Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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I’m suspicious that there isn’t even a “sorry it’s late today” message. I can believe however that whichever team it is that does this has less bods on the case at weekends, which could make it harder to fix an easy issue

Thanks BigChoc

I notice in that NHS file for deaths with pre-existing condition the 'other' category is fairly hefty, do we know what 'other' covers?

I suppose they were perhaps trying initially to collect data on / figure out what conditions lead to more severe disease (and it's not necessarily what you'd expect - asthma not being so important compared to diabetes) but the reporting around it has been awful. Very much with the underlying message that anyone with an underlying condition doesn't matter.

Message now -awaiting case data for England

@Frazzled2207

I’m suspicious that there isn’t even a “sorry it’s late today” message. I can believe however that whichever team it is that does this has less bods on the case at weekends, which could make it harder to fix an easy issue

They've just put a sorry message up, case data is still awaited so holding up the update.

Does anyone else imagine that message is for us

Also a message saying the website may become unstable from 10pm until tomorrow morning, so let's hope we get the numbers before then.

Wonder if they’re making it unstable in time for Boris’ announcement on Monday?

New message "We are awaiting data for cases in England. We will update the data as soon as possible." And it's going down overnight for fixing again 10pm-6am. Might just be the upgrade causing an issue, but it looks like data checking to me. Good or bad news.

Hospitalisations Data is there and not bad, ventilated patients is down by one which is good and increase in people in hospital less than it has been

@TheSunIsStillShining
"More than 250 prisoners are self-isolating"

Lots of chuckling at this here too.

Dashboard says:

"We are awaiting data for cases in England. We will update the data as soon as possible."

< it's down PHE's sofa again; first they have to extract last month's cheese sandwich and then the mouse that choked on it >

and
"Due to essential updates, the website and the API may be unstable or unresponsive between 10pm Saturday (10 Oct) and 6am Sunday (11 Oct)."

< returns to 🍫 >

PHE are too busy with Mongolian khoomii singing

Theres been another cock up and they are too embarrassed to admit it.... is my guess

@BigChocFrenzy

iirc, there was uproar among orgs for the disabled back in March about suggestions some patients with severe autism or LDs would not be put on ventilators, or receive certain treatments that would be too distressing

There was then a sharp reversal / denial from the NHS that they would be denied any treatment

So would explain monitoring of patients with autism, LDs, past MH - in case they needed to prove treatment was to a high standard

My son has severe autism. At the start of lockdown there were many people with autism of LD who were put on do not resuscitate purely because of their diagnosis and many without their family or carers informed. A quick google will should show this as it was reported.

They then released a triage method and anyone who had this dx over scored/ were automatically excluded for treatment/ beds if the nhs was over run and rationing was brought in. They quickly changed this following pressure.

We were given a communication passport for our son to fill out if he required hospital treatment, we had to write that we do not consent to a dnr.

Just to add I've followed these threads since the start and I'm grateful for the sense that is brought give all this madness.

They managed to keep the last cock up not dramatised in the papers.
I suspect if there was another they'd just release it with an "artificially high" statement.
More likely the changes they did last night are causing problems.

Anyone else imagining someone blowing the dust of an abacus? Or trying to find some batteries for their Texas Instruments calculator (the beige one with the blue buttons)

@littleowl1 just for you 😂😂

I am hoping it's just that the staff who ended up working round the clock last weekend have got the weekend off as TOIL, so they are short staffed and running late.

(Imperial preprint) High and increasing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity in England during end September beginning October 2020: REACT-1 round 5 updated report

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/REACT1Round55_Paper.pdf

175,000 volunteers tested across England between 18th September and 5th October.

Findings show a national prevalence of 0.60% (95% confidence interval 0.55%, 0.71%)

and doubling of the virus every 29 (17, 84) days in England
corresponding to an estimated national R of 1.16 (1.05, 1.27).

These results correspond to 1 in 170 people currently swab-positive for the virus
and approximately 45,000 new infections each day.

At regional level, the highest prevalence is in the North West, Yorkshire and The Humber and the North East
with strongest regional growth in North West, Yorkshire and The Humber and West Midlands.

They are trying to contact Graham Norton's agent but had to leave a message and he hasn't got back to them yet.
They are hoping GN doing the announcement will make people think that having a score that is higher than the rest of Europe will be a good thing!

Yes my DS has severe SN and I followed closely the bungling of the allocation criteria for ICU. It was to exclude certain people with disabilities in triage from ICU care based on a frailty scale - that scale should only be used for older people in certain circumstances. Similar criteria that disciminated against people with disabilities were popping up in Europe and USA too. It was fought against and changed.

It is quite frightening how quick decision making can mean people with disabilities are discriminated against and may have had vital treatment denied with no sound medical basis.

I also think that they rightly must be following care homes for all people, not just older, and these are homes for those with disabilities.

While we're waiting... have just been reading the legislation on when it's permissible to break self isolation (to help a poster on MN).

Did you know it's permissible to do so for to attend a funeral for a close relative; to go to the vet's; to go to a chiropodist?

I'm somewhat surprised.

Doubling on tests and hospitalisations is currently 2 weeks though,
as shown in Richard@RP131 graphs upthread

However, people being tested are more likely to be infected than the general public as a whole

@EducatingArti

They are trying to contact Graham Norton's agent but had to leave a message and he hasn't got back to them yet. They are hoping GN doing the announcement will make people think that having a score that is higher than the rest of Europe will be a good thing!

Does this mean we have to raise a glass to Sir Terry part way through the announcement?

@Augustbreeze

While we're waiting... have just been reading the legislation on when it's permissible to break self isolation (to help a poster on MN).

Did you know it's permissible to do so for to attend a funeral for a close relative; to go to the vet's; to go to a chiropodist?

I'm somewhat surprised.

.... of all those, I'd only understand the vet - and then only for an emergency, not just shots etc

The chiropodist certainly surprises me!

There is a certain swathe of parents who think it's OK to go to the playpark...