Feeling down, is the 21st unlikely?

[WaitroseAldi]

I keep reading on here and on the news that it’s unlikely to happen on the 21st. I feel so down about it. We had so many plans that will have to be cancelled. It feels like some normality then back 10 steps :(

@WaitroseAldi

I keep reading on here and on the news that it’s unlikely to happen on the 21st. I feel so down about it. We had so many plans that will have to be cancelled. It feels like some normality then back 10 steps :(

I'm furious. This government had every opportunity to close the borders and stop this variant and look at us now. Feel like we are almost back at square one. 100% the UK Government fault.

@Waxonwaxoff0

Plus this time around many people have been vaccinated. That's a major difference from January and is already leading to less compliance.

This is a real issue - too many people don't understand the risk we are facing is DESPITE the vaccines. The government is not explaining at all well (deliberately) and the science is not quite the same as previous waves.

Oh and on lockdown - compliance with the rules has remained stable. The rules were amended after lockdown one as it is apparent that e.g. outside exercise is v low risk. I would expect the British public to remain compliant in roughly the same percentages - compliance is about personality/socialisation/sense of responsibility - these things are pretty hardwired into adults, of you were compliant in lockdown one and two, you are not suddenly going to have changed personality.

@picturesandpickles maybe some people are resigned to the fact its a risk we have to take now and happy to take it. Continuous restrictions are not the way forward. Its been over a year now, most have had (or will have) the vaccine, they've accepted staying at home and watched some businesses collapse, enough Is enough now

@picturesandpickles

Oh and on lockdown - compliance with the rules has remained stable. The rules were amended after lockdown one as it is apparent that e.g. outside exercise is v low risk. I would expect the British public to remain compliant in roughly the same percentages - compliance is about personality/socialisation/sense of responsibility - these things are pretty hardwired into adults, of you were compliant in lockdown one and two, you are not suddenly going to have changed personality.

Depends on the reasoning

Right now the need is perceived to be low so any action now wouldn’t go down well. Many comply because they get why - I did at least

Also fatigue and expectation. People can change on the amount they care about this desensitisation over time

Anyway might all be good

[quote Wellbythebloodyhell]@picturesandpickles maybe some people are resigned to the fact its a risk we have to take now and happy to take it. Continuous restrictions are not the way forward. Its been over a year now, most have had (or will have) the vaccine, they've accepted staying at home and watched some businesses collapse, enough Is enough now[/quote]
I agree some people are happy to take risks but all polling and research suggests there has been no waning in compliance and is unlikely to be so.

This 'enough is enough' is said often but really not supported by any data.

Polling is often cited but also see MP pressure that comes from constituents - this has changed over time

And health considerations did poll higher as a concern in lockdown 1 and have decreased

Right now the need is perceived to be low so any action now wouldn’t go down well precisely, so if people perceived there was a need, they would comply again.

If the wave does occur, and the government does call for lockdown, people will again perceive the need and again comply.

The percentages are not going to suddenly shift as that would require a massive number of people to fundamentally change their view of government, society, the nation etc.

The strongest indicator of future behaviour is past behaviour.

I have seen, and don't think it exists, any collated data from MPs. Happy to be shown any, it would be interesting.

MPs often cite the letters that support their own views tbh!

Sorry - that should be 'have NOT seen'

MPs want to be re elected and will be very aware of constituents’ views. Even I wrote an email on an issue (first time), I’m sure they got many. Then business owners will be a huge factor.

It looks like admissions are changing in treatment too so we may well be ok.

It would be great if we are OK.

But I think it is incorrect to think that if it looks like we might not be OK that the public would be significantly different about lockdown.

Humans are self-interested, if there are health risks, they will want to do something.

The risk to me as a vaccinated person is that hospitals/GPs/everything is overwhelmed treating covid. That risk remains unchanged from the first wave, it is only my personal risk of getting ill from covid that has changed.

@picturesandpickles

It would be great if we are OK.

But I think it is incorrect to think that if it looks like we might not be OK that the public would be significantly different about lockdown.

Humans are self-interested, if there are health risks, they will want to do something.

The risk to me as a vaccinated person is that hospitals/GPs/everything is overwhelmed treating covid. That risk remains unchanged from the first wave, it is only my personal risk of getting ill from covid that has changed.

Yes and to others the priority / higher risk could be to mental health or to business / other

This can have changed over time

I remember taking dc out of school last week of March and I definitely changed on that, not that the choice was mine to take

I’m probably a high complier but my attitude has changed. Especially if people are choosing not to have vaccine. Hard to know hopefully won’t find out.

I’m worked on a ward throughout this shit show. I can not do another lockdown. The last one nearly broke me. I need down time, time with loved ones and some fun to balance the stress and difficulties of my job.

I’m content at the stage we are on. I’ve just been away for a few days and apart from masks walking inside areas it felt pretty good. Lots enjoying themselves getting back some normality. I can go and eat, watch a film, see family at their homes and more. I’d rather stop here than go backwards because we fully opened up too soon.

