Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

@cathyandclare

The effects of last months are showing. Now that in the past few weeks it feels like a fiesta and holiday for many these are bound to go up sad

is that about Spain, here, or elsewhere TheSun ? I suppose there are bound to be clusters as things open up, the important thing is finding out about them, tracing contacts and isolating them.

Southwest london. People are flocking around pubs, riversides, parks in the areas that I've seen. It might be quite different elsewhere, but in richmond and twickenham areas it's seems like full on holiday for people.

I was also thinking we've seen quite a drop in cases now. Below 1000 for 3 days now out of past 5.

We should see this reflected in hospital admissions and deaths in 2-3 weeks?

I've noticed it's been quite steady.

1200-1500 positives.

350-370 admissions.

150-180 deaths.

There's seems to be a statistical pattern developing re percentage of admissions to cases and deaths from those on ventilators?

Bath is like that too

Sounds promising @ShootsFruitAndLeaves

Can't remember where (BBC news maybe?) it showed comparisons of our testing per 100 000 people compared to Spain and Italy (think those 2 countries?) we were almost double.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53157269

This was it

I agree people are out and about and have been for several weeks- but it's not reflected in the figures yet. Having said that, I've mostly seen small groups at a distance of I'm or more in general.

1 metre

.

This from fact checker is good re other countries apps fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-track-and-trace-app-boris-johnson/

To be fair, people in London have been "flocking around riversides and parks" since Easter and cases have been consistently going down. Hospital deaths have been in single digit numbers since the beginning of June.

It is relatively non controversial that relaxation of lockdown for outdoor activities (not involving singing or shouting) should not lead to a material spike of new cases.

We only had one positive case two weeks ago, 9th June in Bath. Nothing since.

They've been reporting that they think the colder temperatures and something to do with the air in the meat processing plant in Germany has caused the virus to spread more easily.

I'm feeling a lot more positive the last 3 days. New cases below 1000 every day and quite a big drop today.

For ages, it felt like it would never get below 1000.

Although people are out and about more, where I am, people are still being careful. More things don't open for another 1.5 weeks. Fingers crossed the downward trend continues!

People have been seeing others out and about having fun and saying the infection rates will go up for some time now though @sun. And they haven't. People doing anything outdoors are low risk, and if they're getting on top of testing and persuading contacts to isolate, it may be that we can keep things under control without lockdown, as long as we prevent the really high spreading events (nightclubs, parties, crowded trains, etc)

I was meaning 'flocking' to the shops in Bath acually

Where do you find really local stats? I can only find cases in the whole of my county.

I meant Bath & NE Somerset which would be the local county

Ah, ok. I don’t find the county stats very relevant so was hoping to find something more local.

The Times (sorry no share token) has some interesting articles on covid apps in different countries.

In short, some countries are doing better than others... but

No one has a really significant take up of the app. Germany is at the higher end at 10million downloads vs 80 million pop. France are at 1.5million.

And nowhere is the app having any meaningful impact on alerting people to quarantine or get tested.

The headline figure is that in France just 14 people have been told via the app that they have been in contact with someone whose tested positive. But even in Germany the figure in in the low hundreds.

Nowhere has got over the issues flagged by the Uk govt that the distance measuring isn't really very reliable either.

Fair to say that we are far behind the curve. But also fair to say that nowhere is an app moving the dial on the virus.

Anyone seen if the hospitalization figures are being published anywhere? Used to be on the briefing slides but obviously not getting those now. Thought I heard we would get all the data

@Littlebellina

They're published here every day

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895072/2020-06-24_COVID-19_coronavirus_slides.pdf

@littlebelina all the slides are still available each day on gov.uk

www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-on-coronavirus-24-june-2020

I saw on twitter today that calls about Covid made to 111 are also showing a significant reduction. I don't know where this information is available, or how accurate it is, but potentially good news.

318 admissions on 21.6
So going down, although they will vary a bit.