Independent SAGE: Lockdown easing must be delayed

[FriedHam]

I see Independent sage have said that the lockdown easing planned for Monday must be cancelled. This would mean that pubs and restaurants would remain closed indoors and home visiting would not be permitted.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

Christina Pagel of independent sage has said this is necessary because of the Indian variant spreading across the country. However, there is no evidence that the vaccines are any less effective against the Indian variant.

Personally I'm just not sure that we can justify keeping businesses closed for longer and the inevitable job losses that will follow on the off chance that a particular variant may cause problems for the vaccine.

So is this a real danger that necessitates cancelling the easing or a desperate attempt by independent sage to remain relevant?

Well, 'Independent' SAGE are hardly going to say they agree with the government policy, are they?

Easy for them to say that things should be kept shut. They don't have to deal with the real world implications on the economy and society.

Well, 'Independent' SAGE are hardly going to say they agree with the government policy, are they?

Easy for them to say that things should be kept shut. They don't have to deal with the real world implications on the economy and society.

Risk of virus mutations which are vaccine resistant or start affecting younger people.

When does this risk no longer become a risk though?

It’s funny, I posted a few months back on a post about how the U.K. wasn’t at risk from a new wave. I predicted that we were at risk and was told I was scaremongering because we’re British and amazing and had vaccines etc. Seems the scientists are saying the same here.

You can find a 'scientist' to suit whatever your opinion is. And this group of scientists, despite the 'independent' moniker, are known to have an agenda.

Not to mention that in the real world, 'science' doesn't exist independently of other factors which also have to be taken into account by those who actually make decisions rather than offer their opinions on Twitter.

I agree with FlyLight :

"Unless this variant is going to completely evade vaccines and lead to severe illness and an overwhelming of the NHS then there is no justification for delaying opening. (Of businesses)

The supposed whole point of lockdown was to stop hospitals being overwhelmed; surely with so many vaccinated that won't happen again?"

I believe the UK can cope with variants and other strains.

Hospitals are not overwhelmed. the rates are very low. amore and more people have been vaccinated - a lot of people have had 2, many people have had at least one vaccination. this is good.

We must open businesses and try and get back to some semblance of normal.

The variants will be monitored. Bolton etc monitored. That is what should happen.

Indie Sage would be just the most fun party guests.. 🙄😂 One of them always pops up to say we must stay locked down forever. One lady said until there was zero covid worldwide 🤣 OK sure!

Indy SAGE are mainly scientists and doctors who were pissed off they weren't on SAGE "proper" - whatever the Government do, they say the opposite or do different, if Gov were saying we need to lock down for another 12 weeks then Indy sage would pop up saying "no need for that".....

I do think some of these experts who think only of covid may well feel differently if their jobs were not so safe.

Would Christina Pagel still be calling for indefinite lockdowns if she was about to lose her business and home?

@Rosehip10

Indy SAGE are mainly scientists and doctors who were pissed off they weren't on SAGE "proper" - whatever the Government do, they say the opposite or do different, if Gov were saying we need to lock down for another 12 weeks then Indy sage would pop up saying "no need for that".....

Pretty much this. And how pompous do you have to be to call your self-appointed group 'Indepdent SAGE'? Who are they advising, exactly? There is only one SAGE, and they are not it.

@FlyLight

Unless this variant is going to completely evade vaccines and lead to severe illness and an overwhelming of the NHS then there is no justification for delaying opening. This whole thing is getting ridiculous. The supposed whole point of lockdown was to stop hospitals being overwhelmed; surely with so many vaccinated that won't happen again?

This. We can't lock down forever for cases, only if NHS is overrun.

It's spring heading into summer and we're nearing 70% of the population having antibodies between vaccines and infection immunity. We're all very tired of restrictions and we need to have the economy running. Opening indoor pubs and restaurants will not cause a disaster at this point. Not opening them would be the irresponsible act, but Independent Sage do like to ensure they offer a contrary opinion. Just opening restaurants and having one household round for tea is really not running wild, so any increases should be mild and affecting only a few local areas. If cases rise a bit then any further changes on 21st June or other distancing restrictions might need to be delayed while 16-40yo vaccines and mop-up vaccines for older groups catch up to fill the herd immunity slack.

Wow, a bunch of upper class people demanding more lockdowns.

This is why we need snipers

I think Independent Sage have been absolute joy-suckers the whole way through this pandemic. I have been aghast at some of what they've come out with.

