Independent SAGE: Lockdown easing must be delayed

[FriedHam]

I see Independent sage have said that the lockdown easing planned for Monday must be cancelled. This would mean that pubs and restaurants would remain closed indoors and home visiting would not be permitted.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

Christina Pagel of independent sage has said this is necessary because of the Indian variant spreading across the country. However, there is no evidence that the vaccines are any less effective against the Indian variant.

Personally I'm just not sure that we can justify keeping businesses closed for longer and the inevitable job losses that will follow on the off chance that a particular variant may cause problems for the vaccine.

So is this a real danger that necessitates cancelling the easing or a desperate attempt by independent sage to remain relevant?

Well yes. International travel, which includes hauliers coming in and out of the country all the time, bringing in essential goods.

Yes just like all the countries who have or had proper pandemic travel restrictions. They continue to have (truly) essential travel.

In any case, the borders are not going to be closed and travel will not be stopped

That is true. For the UK. The government here prioritises international travel over the economy, lives, and health. That's why we have 150,000 dead, ruined physical and mental health, damaged businesses - and long lockdowns.

It's a pretty fundamental right to be allowed to leave a country.

The right to life and good health is more fundamental.

And what after the Indian variant? Another one will come along. This isn’t going anywhere.

Unless deaths rise we have to move on.

And I say that as someone who hasn’t been vaccinated yet.

@Tealightsandd int'l travel also affects the ec

@Tealightsandd affects the economy although I think we should pause for a fee months

@Tealightsandd the other countries you mention don't have borders like we do in eurooe and a lot will come by sea and air nit by road like it does here , you keep comparing apples and pears.
Holidays should be paused as non essentual but always a chance of variants just with essential goods too

@Thefourbells open up too soon
Its now may and we have been in lockdown for months ? I wouldn't call it too soon , we have had longer and stricter lockdowns than many places

@IcedPurple yes all non essential travel like holidays , if we have to have restrictions here then holidays should not take place
If I can't sit in my mums for a cup of tea legally then I don't think people sitting on planes with hundreds is ok
Obviously essential travel and I know with that we will still see risk of variants but a few months ban on holidays may mean other countries get numbers lower as well.
I think we will have to learn to live with covid , but I can't see how holidays can happen when restrictions are still in place in the uk

@VaccineSticker thats exactly what I meant , thank you

The government here prioritises international travel over the economy, lives, and health.....

You've said this several times in various threads. It's inaccurate and frankly, you've absolutely no evidence to support it.
It's against a person's human rights to be prevented from returning to their home country. You may not like it but it's a fact. I get the impression from your posts that it's perhaps because those people returning are Indian.
The economy has been massively supported throughout the pandemic. I shan't bother with explaining how they have because, frankly, you'd just ignore it....again.

@Roonerspismed

And what after the Indian variant? Another one will come along. This isn’t going anywhere.

Unless deaths rise we have to move on.

And I say that as someone who hasn’t been vaccinated yet.

The point of pandemic border restrictions and proper quarantine is that it's temporary, not forever. It gives time to fully vaccinate the majority of the population. We also have drug treatments being worked on, which could be ready by the time of a new variant.

[quote UsedUpUsername]@herecomesthsun

Some fine reading for you on the people beclowning themselves as part of SAGE:

www.spectator.co.uk/article/How-did-Sage-get-it-so-wrong

www.bbc.com/news/health-54976192.amp

I don’t necessarily agree with everything on these articles but it paints a dire picture of the people involved[/quote]
See, I think the Government has had some very good scientific advice, but often hasn't used it.

See here www.thetimes.co.uk/article/48-hours-in-september-when-ministers-and-scientists-split-over-covid-lockdown-vg5xbpsfx

I think some of the people involved, like Chris Whitty and Jonathan Van Tam, have been great. They don't have a crystal ball, they don't know exactly what is going to happen, of course, but the government ignores their sensible opinions at its peril. (and our peril).

Other people, like Heneghan and Gupta, have tended to be dangerously wrong.

It's not essential goods coming in that's brought the Indian variant in and allowed it to spread.

It's people travelling abroad, many probably for non essential reasons.

And then when they have returned they haven't bothered to self isolate.

And they have mixed, and others who have remained in the UK have mixed.

Whilst the majority of us have not had a holiday, have not mixed, have followed the rules and for many of us, not seen our family because we were not allowed to travel within the UK.

Now the flouting of the rules is putting things at risk again.

Yes the government have fucked up yet again, but people really need to start taking responsibility.

You don't travel abroad in a pandemic unless absolutely necessary, and if you have too, you follow the rules and properly self isolate on your return.

It's against a person's human rights to be prevented from returning to their home country

I was prevented from returning to my home country. I live in the UK. My home country is in the UK.

It was pretty shit. I could have probably taken it to court and the ban would have been proven illegal. But then we were in a really bad place, and travel was idiotic.......

Other people's human rights don't top mine.

Other people, like Heneghan and Gupta, have tended to be dangerously wrong

Don’t know about Heneghan but Gupta has been unfairly smeared by lockdown proponents. If you want to talk about dangerously wrong, I suggest you start with Neil Ferguson

@Wakeupin2022

It's not essential goods coming in that's brought the Indian variant in and allowed it to spread.

It's people travelling abroad, many probably for non essential reasons.

And then when they have returned they haven't bothered to self isolate.

