Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Almost exactly what my back of envelope calculation came up with.

The interactive graphs on that link are fascinating. Thanks for posting the link @Firefliess

@sosotired1 - have you had your N95 fit-tested? If not, it's no better than a surgical mask. There is research to back this up but, I'm sorry, I can't find it with a cursory google and I'm exhausted. I'll try again tomorrow.

It's worth being aware that a lot of the more fitted masks (N95/FFP2 or N99/FFP3) have a valve on them. Unless that valve is also filtered - some are, mine is - the mask filters on inspiration only. So the wearer is protected, but everyone around them isn't. Given the primary purpose of a mask on a patient is to protect other patients and those treating them, our setting at least will not allow patients to wear valved masks. We'd be totally fine with you wearing a surgical mask over one (what we were doing until we got non-valved or filtration-valved FFP3s) but not one on it's own.

Hopefully that gives some context to why the hospital may have been twitchy.

(As an aside, if you're looking for an FFP3 I'd recommend this one as a good one to start with www.3m.co.uk/3M/en_GB/company-uk/3m-products/~/3M-Aura-Disposable-Respirators-9300-Series/?N=5002385+3291240516&rt=rud Much more comfy than many on the market, and fits most people. Plus no expiration valve, so you're protecting others. But it does need fit testing. To illustrate, it felt great on me, very protective, but my fit test showed it was leaking. Sadly, because it's noticably more comfortable than the one which did seal effectively.)

At some point in the future, with distance and time, I hope a decent investigation is done into the deprivation links in this pandemic and how we can better mitigate them for a future one. @littleowl1’s table has Knowsley at 16th, after its meteoric zoom up the table this week. Having been hardest hit in the second wave, I wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up top of the table again in this wave too.

Hi Motorina, I looked at some tutorials on the web and hope I managed it, very tight seal etc. (very clear marks all around when I took it off!) it was the best I could do in the circumstances.

If 49% of the population in Newham ( particular interest to me ) have had the virus ,why is the current growth of cases in the borough so high and still climbing ? Higher than say Southwark .

At what point does "herd immunity " have an effect ?

Apologies if this is a very basic question .

MRex as well as smoking, I've wondered if using mouthwash or brushing teeth too close to taking a test, can also produce false negatives. Especially as there's some research saying that mouthwash and toothpaste can kill Covid/have a protective effect. Had that thought after taking DD for a test first thing in the morning

@Firefliess

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/10/one-in-five-have-had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Looks like someone else has done the same modelling as I was having a go at, only a bit more thoroughly, and got very similar results. Headline being that around one in 5 people have had Covid in total.

I remember initial modelling (Imperial College maybe?) predicting half a million deaths if nothing were done, and it went through the whole population. There was outrage and disbelief. But here we are with a fifth of the population having had it, and over 80k deaths, meaning those early predictions weren't so far off what might have been had no efforts been made to restrict spread. Sobering stuff.

@peridito

If 49% of the population in Newham ( particular interest to me ) have had the virus ,why is the current growth of cases in the borough so high and still climbing ? Higher than say Southwark .

At what point does "herd immunity " have an effect ?

Apologies if this is a very basic question .

I was wondering this when I saw a headline that there was some town (sorry, I forget where) that was estimated to have 1 in 5 people having had the virus. That's 20% so not as high as Newham, but surely, at some point, the chain of transmission would have to start to break?

@peridito - the numbers are very high in Newham, because it's had quite a recent big spike in cases. But the dashboard today shows the 7 day average as now starting to fall - definitely not growing as fast as some lower rate areas, which would suggest an element of herd immunity starting to slow things down a bit. The proportion who've had Covid may also vary between parts of the borough - so less than 50% in some parts/social groups. It's also possible in an area like Newham that the official population figures underestimate the actual population - which would make the proportion who've had Covid an overestimate.

The herd immunity threshold isn’t really a straightforward one number. But also there is the phenomenon of overshoot - with infections running naturally through a population they don’t stop at the herd immunity threshold, they overshoot it. The only way to stop at the HIT is to get there by vaccination. At least that’s my understanding!

The town in the Amazon that was estimated as 66% or so with a lull was still getting cases, someone had posted about it. I feel the asymptomatic percentage may be overestimated in some of these models, especially now when tests are available to anyone wanting them.

Does anyone know, if someone reports on the phone to T&T that a household member isolating now has symptoms, are they sent for a test?

Firefliss thank you ,that's very helpful .I have to keep reminding myself that the steepness of the curve is really important .
My son is a TA working with autistic children in a Newham primary so I'm interested.

And RichardGere overshoot ,oh dear .Another thing that I'd not considered or knew existed !

In terms of pillar 2 only positivity, the proportion of LF tests has increased significantly over the past week. LF posivity for the past seven days around 2.3%, thus contributing to the overall fall in P2 positivity. But masking that PCR test positivity has increased slightly.

That said PCR positivity in London has fallen by around 1.3%, south east fallen just (by 0.2%) but has increased in every other region.

Shall I start a new thread? We are getting very close to the end...

But masking that PCR test positivity has increased slightly

People who previously lied to get a test out of worry/to meet granny/etc. would now switch to the ondemand testing, so it could depend how many "really not likely to have covid" people left the PCR testing group as opposed to more actual positivity.

@peridito - the steepness of the curve and whether rates are going up or coming down is what matters in telling us where things will be in the future, and whether the current lockdown restrictions are sufficient. But the proportion of people with Covid out of those you mix with is what matters in terms of your personal chance of catching it. Rates are very high still in Newham currently, so your chance of catching it is much higher than if you lived in, say, Devon where rates are growing faster but still much lower currently. Does that make sense? If 3% of Newham's population currently has Covid, it's not going to drop to zero overnight if there's still 50% of the population who've not had it yet and are vulnerable.

@NoGoodPunsLeft I would appreciate a new thread, I like to see the next one pop up, to know it is continuing!

Also with herd immunity we don't know how long immunity lasts. If it's less than a year on average, then a town that had a big first wave could have a good number of them having lost enough immunity to start catching it again.

There's so many unknowns still.

New thread

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4132538-Data-Stats-Daily-Numbers-started-11th-Jan

@Perihelion MRex as well as smoking, I've wondered if using mouthwash or brushing teeth too close to taking a test, can also produce false negatives. Especially as there's some research saying that mouthwash and toothpaste can kill Covid/have a protective effect. Had that thought after taking DD for a test first thing in the morning

I know a sample of one doesn't tell us much but my son did his lateral flow test in the morning after shower and teeth, he was due to start a shift, he's a nurse working with covid patients. He got a positive so it didn't cause an issue with his. He had to have a PCR to confirm it, they didn't want him off work for ten days unless they were sure he had it, but that was later in the morning.

Firefliss yes thank you again ,it does make sense .

@sirfredfredgeorge what on demand testing is that ? I dis read a post suggesting it was available in West London (IIRC) but I've seen nothing locally (SE London ). Nor read anything .But I could well have missed something .