Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

"but there's by no means a universal consensus that schools should be open at all costs"

Indeed, but I said "most experts" and never "at all costs" or "universal consensus"

and "consensus" = general agreement

IndieSage do have an agenda
and their choice of name continues to irritate me
Just as if Heneghan, Gupta and co had called themselves IndieSAGE

@MRex

This is really basic, but I don't understand how the Bristol schools study can remove the researcher impact from their findings, nor how they separate in- school from community infections. Does anyone have a link with more details? The issues I see are: 1) If they find a person with covid, then they must tell that person, who must isolate. Then the study looks into who else might be infected and again an infected person is informed etc. So the study can't find chain infections of A infects B who automatically infects C. 2) Equally, I don't see any detailed movement study attached nor more importantly genome sequencing, so it still wouldn't pick up finer details e.g. if children infect each other outside school, or a teacher is infected by a parent not child, or a parent infects someone else's child outside school, or infected using the same shop/ church/ cafe etc etc.

... That is the observer paradox

The study was probably the best they could get approved,
but it is not what we really need, just probably the best we'll get

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

Holdingtight - little owl has a fab website covidmessenger with all the rates on, you can sign up to her daily emails too to get notifications on your local area.

Thank you, I have been signed up to littleowl's Covid messenger for a while :) I was asking (probably badly) where we can find the figures that the Govt will be using to allocate tiers.

@HoldingTight
I don't think anyone knows .From what I can gather from twitter it will be on a case by case basis not necessarily above so many cases
They are likely to put Liverpool City Region in tier 3
Newcastle region will NOT
Greater Manchester still negotiating.
Not sure about anywhere else but I suspect a large chunk of the country will be tier 2.
(this is all from twitter)

WHO recommendations for schools opening www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-schools-and-covid-19

TL:DR - the UK is doing hardly any of this. They stress keeping 1m apart at all times, particularly where community transmission happening - not happening at all in UK schools:

"There are several actions and requirements that should be reviewed and put in place to prevent the introduction and spread of COVID-19 in schools and into the community; and to ensure the safety of children and school staff while at school. Special provisions should be considered for early childhood development, higher learning institutions, residential schools or specialized institutions.

WHO recommends the following:

Community-level measures: Carry out early detection, testing, contact tracing and quarantine of contacts; investigate clusters; ensure physical distancing, hand and hygiene practices and age-appropriate mask use; shield vulnerable groups. Community-led initiatives such as addressing misleading rumors also play an important role in reducing the risk of infection.

Policy, practice and infrastructure: Ensure the necessary resources, policies and infrastructure, are in place that protect the health and safety of all school personnel, including people at higher risk.

Behavioral aspects: Consider the age and capacity of students to understand and respect measures put in place. Younger children may find it more difficult to adhere to physical distancing or the appropriate use of masks.

Safety and security: School closure or re-opening may affect the safety and security of students and the most vulnerable children may require special attention, such as during pick-up and drop-off.

Hygiene and daily practices at the school and classroom level: Physical distancing of at least 1 metre between individuals including spacing of desks, frequent hand and respiratory hygiene, age-appropriate mask use, ventilation and environmental cleaning measures should be in place to limit exposure. Schools should educate staff and students on COVID-19 prevention measures, develop a schedule for daily cleaning and disinfection of the school environment, facilities and frequently touches surfaces, and ensure availability of hand hygiene facilities and national/local guidance on the use of masks.

Screening and care of sick students, teachers and other school staff: Schools should enforce the policy of “staying home if unwell”, waive the requirement for a doctor’s note, create a checklist for parents/students/staff to decide whether to go to school (taking into consideration the local situation), ensure students who have been in contact with a COVID-19 case stay home for 14 days, and consider options for screening on arrival.

Protection of individuals at high-risk: Schools should identify students and teachers at high-risk with pre-existing medical conditions to come up with strategies to keep them safe; maintain physical distancing and se of medical masks as well as frequent hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette.

Communication with parents and students: Schools should keep students and parents informed about the measures being implemented to ensure their collaboration and support.

Additional school-related measures such as immunization checks and catch-up vaccination programmes: Ensure continuity or expansion of essential services, including school feeding and mental health and psycho-social support.

Physical distancing outside classrooms: Maintain a distance of at least 1 metre for both students (all age groups) and staff, where feasible.

Physical distancing inside classrooms:

In areas with community transmission of COVID-19, maintain a distance of at least 1 metre between all individuals of all age groups, for any schools remaining open. This includes increasing desk spacing and staging recesses, breaks and lunchbreaks; limiting the mixing of classes and of age groups; considering smaller classes or alternating attendance schedules, and ensuring good ventilation in classrooms.

In areas with cluster-transmission of COVID-19, a risk-based approach should be taken when deciding whether to keep a distance of at least 1 metre between students. Staff should always keep at least 1 metre apart from each other and from students and should wear a mask in situations where 1-metre distance is not practical."

