Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@boys3 was going to separate out pillar 1 and 2 results, that will then allow you to look at rates amongst hospitalised cases though. Which might be a little lower because threshold for admission has gone down since March.

I can't remember - and can't find out - whether in March everyone who was admitted to hospital for any reason was tested or just if Covid was a suspected reason for the admission? I think maybe the latter - hence why people were being released to care homes without tests, because they weren't classified as suspected Covid - but in that case you'd also expect a much lower positivity rate in hospital testing now, wouldn't you? E.g. they're now testing you if you're admitted to labour ward, but those women are no more likely (maybe slightly less, as a group?) to test positive for coronavirus than the general population, no one is on labour ward because they have Covid.

"Christina Chirp’s theory about the 29th is that it’s the first day that those mixing on Christmas Day would have started to have symptoms."

Is incubation only 4 days - I had thought slightly longer but I suppose it's an average and in some cases would be 2, 3, 4 days? Though that should not account for any increase in tier 4 areas, as Christmas mixing wasn't allowed? (or were there exceptions beyond the usual linked household exceptions....can't remember, seems so long ago!)

Good point - I think it was hospital patients with symptoms only, I have a vague recollection of a press conference explaining that. There wouldn't have been enough tests to test all admissions at that point would there?

Yes hardbackwriter and thank you Aixenprovence for bearing with me while I grapple with this thought which seems to be just at the edge of my brain!

So, we have similar positivity rate, in London, now to that which we had at a point in March when we were only testing people in hospital.

As has been pointed out, these are not comparable. But I also think this tells us something.

What we are missing is:
Who was being tested in hospital in March?
(was probably a bit all over the show given how new it all was)

What was the positivity rate in wider population? We won’t ever know because we weren’t testing. However, population seroprevalence suggested ~15% in London in early summer. This is also not directly comparable, for various reasons.

Can we make a measure now which is more comparable to what was being tested in March?

What is pillar 1 positivity rate now? Where would we get the data to make that calculation?

Perhaps ask yourself now, what would you expect to see in the positivity rate for pillar 1 only? Why?

Are there any charts tracking weekly rates of the new variant?

The pdf report is a useful summary of the history of testing
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8897/

Testing criteria from mid March were

1. all patients in critical care for pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) or flu like illness;
2. all other patients requiring admission to hospital for pneumonia, ARDS or flu like illness; and
3. where an outbreak has occurred in a residential or care setting, for example long-term care facility prisons.

Thanks, ceeveebee - all I could find when I looked was references to 'prioritising' patients with symptoms in hospital but not confirmation that they were the only ones eligible back then.

(Irrelevant side note - looking at old news stories from March, gosh it feels like a world and a life time away!)

"Perhaps ask yourself now, what would you expect to see in the positivity rate for pillar 1 only? Why?"

Everything, I think positivity rate under pillar 1 would be lower now for any given prevalence in society, because everyone admitted to hospital is now tested under Pillar 1*, whereas only those listed in ceevee's post were being tested in March. Presumably the pillar 1 positivity is available somewhere, but maybe not on the dashboard? If it's the same as the positivity rate in March then that would suggest prevalence in society is higher.

*but just to complicate things, the govt website says Pillar 1 testing is for those in NHS hospitals with a clinical need - so is everyone admitted to hospital in fact tested?!

*but just to complicate things, the govt website says Pillar 1 testing is for those in NHS hospitals with a clinical need - so is everyone admitted to hospital in fact tested?!

You'd hope so because they should be trying to keep positive patients separated from negative ones? But in practice I don't know. I do know about maternity where (at my local hospital at least) they definitely test all admissions, but then there is also a particular clinical need there, as they do a bit of extra monitoring/checks on you and baby if you're positive.

yes my impression was certainly all hospital admissions are now tested - it was only when I went back to check the definition that i started to have doubts. As you say, they will be aiming to separate patients with corona (I assume!) so there is always a 'clinical need' - so perhaps that covers that.

@Sunshinegirl82

[In relation to the question yesterday eve about initial data suggesting that perhaps cases in many of the worst hit counties (Kent/Essex) are topping out/plateauing - sort the table on www.covidmessenger.com by county to see quite a few "green" councils (ie falling cases week over week) in both Kent and Esex)]

Sorry late reply - tricky bedtimes here at the moment.

It really could be a data anomaly. Although it is interesting that it's evident in the worst-hit, highest tier counties.

I suspect it relates to the combination of school closures and the tough tier 4 restrictions brought in before Christmas plus change in peoples behaviour.

I do think schools closing end of term should start contributing to falling transmissions and should start to be seen in the data.

Also (this is entirely anecdotal/my observation) being in tier 4 Kent and seeing it first hand perhaps there is something in it - or perhaps it is coincidental:

There seemed to be quite common trend in families who had planned to see elderly parents over the Christmas period (before the rules changed for tier 4) - they chose to self-isolate/reduce contacts significantly for the 7-10 prior to the christmas period to keep their relatives safe.

