Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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@ancientgran

A Panorama expose on schools sounds like a good idea.

Definitely.

[quote herecomesthsun]@BigChocFrenzy

So what is the agenda of Indie SAGE?

As i find them very willing to consider the evidence impartially?

I can see that being a CMO or part of a government body like SAGE could inhibit one's ability to speak one's mind, or at least lead one to put things very very diplomatically or in a watered down way (it's very disappointing that this is so). I respect Prof Whitty and Prof Ven-Tam enormously, but there have been times when we have wondered whether they are being put under pressure to say or not to say certain things.

Whereas having an independent body means that scientists can be unconstrained in their examination of the evidence.

Also, presumably there is a political element to how people are appointed to these bodies. A very right wing Conservative Government with a Prime Minister who does not like dissent may choose a certain sort of person for their advisory body.

I'm very relieved that alternative opinions, with very good scientific backing, are out there. And having an alternative body of experts with a somewhat collegiate style, that still does weekly briefings, is a great bonus. It signposts a decent, topical scientific discussion for people like me.

(I personally rather like the informal quality of the name )[/quote]
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https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4048250-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-24?

@Nellodee

School seating plans are very often a negative image of school friendship groups - we tend not to like to have kids sitting with people they will chat to. When one of our students goes off with Covid, you can pretty much see the imprint on the class. There will be a circular gap with 2m diameter centred on the positive case, and then dotty holes around the classroom. Some of those dotty holes will be missing friends, and some will be from a seating plan circle in a different room, where students have had to move for their optional subjects. It would be reasonably easy for my school to determine which route the virus took with fairly good accuracy, if they were actually asked to do so.

For my ds (year 9, doing options) they have very unusually allowed them to choose seats in lessons. Most teachers normally do a seating plan. I did wonder why at first, but then realised it made sense as they will choose to sit with friends, which makes it more consistent across classes, plus they tend to be the children they socialise with at break too.

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https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4048250-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-24?

"they have very unusually allowed them to choose seats in lessons."

That makes sense if it becomes the new seating plan
It may increase chattiness in class, but also could reduce the number of contacts

Most schools have no extra space
and there are far too few external places for hire to make a real difference
I don't believe this is universally true, and I haven't seen any evidence to support it. This is not true for my daughter's schools. Also - it begs the question why it's possible in Italy but not here?

DD1s opened full time for all years in June/July - all they needed were extra TAs. They have a number of older and experienced staff (therefore also higher risk, one has recently decided to resign) who were able to effectively provide material for the experienced TAs to deliver, both teacher and experienced TAs supported by newly recruited inexperienced TA (though they were all fantastic and DD1 got so much better education than normal). No-one got sick over 4 weeks (and strict social distancing in school had knock on effects I observed for children's behaviour out of school).

They just need a relatively moderate influx of cash. Both schools also have had community space offered for free to which DfE have said flat no (presumably as they'd have to fund more TAs?).

This keeps being trotted out that it's impossible but I see no real evidence for this. I'm a bit fed up of the UK having such a defeatist attitude. Italy isn't rolling in cash either and they've found more for extra staff and using community spaces. It's all about priorities - Uk is handing over vast cash sums for useless private contracts, Italy obviously values children more.

Whilst the government is grasping and selfish, many communities still pull together and would try to find solutions given half a chance (e.g. the community space offered for free) - they're not being allowed to by the DfE.

@IloveJKRowling

Most schools have no extra space and there are far too few external places for hire to make a real difference I don't believe this is universally true, and I haven't seen any evidence to support it. This is not true for my daughter's schools. Also - it begs the question why it's possible in Italy but not here?

DD1s opened full time for all years in June/July - all they needed were extra TAs. They have a number of older and experienced staff (therefore also higher risk, one has recently decided to resign) who were able to effectively provide material for the experienced TAs to deliver, both teacher and experienced TAs supported by newly recruited inexperienced TA (though they were all fantastic and DD1 got so much better education than normal). No-one got sick over 4 weeks (and strict social distancing in school had knock on effects I observed for children's behaviour out of school).

They just need a relatively moderate influx of cash. Both schools also have had community space offered for free to which DfE have said flat no (presumably as they'd have to fund more TAs?).