Thanks for the Bristol input all. It's good that I haven't misunderstood, though I was hoping someone would tell me they decided to genome sequence after all.

@HoldingTight
Probably showing my ignorance here but where can I find the level of cases (per 100k in the last 7 days I assume??) that will be used to establish which areas will be in which tier?
We won't know until tomorrow. I've seen one paper guess intervals of 50 and one intervals of 100. So it'll be 75. Joking, nobody knows for sure.

@MRex there is a way that epidemiologists trace back clusters with some certainty without sequencing. It’s all to do with timing of onset of symptoms in each person etc. I’m sure it’s not 100% accurate but it seems to be established principles. I’m sure also it’s logical say in school screening if one kid and all those sitting near him or his friendship group all come down with it then odds are they’ve passed it around at school not all been individually infected at home at the same time.

@HoldingTight
Sorry I misunderstood your question
They pop up on various threads on twitter, but the problem is they change on an almost daily basis so no consistent way to find them, as far as I am aware anyway.

Yes, we know Oaktree, we know....

Thanks for your info on Southampton.

@Oaktree55 - "if one kid and all those sitting near him or his friendship group all come down with it then odds are they’ve passed it around at school"
Well no, you mean they've all most likely caught it from the same person, and most likely at school. But nobody in that group infected any other in that group if they all got symptoms at once. I get the point, it just gets a bit ropy with the older teens hanging out outside school as well.

@BigChocFrenzy

So what is the agenda of Indie SAGE?

As i find them very willing to consider the evidence impartially?

I can see that being a CMO or part of a government body like SAGE could inhibit one's ability to speak one's mind, or at least lead one to put things very very diplomatically or in a watered down way (it's very disappointing that this is so). I respect Prof Whitty and Prof Ven-Tam enormously, but there have been times when we have wondered whether they are being put under pressure to say or not to say certain things.

Whereas having an independent body means that scientists can be unconstrained in their examination of the evidence.

Also, presumably there is a political element to how people are appointed to these bodies. A very right wing Conservative Government with a Prime Minister who does not like dissent may choose a certain sort of person for their advisory body.

I'm very relieved that alternative opinions, with very good scientific backing, are out there. And having an alternative body of experts with a somewhat collegiate style, that still does weekly briefings, is a great bonus. It signposts a decent, topical scientific discussion for people like me.

(I personally rather like the informal quality of the name )

I get the point, it just gets a bit ropy with the older teens hanging out outside school as well.

This is easier with little kids as they can't hang out on their own, only if the parents arrange it. It says they are testing in 24 schools - I'm assuming primary and secondary (are there even 24 secondary schools in Bristol?)

School seating plans are very often a negative image of school friendship groups - we tend not to like to have kids sitting with people they will chat to. When one of our students goes off with Covid, you can pretty much see the imprint on the class. There will be a circular gap with 2m diameter centred on the positive case, and then dotty holes around the classroom. Some of those dotty holes will be missing friends, and some will be from a seating plan circle in a different room, where students have had to move for their optional subjects. It would be reasonably easy for my school to determine which route the virus took with fairly good accuracy, if they were actually asked to do so.

@HoldingTight rates per 100,000 for every borough on littleowls wonderful website and as up to date as can be (as the last few days not yet complete)

www.covidmessenger.com/coronavirusliveupdate/#coronavirusliveupdate

We don’t know yet which rate will belong in which tier. Speculation that tier 2 may be over 100, but not confirmed.

At least, it would be easy to see the ones who were definitely school transmission. Less easy to see the ones that could have been afterschool transmission, as they could have been infected in either place, since children who mix out of school tend to mix in school as well.

Also, far from recommending that schools stay open at all costs, the WHO discusses that where, in the community, there is cluster transmission, then schools may consider closure.

The WHO suggests that where there is community transmission (which we most certainly have, then
" Depending on the trends and intensity of the transmission, local authorities may consider ....school closure, particularly in areas with increasing trends of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations for
COVID-19 and COVID-19 deaths; any schools remaining open should adhere strictly to COVID-19 guidelines"
,
We most certainly are not adhering in schools to COVID-19 guidelines, so we are organising education strictly counter to WHO guidelines.

I would just like us to be following best practice (which is WHO not Prof Viner) and to be organising things properly, scientifically and with an eye to the welfare of everyone associated in schools.

Some more safety measures in schools would be a good start for example.

Apologies for more stuff about education, but I really am appalled by Viner's stance and I don't think that can stand unchallenged.

