Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I wonder if there are some nasty stats on the way for today :(

A bit more of a breakdown by council area in terms of pillar 2 positivity and splitting out just the positivity at PCR level alongside the overall.

Broken down by region so I’ll post the three areas of biggest concern first and the rest later on today if time permits.

Each will show

Council type / area
Council name

Overall p2 positivity by week since 01 nov to 13 dec, then the most recent overall figure.

A sparkline to show rough direction of travel

Most recent week PCR only pillar 2 positivity

Ranking high to low by PCR only most recent figure

Then for overall p2 positivity the change for the most recent figure as compared with the position at 6 dec and 1 nov.

London up first in the next few minutes to be followed by South East and then East of England.

London councils

South East councils

East of England

East Mids

South West

Looks like I have exceeded my picture limit, so the remaining regions whilst ready to add will unfortunately have to wait.

Christina Pagel on the peak of the 29th December that we were discussing previously

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1345834332183785472

Just popping my head in to the thread to bookmark my place. It's been a good while since I've followed the daily stats closely but I began to once again in December. I'm so glad these threads are still going. Sincere thanks to all the brilliant contributors.

The stats are a little later than usual today I see.

They are usually 4pm but have been slightly earlier over the Christmas and new year period. And often much later especially when an announcement coming!

Tom Newton Dunn on Twitter:

I understand that the Joint Biosecurity Centre is moving the Covid-19 alert level up to 5 for the first time, the highest level. This means there is “a material risk of healthcare services being overwhelmed in 21 days".

It's currently at Level 4, “a high or rising level of transmission". It is this that has prompted the PM to impose a 3rd national lockdown tonight, sources close to him say, as well as today's new case numbers, described to me as "horrific".

Daily cases: 58,784
deaths: 407

And just out of curiosity:
29-12-2020 80,664

Comparing to mondays - report date - dec:
58,784 / 45,340 / 47,336 / 34,698 / 21,354

@TheSunIsStillShining

Comparing to mondays - report date - dec: 58,784 / 45,340 / 47,336 / 34,698 / 21,354

DISREGARD, it's the specimen date data, copied from wrong table.

By report date:
58,784 / 41,385 / 33,364 / 20,263 / 14,718

Deaths are still artificially low from the implied rate a month ago's infection aren't they - why? When will there be a catch up, ie it's a reporting delay, or what?

Can I ask whether anyone has seen a reliable data source for global vaccination stats? The progress being made on vaccinations in the UK is keeping me positive through these dark days!

Thanks @boys3, very interesting data. I'm braced for shocking cases and graphs at the 8pm press conference.

@PerditaNitt - not yet, but this article is a decent tracker for the current status: www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/.
It doesn't look to cover the number vaccinated in trials, at least not explicitly.

@PerditaNitt

Can I ask whether anyone has seen a reliable data source for global vaccination stats? The progress being made on vaccinations in the UK is keeping me positive through these dark days!

ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

By report date:
58,784 / 41,385 / 33,364 / 20,263 / 14,718

Even more stark for England only by report date:
52,180 / 36,511 / 28,242 / 17,882 / 11,623

If anyone has any doubt... I think we can officially say:
We're screwed

With that Monday trend posted by TheSunIsStillShining, we could be looking at ~80,000 cases next Monday. Cases are doubling roughly every two weeks.
And by 25th January, if nothing changes, this would be potentially 160,000 cases a day.

Just for comparison - by cases reported from www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
all for same time frame, starting today, going back to dec 7

France: - / 2960 / 5797 / 17615 / 3411
Spain: - / 8134 / 7503 / 9118 / 6552
Italy: 10,800 / 8583 / 10,860 / 11949 / 13598
Germany: - / 17323 / 19333 / 18658 / 15161
UK: 58,784 / 41,385 / 33,364 / 20,263 / 14,718

It is a stark comparison.
We started off dec in similar boat as DE and IT. They did meaningful things. We dithered. Even if DE skyrockets today I can hardly imagine them going into 50k territory all of a sudden.