And they have mixed, and others who have remained in the UK have mixed.

Whilst the majority of us have not had a holiday, have not mixed, have followed the rules and for many of us, not seen our family because we were not allowed to travel within the UK.

Now the flouting of the rules is putting things at risk again.

Yes the government have fucked up yet again, but people really need to start taking responsibility.

You don't travel abroad in a pandemic unless absolutely necessary, and if you have too, you follow the rules and properly self isolate on your return.

There may be elements of this bringing more cases but the only way you’d keep out a new variant is quarantine Aus style.

It’s too infectious. If you travel home from airport it can spread and you only need a few cases to kick it off in a new country.

Even in Aus with many barriers and high protection it has managed to get in.

the flouting of the rules

We don't know that any rules have been flouted; case numbers are still low so I don't think it's helpful to make assumptions. Someone could have left to see a dying relative or go to a funeral or work, come home and isolate - but because their infection only hits on day 14, or because they infect a household member who's asymptomatic, there is some low level spread. The rules are designed to accept that low level because people need to live their lives and can't all stay home indefinitely, they are not designed for zero covid.

With CEV loved ones, I have been fully supportive of all lockdowns and measures (indeed, thought the Govt. was too slow to act). I will continue SD, sanitising, mask wearing etc. at least until all adults have been vaccinated. If children are to be vaccinated too, I shall continue until that’s done because as someone about to receive my second vax, I owe them that at least after everything they’ve lost this past year.

We’ve reached a tipping point now though: the population is I think at far greater risk from economic damage and delayed treatments and surgeries, which the NHS is going to struggle to deal with, than it is from Covid. We must proceed, cautiously and carefully yes, with opening up.
Obviously, should new strains prove resistant the situation will have to be reassessed but there is no evidence atm that those currently in circulation are.
Anyone who has reason to remain very cautious has the option of taking measures they personally deem necessary.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01274-7

Article in nature summarising what is known about India variant.

"Evidence is growing that one variant first detected in India might be more transmissible and slightly better at evading immunity than existing variants. Animal models also hint that it might be able to cause more severe disease."

It's such a shame they missed the boat on stopping it getting into the country and community transmission here. I think most people would agree this is the preferred way of preventing variants. We really do have to sort out our borders if we want things to return to normal within the country - look at Australia and NZ - it's not like it's not possible.

But when things like this happen, you have to conclude the government don't care. Cruise liner worker flew into UK from India, no quarantine on arrival just a test before leaving - tested positive before boarding ship in Torbay after getting a coach from airport to Devon....then was somehow transported to Southampton to quarantine no doubt putting others at risk on that journey too

www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/cruise-liner-workers-india-stopped-5374550?fbclid=IwAR3TU0MAabD-F3NAfqEt2IIjJp58MIMI9fhTmatVRbAceDSwTph-XqufU0g

There is no justification to not reopen.

The Indian variant will almost certainly become endemic and the dominant variant here but most experts believe that the version we have has not eluded the AZ vaccine.

We need to do surge testing in areas where cases are rising and keep monitoring hospitalisations.

This is ultimately a vaccine evolution vs Corona evolution race and we can tweak vaccines faster than Corona can evolve.

Of course there are risks with everything but, with a low base level of cases and summer coming, now is the time to test where we are.

Tealightsandd, temporary? Just a few more weeks then? We've been told that since March 2020.

Christina Pagel is a zero Covid nutjob who would keep us locked up forever, or at least as long as she remains in secure employment and unaffected by endless lockdowns.

@LysistrataVickers

So what the fucking hell is the point of vaccines? I'm 39 and I won't be having mine because quite frankly there seems to be no fucking point!!!

I have had both doses but I am wondering what the point of scientists busting a gut to create them in the first place was tbh. Why bother if viruses just mutate to avoid it. Presumably it was known that mutation could have been an issue?

@TheReluctantPhoenix

There is no justification to not reopen.

The Indian variant will almost certainly become endemic and the dominant variant here but most experts believe that the version we have has not eluded the AZ vaccine.

We need to do surge testing in areas where cases are rising and keep monitoring hospitalisations.

This is ultimately a vaccine evolution vs Corona evolution race and we can tweak vaccines faster than Corona can evolve.

Of course there are risks with everything but, with a low base level of cases and summer coming, now is the time to test where we are.

How fast can we roll those tweaked vaccines out to 59 million people though? Given that we're in month 6 of the first rollout which won't be finished until the autumn. (Month 10?)

How many new variants can emerge in that time given how many we know about from the last 9 months?

Unsavoury SAGE

"INDEPENDENT SAGE a group of scientists setting themselves up to provide more accessible and authoritative advice than SAGE itself recently celebrated the anniversary of their first public meeting. They have doubtless improved transparency by pressuring the government to reveal who sits on the SAGE committee and all the minutes of their meetings to get a better understanding of "the science" the government claimed to be following. They also released a rude video (now deleted) attacking Englands chief medical officer Chris Whitty and the UKs chief scientific advisor Patrick Vallance.
This reveals more about the egos , politics and academic ambitions of Independent SAGE than it does about the CMO and the CSA. At its best science provides a safe context to form a hypothesis , prove it wrong, go back to square one and keep repeating it until, say you come up with a Covid vaccine. At its worst vainglorious academics rip each other to shreds on Twitter with a certainty that belies the fact that science is built on error and uncertainty.

Private Eye.