Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Thanks @TheSunIsStillShining

Yes - all makes sense

I think hypotheses 2 and 4 can be ruled out.
There were actually less tests conducted under pill2 than prev 2 days

It annoys me that we can't get case numbers by pillar types.
It would be interesting to see specific positvity rates per pillar.

@TheSunIsStillShining

I think hypotheses 2 and 4 can be ruled out. There were actually less tests conducted under pill2 than prev 2 days

But I think that data is consistent - it will be the the tests reported from the 30th/31st that correlate to the specimen date of 29th; few tests are going to be analysed the same day they are collected.

So I think the hypotheses are valid.

@TheSunIsStillShining

It might be possible to extract this through the API. There have been a few requests on here for extra data/insight from the dashboard (like historical cases by MSOA was asked for as well this week).

They expose more data programmtically through the API (which I use) than through the dashboard.

With DD off school I just haven't had the time to check what is/isn't available - but I have been meaning to. I might be able to find the time once she is a few days back into term if homeschooling goes smoothly - although that is probably VERY optimistic. But it is on my list to check....

@littleowl1 I wonder if people suddenly needed a test when they were expected back at work, also I read on here that the postal collections were taken then for a few days previous.

Whatever happens with schools I'd expect another massive test requirement on Monday again.

@PatriciaHolm
Are you sure? It's not what I make of the numbers

It would be interesting, sun. Where is that handy table from - also the dashboard? Does that also rule out hypothesis 1 - not sure where the mail-ins appear in the table?
What's the incubation period - average 5-6 days I think - which means 29th figures could be some Christmas day mixing but also some pre-25th Dec infections? And nearly all infected while schools closed?

Out of curiosity I the positvity rate for all of Dec.

What is interesting though that if you look at ourworldindata the positivity rate for the country is different than my column.

I'm guessing because they do it by report date and this is by specimen date.
Would that be right? Or was I too quick to actually think and made a mess? :)

That's quite startling (29th), and weird isn't it @TheSunIsStillShining ?

I have updated the table of councils on www.covidmessenger.com. This is for specimen dates of Dec 27th

So increase in cases for specimen dates for Dec 28th wont be published until tomorrow eve as there is still an estimated 8-10% of cases not reported (based on the reporting lag evident in the prior week).

@Aixenprovence
This is my excel sheet that I quickly did. :)
@littleowl1 do you have to pay for the API? and what format do you get: xml or json?

@JanuaryChill

That's quite startling (29th), and weird isn't it *@TheSunIsStillShining* ?

Could it be an error somehow??

Thank you @patriciaholm

Was so busy posting about the 29th and the thread closed! Missed discussion on postal voting.

mobile.twitter.com/RP131/status/1345396631777247234

~75k on 29th is fecking terrifying.

Does anyone know positivity rate that day?

It is also 4 days from Christmas Day mixing which is bad.

On the other hand, Looking at the animated gif from rp131, there is a massive chunk (pink bit of bar on 29th) which is a lot bigger than the green part of the bar for the next day, which is making me hopeful that tomorrow we will find out 30th wasn’t as bad...

The animated gif of new cases reported today might be more useful than the still image (usually blue with yellow) in this case.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@PatriciaHolm
Are you sure? It's not what I make of the numbers[/quote]
@TheSunIsStillShining

Yes: that 347,445 (of which 257,286 is Pillar 2) for the 29th, is "Number of confirmed positive, negative or void COVID-19 test results" reported on that day. Those are mostly going to relate to specimen dates earlier than that.

The number of P2 tests reported went up significantly to 317,551 then on the 30th which makes sense.

It's a pattern that has been observed quite a lot before; for example, for Dec 21, the previous spike. Number of P2 tests for 21st is 335,252, but then for 22nd 348k and 23rd 404k.

Also, the lowest test numbers for the past week is 26th, reflecting the lower number of specimens from the 25th.

@PatriciaHolm
I'm open for debate :)
I don't see at as you, but I said many times - i'm a cynical b*tch, don't mind me

@TheSunIsStillShining

What is interesting though that if you look at ourworldindata the positivity rate for the country is different than my column.

I'm guessing because they do it by report date and this is by specimen date.
Would that be right? Or was I too quick to actually think and made a mess? :)

Because they are using the rolling 7 day average, which is what the dashboard does too. Trying to do it day by day doesn't work, as test number for one day are not directly comparable to specimen date positives for that day.

same data
blue-tests, orange -cases, line-pos. rate

The positivity line shows clearly that positivity rate jumps over the weekend. Looking closely: less test are conducted, but the case numbers aren't moving with them as one would expect. Any idea why?

Trying to do it day by day doesn't work, as test number for one day are not directly comparable to specimen date positives for that day.

Of course, that's why I did the whole month, to get some perspective.

I did come up with a hypothesis for the strange weekend pattern:
only those who really have symptoms will go to tests. It's the weekend after all.... ?

I have a hypothesis for the numbers on the 29th based on people I know who tested positive then. All have kids, all in tier 4. Parents started feeling ill on Christmas Day but as they weren’t allowed to see anyone - and didn’t need to go out - they didn’t test immediately. They thought it was “just a cold” so only tested when it had lasted a few days and they wanted to start going out and about

@MarshaBradyo

A good piece on R4 right now on schools - including Professor Semple on whether there is a rise in cases for children (he says no). Education is important for early years but then again not much else to close to get R down

Won’t paraphrase rest but worth listening to

I thought the data was showing a rise in cases from the surveillance charts, even at primary school level, but definitely for under 15s.

Is he saying there is no rise at all in children overall or in a specific area or no rise in hospital admissions?

I can't think what else could be closed though, without starting putting in county boundaries and closing them, which any local would quickly be able to get a way round most of them.

Witchend ah yes I missed crucial word! He was talking about hospital admissions

@TheSunIsStillShining

same data blue-tests, orange -cases, line-pos. rate

The positivity line shows clearly that positivity rate jumps over the weekend. Looking closely: less test are conducted, but the case numbers aren't moving with them as one would expect. Any idea why?

Well, yes, they would under your maths if what I'm saying is true; you are dividing the number of tests reported for a Saturday/Sunday (which is normally lower than the rest of the week) , for example, with the cases reported that day, which are going to relate to specimen dates from 1-3 days before. That's why positivity rates are normally calculated as a rolling average.