The Indian variant does concern me, I would hope it is being watched very closely and we should throw resources at tracking it down and catching it now before it spirals. But ultimately the economy needs us to open up. So many people need life to open up, too, for their mental health. The vaccines do work on the Indian variant, as far as the evidence suggests, and at some point we have to trust them. People can't take much more.

Well, 'Independent' SAGE are hardly going to say they agree with the government policy, are they?

Easy for them to say that things should be kept shut. They don't have to deal with the real world implications on the economy and society.

Well we’re in a very very fortunate position with the vulnerable all being vaccinated now, compared to the poor souls in India.

It’s tragic what’s happening there but it’s a different situation here. Now with the vulnerable being vaccinated it will be similar to the flu for death rate. Let’s not forget 20,000 people per year due of flu here each year despite the vaccine but there’s never any talk about lockdowns? Why’s that?.....!

No one ever suggested that there will be zero deaths even after having the vaccine. People will sadly die of covid, equally people will die of flu but not in the hundreds of thousands and that’s the difference.

I also find it astonishing that there is outcry due to covid deaths in developing countries (and rightly so it’s so sad) but there’s no outcry when millions of people die of dehydration, simple infections that could be treated with antibiotics or starvation. For some reason no one bats an eye lid as long as they don’t die of covid. In the 2021 no one should die of lack of water!!! It’s atrocious.

I’m losing track but does it evade vaccines

And if SAGE aren’t saying same thing, Whitty, Valance, JVT and all the other people I’m not that fussed by independent SAGE

It would be very bad for businesses to change now

It won’t happen on their advice so that’s one thing I suppose

I have lost track of numbers though in our area of London still falling which is great

Wow, a bunch of upper class people demanding more lockdowns.

This is why we need snipers

Thank heavens we have a high vaccination rate and immunity now. We are on track to jab everyone before aug plus boosters for variants. Hospitals have capacity to look after anyone who does get ill though I hope anyone with health issues can get a j Indie sage need to get back to their main jobs now please like the rest of us.

Well we’re in a very very fortunate position with the vulnerable all being vaccinated now, compared to the poor souls in India.

It’s tragic what’s happening there but it’s a different situation here. Now with the vulnerable being vaccinated it will be similar to the flu for death rate. Let’s not forget 20,000 people per year due of flu here each year despite the vaccine but there’s never any talk about lockdowns? Why’s that?.....!

No one ever suggested that there will be zero deaths even after having the vaccine. People will sadly die of covid, equally people will die of flu but not in the hundreds of thousands and that’s the difference.

There's no cases around here, not sure why we should be subjected to any restrictions

There is no booster for the Indian variant in production and WHO says there are signs that it does evade current vaccines.

@Rosehip10

Indy SAGE are mainly scientists and doctors who were pissed off they weren't on SAGE "proper" - whatever the Government do, they say the opposite or do different, if Gov were saying we need to lock down for another 12 weeks then Indy sage would pop up saying "no need for that".....

Pretty much this. And how pompous do you have to be to call your self-appointed group 'Indepdent SAGE'? Who are they advising, exactly? There is only one SAGE, and they are not it.

@Rosehip10

Indy SAGE are mainly scientists and doctors who were pissed off they weren't on SAGE "proper" - whatever the Government do, they say the opposite or do different, if Gov were saying we need to lock down for another 12 weeks then Indy sage would pop up saying "no need for that".....

Pretty much this. And how pompous do you have to be to call your self-appointed group 'Indepdent SAGE'? Who are they advising, exactly? There is only one SAGE, and they are not it.

Plus vaccines do exert a partial selection pressure on the virus and could result on more virulent mutations. The virus evolves to maximise reproductive success. It will continue to do so irrespective of our economic and social needs.

That's true. Humans also evolved to maximise reproductive success. As has every other living organism. We are supposed to stop the world until nature stops being nature?

@SonnetForSpring

Plus vaccines do exert a partial selection pressure on the virus and could result on more virulent mutations. The virus evolves to maximise reproductive success. It will continue to do so irrespective of our economic and social needs.

True. Humans also evolved to maximise reproductive success. As has every living organism on the plant. We are supposed to close the world until nature stops being nature?

Chatterbox if the under 40's are at minimal risk and it doesn't matter that they aren't currently vaccinated - how do we account for all the extremely young people affected in India right now with the variant spreading here know that this won't matter?

I'm not advocating stopping the release but I don't think it's all sunshine and rises like we keep being told.