Living in the greater Manchester area all our areas are seeing cases rise quickly now and obviously hospital admissions follow that. I think we haven’t had much time to assess the admissions data when it’s really spreading and higher cases. Apart from Bolton but that was a specific area for a while bow it’s spreading throughout the town will admissions increase even more?

With the Indian variant causing admissions in those not fully vaccinated and often younger patients now admitted who haven’t even had a chance to be vaccinated is three weeks too soon? For no measures at all? I always thought that was a bit of a dream date but right now it seems risky when we are so close to keeping it low. Maybe some of it can be tweaked and some restrictions remain? I’ve no idea at this point what is for the best and if it wasn’t for the Indian variant being let in and now spreading like wildfire It would seem more achievable.

I know the importance of that date for some that haven’t had the chance to get to work, have weddings, gigs, festivals and so on. My worry is if we let go of everything too soon we end up with more restrictions/lockdowns later in the year.

Too many people don't understand the risk we are facing is DESPITE the vaccines

Rightly or wrongly, I really don't think that narrative will fly with most.
There's been so much emphasis put on the vaccines getting us out of it, and folk remember that "vaccinate the vulnerable" has changed to "vaccinate everyone" - and will probably change again to "wait until everyone's had the tweaked vaccines" and then "here's another variant, better wait for another tweak"

People aren't stupid, and at some point it'll change to "Well, if the jabs aren't going to work as hoped, there's no point so we might as well get on with it"
And that's without the risk that some would probably stop getting the jabs altogether, because they simly see no point

@Puzzledandpissedoff

Too many people don't understand the risk we are facing is DESPITE the vaccines

Rightly or wrongly, I really don't think that narrative will fly with most.
There's been so much emphasis put on the vaccines getting us out of it, and folk remember that "vaccinate the vulnerable" has changed to "vaccinate everyone" - and will probably change again to "wait until everyone's had the tweaked vaccines" and then "here's another variant, better wait for another tweak"

People aren't stupid, and at some point it'll change to "Well, if the jabs aren't going to work as hoped, there's no point so we might as well get on with it"
And that's without the risk that some would probably stop getting the jabs altogether, because they simly see no point

You say people aren't stupid, but then you say people will say they won't bother because vaccines don't work. Which is it? Vaccines do work but not 100%, their efficacy is on a spectrum! Nothing in life can be simplified to black and white.

You say people aren't stupid, but then you say people will say they won't bother because vaccines don't work. Which is it?

Fair point, Sonnet; I should have qualified it to "some would be stupid"

Though in some ways I could understand their POV, if they feel they've been part of some gigantic experiment for little gain ...

This wave has the capacity to be worse than anything we've seen so far.

There's a general failure to appreciate how differences in the virus such as a longer incubation period, or higher transmissibility create a different pandemic.

If the government allow this wave get going, it will soon be clear to everyone that thousands of people just like themselves are in hospital struggling for breath.

At this point, even many of those whose biases and thinking processes prevent them from being entirely rational and clear-headed about this, will be able to see the need for effective action.

(Not those who think you can simply open up and things will go back to normal because if you ignore a virus it just goes away, though obviously - and definitely not anyone who is still saying this is like flu.)

Pretty much given up following this government shambles. Following the scientists medical experts virologists etc. If this means I keep myself out of some social setting for longer then so be it. Don’t trust this government (the political COVID policies) further than I could throw them and believe very little of what bj/mh etc say. Tune into the data slides and medics.

This wave has the capacity to be worse than anything we've seen so far.

That is just nonsense.

@PrincessNutNuts

This wave has the capacity to be worse than anything we've seen so far.

There's a general failure to appreciate how differences in the virus such as a longer incubation period, or higher transmissibility create a different pandemic.

If the government allow this wave get going, it will soon be clear to everyone that thousands of people just like themselves are in hospital struggling for breath.

At this point, even many of those whose biases and thinking processes prevent them from being entirely rational and clear-headed about this, will be able to see the need for effective action.

(Not those who think you can simply open up and things will go back to normal because if you ignore a virus it just goes away, though obviously - and definitely not anyone who is still saying this is like flu.)

Can you explain to me why it would be worse, as the Indian variant has been deemed to be no more deadly than any other variant and the younger people who haven't been vaccinated are less likely to need hospital treatment?

@AlecTrevelyan006

This wave has the capacity to be worse than anything we've seen so far.

That is just nonsense.

It is not nonsense. It's in the sage minutes. It's actually blindingly obvious to some people.

Well you can either choose to stop social distancing and live your life. Or don't. It's up to you

It's not just about how likely the variant is to cause death. Viruses don't want to kill people. They want to transmit to as many hosts as possible. This one is very good at transmission and therefore it's the fact the numbers transmitted will be much higher and the measures taken to slow the exponential growth will need to be stronger than last time. This is why it is prudent to get a lid on it now while we may still be able to. Every week we wait, means we will have to take much stronger action against it. I can't actually believe we have having this situation happening again.