I know quite a few who did this and it was very noticeable in the local sports grounds on Dec 19th which would usually be busy with kids training sessions (albeit in bubbles) - there was a hugely reduced turnout.

I suspect it is very hard to point to one factor alone and it will be a combination. I am hoping the plateau in data we see is "real" rather than holiday data driven. I guess we will have to wait and see.

I've seen references in a few places to people 'knowing' how many COVID cases are in their local hospitals & how overwhelmed they are. I can't find anything like that in the NHS hospital data linked in the first post. Does anyone know please whether and where this data is published?

I will put something a bit more visually pleasing (visual taste dependent of course) later. However a quick initial look at pillar 2 specifically.

England overall last seven days to 01 Jan 17.1%, so more than double the mid December position of 8.8%.

PCRs 19.4% vs 9.7%. PCRs just over 85% of p2 tests

LFs 3% positivity vs 0.9% mid December. Volumes are increasing at 15% of p2 tests as compared with 10% in mid December.

Significant regional differences. The order below is all P2 test positivity, then PCR then LF.

London 25.0 / 28.0 / 5.6

East 17.8 / 19.5 / 3.5

South East 17.2 / 19.3 / 2.1

West Mids 16.8 / 19.4 / 2.8

North East 15.0 / 16.0 / 1.5

East Mids 14.5 / 16.0 / 1.5

North West 13.5 / 17.5 / 2.7

Yorks and Humber 12.7 / 14.2 / 1.6

South West 10.5 / 11.3 / 1.2

The PCR / LF split also varies significantly. Over 25% of p2 tests in North west lateral flows; 16% in west mids; 13% in London down to just under 7% in the North East.

At just PCR level looking at some of the London boroughs

Newham 33.9

Enfield 32.1

Tower Hamlets 31.7

Westminster 31.3

Bexley 29.9

And if you went down to LSOA level in newham for example rates pass 50%.

@littleowl1 do you think you can see the rise spilling out into surrounding areas, or is that just a reflection of the fact that rates are rising nearly everywhere except those bits of Essex and Kent so of course they are in the rest of those counties? I live in one of the bits of Essex that went into tier 4 later than the 'hotspots' and I've watched as our rates just climb and climb...

Totally anecdotally, I definitely think there was some complacency where I am until very recently, and maybe still now, that it was South Essex's problem, and that we were fine, they were just making Essex look bad as a whole. It was actually pretty distasteful because (as in lots of places) the worst hit places were largely more deprived and areas that tend to be looked down on anyway, and so I heard (saw on local FB/news sites) some pretty gross jokes from people in our much more affluent bit about how 'they could just nuke Basildon; no loss anyway' and a lot of snobbery about how of course people in Basildon/Southend couldn't follow the rules and we'd be fine because we're much better people.

@AdventureIsWaiting

I've seen references in a few places to people 'knowing' how many COVID cases are in their local hospitals & how overwhelmed they are. I can't find anything like that in the NHS hospital data linked in the first post. Does anyone know please whether and where this data is published?

If you go here: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare and click the down arrow next to 'Healthcare in United Kingdom' at the top you can see it for an individual region or trust.

@Hardbackwriter

Phhh - that is a really tough question. It so variable from council to council. My area was one of the "best" in Kent and we are now really feeling it with sky rocketing cases. There was a massive lack of awareness through Dec about the gravity of the situation - no one seemed aware many of our hospitals were full and patients being diverted.

It's been an ongoing annoyance to me that local information doesnt seem to be getting to local people - it gets lost in the national headlines with few understanding what is happening on their doorstep. This was the very reason I started Covid Messenger.

In relation to my earlier point, if I find some time today I will collate a historical cases per 100K chart with the key restriction changes labelled. It doesn't prove causality but the trends are fairly clear nonetheless.

It's the same round here hardback with an added frisson of casual (or occasionally overt) racism.

Local information. In October when cases were sky high in the Hull and surrounding area our local BBC news channel Look North started giving out some details but not all. Viewers soon asked for more detail and they now give a daily breakdown of cases, hospital admissions and deaths in council areas. Those mentioned above South Kesteven are noticeably rising atm.

Thank you very much indeed boys3

Interesting from a local PHdirector:

https://www.northamptonchron.co.uk/health/coronavirus/greencore-inside-story-health-chiefs-battle-government-over-covid-outbreak-northampton-factory-3084605?fbclid=IwAR1Ib7tb4IjYsvwZHMqW37FwcAFPTC7V1bptIBdZG4w33U0hA5gg_KrrhcQ

@JanuaryChill that’s our spectacularly highly centralised form of government for you. Diktat from the centre. The centre always knows best. Don’t expect it to change anytime soon.

The drama about the Novichok poisoning in Salisbury was interesting : showed the political pressure PH people come under.

Boris announcement at 8pm tonight in case not already seen the news