Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Thanks for the link @MRex. According to that 999 calls for covid are down a bit in Essex, Kent and some other really badly affected places (e.g. Barking and Dagenham) which might be a tiny glimmer of hope (or might be me not really understanding that data!)

Any idea why number of tests conducted is still only available at 7 Jan (as it was yesterday I think, and possibly even the day before - 8th)? Does it not get updated over the weekend, I wonder?

The table of cases in councils in England is updated on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage.

Thanks everyone for discussion on Zoe numbers/tests conducted.

In terms of London over-accounting for cases based on population - could the additional testing availability being feeding into this? All the West London councils are now offering LFT (I know there are issues with these tests) which would hopefully pick out some of the asymptomatic positives, I assume most of London boroughs are doing this too.

@MRex I'm CEV and was annoyed about masks at hospital. Went in wearing a 3 layer fabric, nicely fitted with filter. No gaps, nose wire etc. Was told I have to wear one of their masks at the entrance.
Not adjustable, no filter, gaps everywhere as it was huge on me so it gaped all at the sides, steaming up as no nose wire. I felt much less safe wearing that one

It was just the West London councils, but universal LFT has spread to (at least) South London according to my council’s newsletter - but although it is in theory for all, the council bumph says the central testing site is aimed at people working outside the home. The more local and accessible testing in pharmacies is open to key workers, carers and volunteers only.

@Aixenprovence

Any idea why number of tests conducted is still only available at 7 Jan (as it was yesterday I think, and possibly even the day before - 8th)? Does it not get updated over the weekend, I wonder?

Test numbers are always quoted a day behind and don't update on Saturday/Sunday. The data for 8, 9 and 10 January will upload with tomorrows figures.

@QueenPawPaws - that's frustrating. It's the same at our hospital, my nice tight mask with filters swapped for the blue one. Luckily I was only going for a blood test, so quickly out. Hope you're ok.

@boys3

Littleowl’s table should hopefully bear this out, although almost all councils still rising in last 7 vs previous 7 days 11 now falling with 7 of those in Kent/ Essex / Herts; hopefully those numbers should start to increase over the next few days - as in more showing falling rates

Small glimmer of a potential downward trend in Essealthough saying that I remember getting really optimistic a few weeks back when cases dropped to 11/12k so I've probably just jinxed us 😬

We'll need a new thread before too long... thanks again you lot for all the data commentary!

@MRex - I took DD for a blood test the other day. We have a drive through facility where you don't get out the car. You just wind the window down and they jab you threw it. I think that's pretty near to bring Covid-safe. I wonder whether they'll be doing vaccinations that way to at these mass immunisation centres?

Numbers do look to be at least plateauing currently, and maybe taking a downturn - Zoe certainly shows a downturn in the last few days.

Re what proportion of infections are picked up - I tried comparing the figures from the ONS infection survey from June to November with the reported case figures for the same period - it suggested that 25.4% of all infections were picked up by testing during this period, which seems quite low to me. I'll double check I did the calculations right and post the numbers here if I get time later. I need to double check the end cut off dates for both sources.b

@MRex I'm good - have to go back on Tuesday and I'm there for 2-3hrs again. Might swap my mask once I'm out of sight of the entrance!

@Quarantino

We'll need a new thread before too long... thanks again you lot for all the data commentary!

We need an analysis of the time it takes to fill up a thread compared to case numbers

Figures still too high, but I have hope

it suggested that 25.4% of all infections were picked up by testing during this period, which seems quite low to me

It seems high to me, but a key part is if household contacts test, I can't see any reason at all for them to do so, but it seems a lot of people don't go that way and pointlessly test.

I read some other threads rather than research and it sent me up a strange alleyway. Just wondering, is it possible that smoking isn't protective but rather leads to false negative PCR test results?

[quote QueenPawPaws]@MRex I'm good - have to go back on Tuesday and I'm there for 2-3hrs again. Might swap my mask once I'm out of sight of the entrance! [/quote]
Would you be able to wear their mask on top of yours?

In my area, South Devon, the number are rising rapidly but I expected that, we have got away with it quite lightly for most of the pandemic.

@ancientgran oh I could try that actually. I'm allowed to take it off when I'm having my treatment as they bring breakfast round

[quote MRex]@ancientgran
I saw a poster the other day for a slimming world type group, huge letters “100% covid safe” - I’m not normally tempted to graffiti but I very much wanted to comment on it! Short of working in a Cat-4 lab at porton down, few places can be anything like 100% covid safe, let alone a village hall
Unless they go online, that would be safe.
They do say the camera adds 10lbs, it might be a difficult call.[/quote]
Would give them extra incentive. But seriously I did notice our local slimming world had gone online, normally at our local community centre which I walk past when having my daily exercise, the noticeboard now says the classes are running safely online.

[quote QueenPawPaws]@ancientgran oh I could try that actually. I'm allowed to take it off when I'm having my treatment as they bring breakfast round [/quote]
Hope it works and enjoy the breakfast. Not much opportunity to eat out at the moment. I'd love someone to cook me a meal. I've decided after 50 years being a wife/mother/grandmother I've had enough of cooking.

Great idea @ancientgran. @QueenPawPaws - let us know if they allow it.

QueenPawPaws I wore the blue one over my own. It was questioned a few times but I pointed out mine was an N95 so obviously much much safer.

(And good luck with your treatment, I hope it goes well.)

www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/10/one-in-five-have-had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Looks like someone else has done the same modelling as I was having a go at, only a bit more thoroughly, and got very similar results. Headline being that around one in 5 people have had Covid in total.