Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Sorry, posted too soon, forgot the fineprint/caveat:
the above is just one data slice, not full analysis on any kind of full(ish) set of data. It's just looking at one facet and thinking out loud. No real revelations and truths should be associated with it :)

Although @TheSunIsStillShining is it also partly a function of our home-grown super-transmissible variant? Not that that helps of course.

They did meaningful things. They really didn't do anything different to us.......

We started off dec in similar boat as DE and IT. They did meaningful things. We dithered. Even if DE skyrockets today I can hardly imagine them going into 50k territory all of a sudden.

I actually really disagree. Neither Germany or Italy had restrictions that were more coherent, rational or really more stringent than ours - they both were tighter in some areas but looser in others in terms of what was allowed. I really think the difference is this new variant.

Although @TheSunIsStillShining is it also partly a function of our home-grown super-transmissible variant? Not that that helps of course.

Yes, and the schools madness, not bothering to make them as safe as was possible, which is of course linked to the new variant as is where most new variant infections are. Most other countries did more to make schools safer.

UK Vaccine numbers are only getting updated weekly at the moment. I know it's totally meaningless but I'm looking forward to the day (hopefully soon) when the number of people vaccinated surpasses the number of people who have had the virus, in the UK - currently 2.7m.

Local anecdote- about 1/4 of the people who had their first vaccines are having the second dose on schedule with the other 3/4 having to delay it. 80+ and healthcare workers as far as I can tell.

Boys3

Thank you so much, that is incredibly useful and I will be going back and taking a good look at that later.

I didn’t even know there was a picture limit!!

Back to today’s figures....Looking at cases by specimen date, unfortunately it looks like 29th December was not an outlier. There is a massive hike in daily positive cases after Christmas.

Hi folks, the council table on the www.covidmessenger.com is updated with today's data for those interested.

@BigWoollyJumpers @Hardbackwriter
they had mandatory masks in school if nothing else.
That is in itself huge.

Germany partially closed schools on Dec 9.
Italy on Nov. 2

education.org/country-tracker

But you are very possibly right with the new strain playing a huge role as well.

from bbc

Reported numbers quite high today - though no huge spike as suggested. The UK graph for specimen date doesn't show the last few days for some reason. But if you change it to England, it does look as if the 29/30th were high points and case rates have come down a little in the last few days. We'll be able to be surer on that in a couple more days.

littleowl1

Thanks for posting the link each day, I find it really useful.

I notice that the case rate in Cornwall has tripled in the 7 days up to the 30th compared to the previous 7 days. I don't live there but the county has maintained relatively low numbers throughout so to see it go from well under 100 cases per 100k to nearly 300 in a week gives me some idea of how transmittable the new variant is.

@Firefliess

Reported numbers quite high today - though no huge spike as suggested. The UK graph for specimen date doesn't show the last few days for some reason. But if you change it to England, it does look as if the 29/30th were high points and case rates have come down a little in the last few days. We'll be able to be surer on that in a couple more days.

I wouldn't hold my breath, it might be just lag of adding it to specimen data as we move along

Feeling nostalgic for last week's numbers. Notice how the scale is changing 😞

I find this view of reported cases to be quite useful, from RP131 Twitter
It shows the ways that cases are allocated to specimen dates. He updates it every day.

twitter.com/rp131/status/1346137562180677632?s=21

It looks to me that there is quite a lot of regional variation in how long it takes tests to be reported eg

Of Greater Manchester cases reported today, 70% were from 2 Jan or later.
Of London cases reported today, only 45% were from 2 January of later. Similar for Kent and Medway.

Hence there is a false impression of a dip in the regions where testing seems to be slower

Presumably reflects demand in London/Kent vs Manchester

Isle of Wight .

Tier 1 after lockdown.

48 cases between 1st and 13th December including 2 days with zero cases.

29th December to 2nd Jan 1081 cases - with several of those days not fully complete yet.

@FOJN No problem!

@everythingthelighttouches

Just make sure you are sitting down and have a large gin to hand.

Dispense with the tonic.

Yes - of course - but to @Firefliess point, you can’t really look look at the figures for England as a whole until at the 5 days has elapsed, as the areas with the most cases are generally the slowest to report. Dips more likely to be delayed reporting than actually reductions

TheSun let us look at these countries in a week or so & see how they are.

The UK has done a very good job at processing tests during the holiday period.

Just looking at how all over the place the other figures are suggests to me that other countries have not!

Once they have cleared their backlog then I suspect they will not be as high as UK, but growing again.

And this new variant is the key problem. My area for example has managed incredibly well since September and cases were very low at end of lockdown 2.0. We now seem to have the new variant and cases going through the roof- actually children are still showing as green on heat map- so not related to schools it would seem.

@Hardbackwriter Thanks very much!

@sirfredfredgeorge

Deaths are still artificially low from the implied rate a month ago's infection aren't they - why? When will there be a catch up, ie it's a reporting delay, or what?

Thinking about this, it's still weekend figures today, and all of the figures for last week are all over the place due to Christmas and New year. I'm guessing we'll start to see the numbers come in tomorrow and Wednesday, but hope not :(

@ceeveebee part of that apparent discrepancy may be the current disproportionate amount of LF tests in the North West as compared with the rest of England. It is an interesting point though that would be useful to get fully to the bottom of.

@Wakeupin2022
I'm very sorry but at this point your optimism about the UK is frustrating.
We could have avoided ALL of this. So I don't see any reason to be optimistic as nothing has changed: gov is the same, ppl are the same.

We are moving early feb. We complied with an agency sending photographer on the 24th. Which is xmas day where we come from.
Now landlord mandated another agency who wants to come and take photos, do a virtual tour video. I would really love to tell them no. Also next week the estate management booked inside window cleaning. At least we could opt out. I just despair.