This keeps being trotted out that it's impossible but I see no real evidence for this. I'm a bit fed up of the UK having such a defeatist attitude. Italy isn't rolling in cash either and they've found more for extra staff and using community spaces. It's all about priorities - Uk is handing over vast cash sums for useless private contracts, Italy obviously values children more.

Whilst the government is grasping and selfish, many communities still pull together and would try to find solutions given half a chance (e.g. the community space offered for free) - they're not being allowed to by the DfE.

... iirc, The money found in Italy for extra staff worked out as 1 extra teacher per school

which is handy to have, but hardly a gamechanger

Check how many rooms are for hire in your area, then divide by the number of schools
If this number is > 1 , then lobby your head teachers, local education authority, DfE

Of course there is plenty the government genuinely could do, with money and by changing rules
but no sign they plan to do so
No sign they plan to resign either

The UK elected a Tory government
That is the government you have to deal with

So how do you force them to spend money on schools ?

Ilove as you know I completely agree. Imagine if the money for EOTHO had been put into education. I think history will treat the scheme as a great folly. Not only has it been abused but it has had a role in driving infections and if establishments are closed as predicted they will still go to the wall. Thus it will only have had a negative effect. Our children could be benefiting from that money now and because of the investment prevent the spread.

However, what likelihood do you see that this govt will spend more on schools ?

I don’t blame government for focusing on economic stimulus. We’re in dire straights.

I’m glad it’s Sunak in the corner going for this. He has a strong voice and is generally sound.

Except bounce back loan fraud really gets me

Check how many rooms are for hire in your area, then divide by the number of schools. If this number is > 1 , then lobby your head teachers, local education authority, DfE

I am doing so. My head teachers are in complete agreement with me and encouraging me to make as much noise as possible to my MP and everywhere I can. They want to make schools safer and believe they could do so with a little extra cash.

Agree about the government not wanting to fund schools - but that's not the same as there not being space in all cases and it being something impossible.

It then becomes a choice the government is making. And I think it is important this truth is known and we do not let them obfuscate.

I never understood the logic of EOTHO. I always thought 'take out to help out' might have actually achieved even greater spending (I would have been tempted by that one) without the risks / increased transmission.

EOTHO seemed utter irresponsibility to me

and I agree the money should have been used for schools instead

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https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4048250-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-24?

@BigChocFrenzy

"they have very unusually allowed them to choose seats in lessons."

That makes sense if it becomes the new seating plan
It may increase chattiness in class, but also could reduce the number of contacts

It is their seating plan and they've been told that the seating plan (again unusually) won't change this term at least. They normally change them half termly.

BigChocFrenzy

EOTHO seemed utter irresponsibility to me

and I agree the money should have been used for schools instead

Yet there wasn’t a spike when pubs and restaurants opened it was when schools went back infections started to rise

I thought EOTHO was a waste of money, maybe it was useful elsewhere but living in a buckets and spades seaside town our cafes/restaurants/pubs/bars were all packed in August anyway so it was just throwing money away. Now they are quiet, not many holiday makers about and staff getting laid off, our favourite waitress at our local restaurant has disappeared, if they wanted to help it wasn't well targeted. Due to DHs health we aren't going out much, having shopping delivered, but we are eating out a couple of times a week now to show support to local restaurant and to be honest they are so quiet it doesn't feel dangerous.

I think Sunak is overrated, the EOTHO, the loan frauds, the job retention scheme which was abused (I know local companies where they were claiming the money but staff working from home) I feel sorry for my GC who will be among those paying for the money he has splashed around but people act as if he is taking it out of his own back pocket.

So how do you force them to spend money on schools? We can't, we can try to influence them but we can't force them but what we can do is punish them in 2024, I hope people have long memories.

I think Sunak is overrated, the EOTHO, the loan frauds, the job retention scheme which was abused (I know local companies where they were claiming the money but staff working from home) I feel sorry for my GC who will be among those paying for the money he has splashed around but people act as if he is taking it out of his own back pocket

The EOTHO was a big boost to restaurants in our area. It helped individual businesses to keep their doors open and give people jobs.

The fact that people are fraudulently using the money I only hope they will be found out and made to pay the money back. But for those using the scheme properly it threw a lifeline to those who would have gone under.

There were still a lot of people who fell between the cracks. His schemes didn’t cover those workers who work in agency type work or those that had only gone SE over 3 years ago.