Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Oh it was just a joke, my next post had a photo of their computer blowing up! Sorry, was bored and killing time!!

UK today (yesterday in brackets)

Cases 15,166 (13,864)
Deaths 81 (87)

I can't remember if Saturday affects numbers either way

I knew if I posted another article, that would bring in the UK figures !

@pussycatinboots bwahhhhhhhaaaaa! Love it!!!! where did you find that emoji!!!!

Looking at individual regions and local authorities, it is quite plausible that some of the Northern cities might have passed the peak (e.g. Manchester). I can see why some mayors are pushing back on blanket restrictions.

Some others (e.g. Liverpool), however, are still a worry.

Here we are. Moment of truth. Data is in.

@ceeveebee
I thought it was that!

Ps. the government also found a mint tic-tac, a squashed marshmallow, an odd sock (black with a red stripe) and an old £1 note down the back of the sofa with the missing data. True fact.

and Whitty's willy-warmer

Richard@RP131 updated his specimen date chart, still matching well to 9 days doubling

Remember to ignore the "lag period":
the spurious drop caused by incomplete figures available for the last few days

Manchester had a massive spike just over a week ago when all the student halls of residence did a mass testing exercise. They went from 200 cases a day to 600 and now seem to be coming back down again - fingers crossed it continues..

@wintertravel1980

Looking at individual regions and local authorities, it is quite plausible that some of the Northern cities might have passed the peak (e.g. Manchester). I can see why some mayors are pushing back on blanket restrictions.

Some others (e.g. Liverpool), however, are still a worry.

I hope you’re right. Certainly seems to be the case in Manchester itself (student-led) but not so sure about greater Manchester.

I think the push back on restrictions is more to do with trying to save jobs more than anything.
Fairly sure if they get a decent package from the chancellor to compensate they will agree to them. In GM though there is a lot of eye rolling because the restrictions that have been in place since 30th July might not have helped at all.

@BigChocFrenzy
I have to say I have only been following Richard since yesterday but he does come up with the most lovely charts

@BigChocFrenzy

UK today (yesterday in brackets)

Cases 15,166 (13,864)
Deaths 81 (87)

I can't remember if Saturday affects numbers either way

I knew if I posted another article, that would bring in the UK figures !

According to Worldometers, last Saturday was 7070, 49.

325 incidents were from educational settings where 252 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (p18)
That's 77.5% of cases

Good spot @Witchend

I'm increasingly annoyed at how hard it is to find info on schools.

In the article up thread the director of public health in Newcastle claims that cases are reducing; students have inflated the cases.

Worldometer aren't totally reliable
and I'm not sure if they retrospectively updated the previous 10 days with the "found" positives

We could however go to the UK dashboard cases chart and see if Saturday usually spikes / falls / is boringly average

You can't really go by last Saturday, but looking back over the weeks, I'd say Saturday is normally minorly down, compared to the week average, but nothing to get excited about.

Wow thats shocking about schools. Why do they keep claiming schools are safe...

Worldometers said on 4 Octoner that they had “distributed over the historical time series the backlogged cases, based on the information provided”.

*October

Ok so done some very unscientific figuring out of how quickly cases are doubling in regionsusing the stats up to about 4 days ago to ignore the lag.

London - every 5/6 days
NW - every 13/14 days (not so bad I thought)
NE - impossible to tell because average of 1k per day for the last week or so. Before that extremely quickly
WM - every 18 days
EM - every 5 days
SW - every 7 days
SE - every 7 days
east of England- again like NE quite flat

StuartMcDonald @ActuaryByDay

Some people have asked why more attention isn't given to the high numbers of people dying at home.

It's certainly true numbers are higher, as the PHE graph below shows.
Is this due to lockdown, with people unable to access hospital services?

Let's put the figures in context. 1/7
....
Let's look at hospitals next.
We're interested in the summer period, post COVID peak deaths.
And yes, they are well down, indeed by more than home deaths are up.

All acute services were still open though. 2/7

It's probably not a surprise that Care Home deaths are down.

Who wouldn't try to give end of life care at home given visiting restrictions etc, if at all humanly possible?

I suspect the majority of this undercount has moved to the home figures. 3/7

Hospices show a similar trend to care homes, presumably for the same reason.

Oh missed one Yorkshire 8 days ish

If there were only 325 school situations identified that is so tiny compared to the number of schools it either means schools are ludicrously un-corona, or more likely they only had significant cases reported to them, in which case 77.5% seems low. Either way I don't think it really says very much either way.

@littleowl1 I'm on a laptop, so right click and pick an emoji.

Thanks Frazzled