Independent SAGE: Lockdown easing must be delayed

[FriedHam]

I see Independent sage have said that the lockdown easing planned for Monday must be cancelled. This would mean that pubs and restaurants would remain closed indoors and home visiting would not be permitted.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

Christina Pagel of independent sage has said this is necessary because of the Indian variant spreading across the country. However, there is no evidence that the vaccines are any less effective against the Indian variant.

Personally I'm just not sure that we can justify keeping businesses closed for longer and the inevitable job losses that will follow on the off chance that a particular variant may cause problems for the vaccine.

So is this a real danger that necessitates cancelling the easing or a desperate attempt by independent sage to remain relevant?

You can shoot the messengers all you like. Won't change the outcome.

@SonnetForSpring

Marsha, you seem to give taken this all quite personally. It's not actually about you.

Ha and here you are tagging me again

Don’t post to me then

Not personally at all. You couldn’t be more wrong. It’s amusing how upset some get at things.

Ok. If you say so :).

Princess the people with all the data can assess it.

You won’t have it all.

Even Prof Hunter (WHO) said he wouldn’t have what SAGE has. Unless you’re in there looking at figures you’re doing guesswork.

@SonnetForSpring

Ok. If you say so :).

Yep and if that means you stop tagging me then we’re all good

Condescending
adjective
having or showing an attitude of patronising superiority.

dogmatic
adjective

(of a person or a group) strongly expressing your beliefs as if they were facts

Ringing any bells SonnetForSpring?

Believe it or not some people just do not agree with you. Get over yourself.

@MarshaBradyo

Princess the people with all the data can assess it.

You won’t have it all.

Even Prof Hunter (WHO) said he wouldn’t have what SAGE has. Unless you’re in there looking at figures you’re doing guesswork.

No.

I'm asking questions.

The answers to which would likely demonstrate that the four tests have not been met.

The government is obviously anxious about this variant. The day after the elections were over it all kicked into a high gear, having sat back and watched B1617.2 cases climb rapidly since April.

No, they were met. It was recently announced. Analysis then decision based on meeting them.

But as you can see it’s a changing situation. We’ll see at 5.30

Well there we go. I’m relieved

Some emphasis on personal responsibility there. Creeping in already

It must be a serious situation for the government to be talking of bringing forward second doses.

I assume they'll start with the areas at increased risk - including London (which has the highest rates of the Indian strain).

@MarshaBradyo

Princess the people with all the data can assess it.

You won’t have it all.

Even Prof Hunter (WHO) said he wouldn’t have what SAGE has. Unless you’re in there looking at figures you’re doing guesswork.

Well SAGE reckon the Indian variant is at least 50% more transmissible, is capable of causing a peak larger than January's and of overwhelming the NHS.

How many tests does that fail?

I make it three.

When Indie SAGE and SAGE agree you know it's serious.

22. Considering this, it is a realistic possibility that this scale of B.1.617.2 growth could lead to a very large increase in transmission. At this point in the vaccine roll out, there are still too few adults vaccinated to prevent a significant resurgence that ultimately could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions.

(From the SAGE emergency meeting on Thursday about the Indian variant B1617.2)