Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

OK so it does say the chiropodist visit must only be "where this is required urgently or on the advice of a registered medical practitioner":

www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1045/made

R calculations updated yesterday, national & regional

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

Latest R number range for the UK
1.2-1.5

Latest growth rate range for the UK
+4% to +9% per day

Table for English regions attached

The NW has the highest cases, but atm one of the lowest R & growth rate:
R = 1.2 - 1.4
Daily Growth 4-7%

So other regions will be catching up

I reckon Mandy’s lost her clicky pen!

I wouldn't be surprised if the reason you can get urgent care from a chiropodist (coo - I thought they were all called podiatrists now?) is related to diabetes care.

@Beebityboo me too! I'm a teacher, partner at home but asthmatic with crohn's, child at a different school. Partner's parents in their 70s think that they are a risk to us, rather than us being a risk to them.

Chiropodists are vital for some folk - I was reading about older people having corns and even toenails that limit their ability to move. Clearly urgent.

I'm imagining coffee spilt on the keyboard....

@EducatingArti

They are trying to contact Graham Norton's agent but had to leave a message and he hasn't got back to them yet. They are hoping GN doing the announcement will make people think that having a score that is higher than the rest of Europe will be a good thing!

Are they saving Mr Bean for the following week?

Noticed this on the surveillance report:

325 incidents were from educational settings where 252 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (p18)
That's 77.5% of cases

Am I reading that right?

@NeurotrashWarrior I’m thinking gin rather than coffee...

Do you think they'll put the figures on at 9.59pm and then remove them at 10pm when they try to fix last weeks fix?

I’ve just been sent some inside info....

Actual footage of the PHE data room
Sorry!!!!

Ooh. I'm getting an 'updating now, do not refresh till 8.43' message

@ceeveebee

I’ve just been sent some inside info....

Really??

@pussycatinboots "Does this mean we have to raise a glass to Sir Terry part way through the announcement?"

You should have been doing that for the nightly results anyway. Catch up if necessary.

ceeveebee is that velour upholstery? very nice.😎

Oh hello, game on! (wait 15 minutes and...)

MRex bugger. I must have missed that rule. Unless it's a new one that no one knows about yet?

15,166

15,166 cases.

Oh, hang on, I want to enter the sweepstake!,

Erm...13579

Does anyone wait those 15 minutes, or are you like me and can't resist refreshing?

Actually, there is no need to wait for 15 minutes. The summary page gets updated 5 minutes after the start of the re-fresh.

15,166 is the actual final number.

@wintertravel1980
I know, but I always feel a bit naughty refreshing before the time it says.

@ceeveebee

I’ve just been sent some inside info....

You’ve got to tell us what this is about!

A city in Brazil where covid-19 ran amok

• the tragedy / failure of herd immunity

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/09/22/1008709/brazil-manaus-covid-coronavirus-herd-immunity-pandemic/

The city of Manaus in Brazil did not lockdown or have strict SD rules in the 1st wave
So Covid spread widely

If Manaus were a country, it would have the second-highest mortality rate in the world, at 1007 deaths / million population.

That's despite a young population, with only 6% of residents aged 60+

• Brazil's mean age of 33 illustrates very different age demographics to Western industrialised countries

Their hospitals and graveyards were overwhelmed.
"Manaus was the scene of gruesome images of overrun hospitals, mass graves and corpses piled in refrigerator trucks when the pandemic was at its peak there in May."

A serology study later found up to 66% of the population have antibodies.

There was hope when their 1st wave ended that Manaus had achieved herd immunity,
but now they have a 2nd wave - and this time are closing down bars etc

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-brazil-manaus/in-brazils-amazon-a-covid-19-resurgence-dashes-herd-immunity-hopes-idUKKBN26I0I8

https://www.france24.com/en/20200924-brazilian-amazon-city-of-manaus-may-have-reached-covid-19-herd-immunity-study-says