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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

982 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 24/06/2020 16:05

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

OP posts:
Thread gallery
90
TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 02/07/2020 21:13

Agree with all that, Firefliess.

starrynight19 · 02/07/2020 21:13

Just checking in wondering where figures are for today to.

Spied · 02/07/2020 21:13

I doubt they'll want us to know the numbers have gone up when the restrictions are being lifted in 2 days time.
They'll be wondering how to spin it so it doesn't seem too badSad

PatriciaHolm · 02/07/2020 21:21

Given none of the stats out yesterday/today suggest anything untoward (COVID-Zoe app showing 39% decline, Cambridge Uni NowCasting study showing 20% decline, PHE incidence report England showing 29% decline, England hospital admissions 7 rolling average down 27% in a week, ONS surveillance report showing that 1/2,200 people as a whole likely to have it in England down from 1/1700 last week) I would agree with @Firefliess, its probably a stern lecture from Headmaster about behaving alongside some new powers for local govt.

PumpkinPie2016 · 02/07/2020 21:22

It does seem odd that there are no data at all for today.

That said, when I looked yesterday, 8 out of the last 10 days had seen cases below 1000 so.it would be a bit odd to have a sudden massive spike.

Maybe it is just trying to sort data/technical hitch.

There was a statistician on BBC earlier talking about the ONS survey and saying that Leicester was an issue but nowhere else was anything like as bad. Pretty sure he also said cases were starting to come down in Leicester again but might be wrong there.

MarshaBradyo · 02/07/2020 21:22

I don’t think numbers jump that much in any day.

He might say be careful, off you go.

PumpkinPie2016 · 02/07/2020 21:24

Apparently the press conference tomorrow may be around him warning people not to overdo it on Saturday.

Proudpeacock · 02/07/2020 21:26

Figures out now on DHSC Twitter.

Sunshinegirl82 · 02/07/2020 21:28

576 new cases and 89 deaths

Puzzledandpissedoff · 02/07/2020 21:29

Should we be concerned? Are they hiding something?

More likely they've found another "source" of tests to tack onto the figure - some sent abroad and recently returned perhaps?

Bearing in mind the behavioural scientists' infamous remark about people not feeling sufficiently threatened, I've said before that I'd half-expect something like this in advance of this weekend's relaxations, just to keep people in line

"A substantial number of people still do not feel sufficiently personally threatened ...The perceived level of personal threat needs to be increased among those who are complacent, using hard‐hitting emotional messaging based on accurate information about risk"

Source: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjhp.12428

Firefliess · 02/07/2020 21:29

Those are really good figures @sunshine. Definitely seems to be heading in the right direction :)

tobee · 02/07/2020 21:30

New cases number very encouraging! Smile

boys3 · 02/07/2020 21:32

30,000 cases downward correction in the cumulative confirmed cases total. Am I reading this right?

boys3 · 02/07/2020 21:34

313,483 on the dashboard yesterday, 283,757 on the twitter feed

Firefliess · 02/07/2020 21:36

It's that because they've finally managed to distinguish cases (ie people) from tests maybe @boys?

FurForksSake · 02/07/2020 21:37

They're good...

Puzzledandpissedoff · 02/07/2020 21:37

Well, if that's correct it's one of those times I'm very glad to be wrong ...

Surprised, I admit, as I really did think they'd pull out something to dissuade folk taking silly risks, but as long as it's good news who cares?

Sunshinegirl82 · 02/07/2020 21:41

Screenshot of the figures

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11
AlecTrevelyan006 · 02/07/2020 21:41

new positive cases and deaths

Thursday 2 July - 576 / 89
Thursday 25 June - 1,118 / 149
Thursday 18 June - 1,218 / 135
Thursday 11 June - 1,266 / 151
Thursday 4 June - 1,805 / 176

boys3 · 02/07/2020 21:43

@Firefliess ; there a short note on the twitter feed, two corrections one down (big number) and one up (very small number). Presumably a more detailed explanation will follow on the dashboard. Will be interesting to see if it across the piece in terms of local authorities or more localised.

What an exciting evening Wink

PatriciaHolm · 02/07/2020 21:48

I suspect the 30k decline is all tied into finally getting some proper data out of the Pillar 2 testing, and being able to identify double counting (which we always knew was an issue, but obviously not to what extent).

FurForksSake · 02/07/2020 21:49

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=ltlas&map=rate this is now showing pillar one and two for LTLA.

PatriciaHolm · 02/07/2020 21:50

@Puzzledandpissedoff

Well, if that's correct it's one of those times I'm very glad to be wrong ...

Surprised, I admit, as I really did think they'd pull out something to dissuade folk taking silly risks, but as long as it's good news who cares?

TBH, I suspect those inclined to take silly risks couldn't give a toss what the Government numbers are!
Frazzled2207 · 02/07/2020 21:56

ok so the numbers are good,. On the cases page though (see below) can anyone tell me the difference between the daily cases and cases by nation? They aren't the same.

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases

PatriciaHolm · 02/07/2020 22:01

[quote Frazzled2207]ok so the numbers are good,. On the cases page though (see below) can anyone tell me the difference between the daily cases and cases by nation? They aren't the same.

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases[/quote]
Daily cases is Pillar 1 and Pillar 2, and has been for some time, 576 today.

Cases by nation seems to just to have been Pillar 1, but as of today is Pillar 2 as well. If you add the nations together you get 576. Previous days numbers aren't comparable as they are P1.