel so down about it. We had so many plans that will have to be cancelled. It feels like some normality then back 10 steps :(

I am living my life with social distancing and masks. There has to be a compromise.

And ventilation!!

Every scientist I’ve listened to speak has indicated it’s not known how this will go at this point. We need to see data

It’s only a few on here who are certain their version is right

Not true Marsha, dig around a little.

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1398337653683200002?s=08

What I’ve said is true

R4 brings a lot on and they all say same thing

You might think you are right as I’m sure you do. But I’ll go with them over that

blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/05/28/the-uks-response-to-new-variants-a-story-of-obfuscation-and-chaos/

the need for effective action

Effective action at this point means vaccinating as many people as possible as fast as possible, like Wales has done by running down its stockpiles, and substantially boosting support for self-isolation. Local lockdowns are usually not that effective, national lockdowns are not sustainable, huffing sanctimoniously at people for not wanting either is not helpful - vaccines and support work.

I would rather have the current level of opening up - and keep it reasonably securely, with a moderate but manageable rise - than have a wider opening followed by a crash down through the current level back into a form of lockdown.

Yes, i know that there are some things - events, theatres, festivals, large weddings - that are not currently possible.

However, I would be extremely unhappy to sacrifice what we have currently gained - most importantly to see other people in smallish groups inside across all the countries within the UK - as a result of reaching for 'that final step' under conditions in which it is obviously unsafe to do so.

@GoldenOmber

the need for effective action

Effective action at this point means vaccinating as many people as possible as fast as possible, like Wales has done by running down its stockpiles, and substantially boosting support for self-isolation. Local lockdowns are usually not that effective, national lockdowns are not sustainable, huffing sanctimoniously at people for not wanting either is not helpful - vaccines and support work.

and what about the rest of the world? Or is it only the UK that matters? There simply isn't enough vaccine but you're quite happy to use a significant amount just on one country?

I really think fighting against the situation and the facts is a complete waste of energy. We should be working with what we have got.

and what about the rest of the world? Or is it only the UK that matters? There simply isn't enough vaccine but you're quite happy to use a significant amount just on one country?

Of course it’s not only the UK that matters. I’m responding to what ‘effective action’ the UK Government can take to control the growth of the new variant in the UK, fairly obviously.

@SonnetForSpring

I really think fighting against the situation and the facts is a complete waste of energy. We should be working with what we have got.

What does this mean?

I’m ok with current situation and think getting data to make next step decision is a good balance

@GoldenOmber

the need for effective action

Effective action at this point means vaccinating as many people as possible as fast as possible, like Wales has done by running down its stockpiles, and substantially boosting support for self-isolation. Local lockdowns are usually not that effective, national lockdowns are not sustainable, huffing sanctimoniously at people for not wanting either is not helpful - vaccines and support work.

This is what I’ve said. Rather than pay businesses and people to furlough/close etc and lockdown. Up the paid support for those to isolate when needed. Too many people I know won’t test regularly or allow their kids to test at school as self employed or low wage/no pay for isolation and can’t afford to be off work for amounts of time.

Again I'll say the same thing.

Let's just say we lockdown again... those who won't comply
Other than seeing people outside of your household.

How else are you "not going to do it"

Break into a pub/ river island/salons.
There would be no other choice.

@WaitroseAldi

I keep reading on here and on the news that it’s unlikely to happen on the 21st. I feel so down about it. We had so many plans that will have to be cancelled. It feels like some normality then back 10 steps :(

I think the announcement will be that what we have now teams, businesses that can't trade yet will stay shut for a bit longer, masks and social distancing will stay for the rest of year

whether we open up or not 21st June, it is almost guaranteed that calls will grow in the autumn and winter to reimpose restrictions as case numbers inevitably rise.

Covid is here. It's not going away and we have to learn to live with it. In January the average daily deaths from Covid was 1,000+ but during May this figure has been just under 10. That is due almost entirely to the success of the vaccination programme (along with some natural immunity and seasonality). I would argue that, at a population level, 10 deaths a day is an 'acceptable' number - it really can't go much lower without 'zero Covid'. We always case numbers would rise but we have to hold our nerve and remove the remaining restrictions.

IMHO, obviously.

Let's just say we lockdown again... those who won't comply. Other than seeing people outside of your household.

Well that’s the main way.

However I’m in Ireland and we’ve had plenty of businesses open under cover. Mostly hairdressers / beauty salons, but also plenty of unlicensed pubs and even the occasional shop.

This black market stuff will simply grow.

@MarshaBradyo

Every scientist I’ve listened to speak has indicated it’s not known how this will go at this point. We need to see data

It’s only a few on here who are certain their version is right

I'm sure all the reputable scientists would caveat that by pointing out that on what we know already - more transmissible, vaccine escape, one dose isn't enough, hospital admissions rising already, exponential doubling times variable but clearly there - it has the potential to go very badly indeed.

The question as always is - will we let it, and learn the hard way? Again. (Not that we ever seem to learn.)

Or will we do something effective before things get out of hand this time?

I think everyone is expecting the schools being off to slow the numbers down for a week or two - but this is offset by the effect of families seeding the new variant all over the country on half term trips out.

So it's not "will it be bad?"

It's "how bad? And when?"

The names I remember Ferguson and Pollard really do say it’s on balance when pushed re June 21. Others whose names I forget more or less the same.

I think you can get Twitter feeds or blogs that match what you think but I prefer to let another system of selection work - ie who ends up on radio.

I haven’t heard anything that sounds as certain as the posts on here and I listen a lot. I’m not overly worried yet but if they were saying the same as the certainty on here I’d feel differently.

I went to a large public garden yesterday. When I went into the cafe to get a drink.i had a older couple stand within a foot of me. When I tried to keep 2 metres from.the people in front this couple pushed in front of me, so I retook my place in front of them. I dont honestly care because I have had covid. But I am assuming this couple are now vaccinated so rules dont apply to them.

From that, as I dont go out much so cant generally comment, it feels like less people care about personally catching it which but default means spreading it.

Time to test the vaccines for real

The next few weeks will tell as you can now see the uptick on numbers on the graphs. It's going up, like itor not. Time will show us if it significant.

That is due almost entirely to the success of the vaccination programme (along with some natural immunity and seasonality).

No, it is due to the lockdown (even Boris has stated this). The difference made by vaccination / seasonality will ONLY become clear once people are mingling more normally.

Marsha above criticising everyone else for believing they are right whilst insisting she is right and arguing she is right and no one else is.

Living with it means just that.

Living WITH it. With masks, distancing and better ventilation.

Many seem to think living with it means pretending it doesn’t exist.... which leads to increased spread and lockdowns. The opposite of living with it.

We need to live with it and mitigations.

@Drawcilla

Marsha above criticising everyone else for believing they are right whilst insisting she is right and arguing she is right and no one else is.

Lol good analysis you bring so much to a thread

I’m saying I haven’t heard any scientist it at be as certain as some on here

Are you that low in understanding and nasty you prefer to make a jibe

Guess so