JK I think most of us would agree that government incompetence and cronyism has resulted in inadequate testing, track & trace systems

There are also serious structural problems caused by at least 10 years of lack of investment in schools and healthcare

However, we have to cope with the current situation:

The government won't suddenly become competent

Most schools have no extra space
and there are far too few external places for hire to make a real difference

The government is unlikely to provide more money,
but we should keep asking - perspex dividers, laptops, training, cleaning, supplies, supply staff etc

We should keep demanding that ECV students & staff, or those with ECV household members, be allowed to stay home without penalty

The options that might be feasible to make schools safer are not - going by polls, or even MN - currently supported by sufficient parents:

. masks in class
. pt schools
. SD for all the hours outside school

Parental views may yet change
if deaths increase to hundreds daily and / or staff absences close a significant % of schools

[quote Oaktree55]@Piggywaspushed Debbie is checking and getting back to me I’ll update here.

I’ll get shot down by the mums for this but Teaching Staff are you starting to realise you’re central to the whole running of the U.K. economy 😂. They’re not touching schools yet as it’s politically too difficult for them.

Hope your pay rises reflect the fact that you’re clearly central to the running of Society..........

.........cue “there’s no spread occurring in schools” comments![/quote]

I realised this a while ago; and noted we are still bashed and slandered.

We are social services, childcare, mental health stability for parents and kids (mostly), as well as maybe teachers.

I think there would be an interesting analysis to do on the content of Mumsnet posts on school closures, holiday cancellations and just getting on with it.

There have definitely been waves of these, and then waves of "this is getting pretty serious now and I think someone should actually do something."

I've noticed a reduction in the "teachers should just get on with it" and a swing to "are we really expecting them to go in there with no protection at all?" in just the last couple of days.

I'm sure some kind of text based analysis would back me up on this. I'd be interested to see if the swing of opinion was reactive, or proactive - are the government actually basing their decisions on public opinion, or is public opinion formed as a result of government actions?

Of course, Mumsnet is not necessarily representative, but I did notice a swing back in March from "Don't be so silly" to "This is really happening" and it seems to be occurring again now, following a couple of weeks of "herd immunity" being the dominant theme.

@MRex I’m not an epidemiologist I’m just recalling in vague terms what I’ve read about relating to chains of transmission. There are several accounts on Twitter which set out how it’s done. I don’t think there would be research studies being funded if the results were thought to be totally pointless.

I'm sort of thinking of using Mumsnet as like a text version of sewer analysis, but for public opinion rather than the virus itself...

@Nellodee

I think there would be an interesting analysis to do on the content of Mumsnet posts on school closures, holiday cancellations and just getting on with it.

There have definitely been waves of these, and then waves of "this is getting pretty serious now and I think someone should actually do something."

I've noticed a reduction in the "teachers should just get on with it" and a swing to "are we really expecting them to go in there with no protection at all?" in just the last couple of days.

I'm sure some kind of text based analysis would back me up on this. I'd be interested to see if the swing of opinion was reactive, or proactive - are the government actually basing their decisions on public opinion, or is public opinion formed as a result of government actions?

Of course, Mumsnet is not necessarily representative, but I did notice a swing back in March from "Don't be so silly" to "This is really happening" and it seems to be occurring again now, following a couple of weeks of "herd immunity" being the dominant theme.

Mn swings based on the loudest voices which can cause others to limit posting. I feel very differently now to March but I can see teachers getting more concerned and posting more.

@Nellodee

School seating plans are very often a negative image of school friendship groups - we tend not to like to have kids sitting with people they will chat to. When one of our students goes off with Covid, you can pretty much see the imprint on the class. There will be a circular gap with 2m diameter centred on the positive case, and then dotty holes around the classroom. Some of those dotty holes will be missing friends, and some will be from a seating plan circle in a different room, where students have had to move for their optional subjects. It would be reasonably easy for my school to determine which route the virus took with fairly good accuracy, if they were actually asked to do so.

That’s really interesting. A nice little project for A level Maths/ICT/Computing students? Is it possible to go off-piste with that sort of thing anymore? (Retired 7 years now.)

Nellodee, I love, here comes etc, op.. Just checking in to say thanks for these threads, so interesting as ever. Chewing over data I can't.

Re schools this site is mumsnet so I think it's par for the course that most of us are parents and indeed many teachers.

How would there be a poll re schools?

I feel there has been a let go of the reigns... Why no public information videos?. Our students are covid bored, they are supposed to wear masks before they leave the classroom, they don't... They have no idea of mask etticute.
One student is very earnest, puts mask on before leaving classroom, always gelling. BUT she touches her mask on the outside... It's reusable but she's using the same paper one every day... I gently tried to say we are not supposed to touch the outside of the mask... She just shrugged and and carried on.

There is no collective, dramatic, Catchy information to play.
It should be like brain washing.
Drumming it in.
It's too much for one or two interested members of staff to impress.
Where we are it would take a staff member to become ill to wake everyone up. Everyone is pretty complacent.

I wish WHO had more presence again, their news speeches have become totally lost..
We need a panorama or something to look at Canada, WHo and do an expose in school.

A Panorama expose on schools sounds like a good idea.