Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

New positive cases and new reported deaths

Monday 6 July - 352 / 16
Monday 29 June - 735 / 25
Monday 22 June - 865 / 15
Monday 15 June - 874 / 38
Monday 8 June - 1,089 / 55

Is 16 deaths across hospital and community please ?

@AnyFucker

Is 16 deaths across hospital and community please ?

Yes - though needs the normal disclaimer that it's a Monday, so there is a lot of data lag in there as quite a lot of trusts/homes don't report over weekends. It will be higher tomorrow and Wednesday at least.

Thanks

This suggests initial strain recommendations were April 1, updated mid May, and applications to change should be made by June 15.

Wow, fascinating. Thank you.

God, imagine being part of that - getting your strain recommendations in by the 1st April. Amazing.

Even for a Monday, that's so low. Almost half that of last monday?

@FurForksSake

Even for a Monday, that's so low. Almost half that of last monday?

It's 1 higher than the Monday before.

I guess with small figures you can have huge percentage swings, e.g. the 100% increase that was just two additional cases etc.

@FurForksSake

Even for a Monday, that's so low. Almost half that of last monday?

Yes, but one more than the Monday before. Mondays are weird!

Yes, all locations.

Sorry, cases not deaths. Deaths seem decidedly more bumpy to me.

Wow -the lowest cases for ages! Early march I reckon.

Deaths low aswell although it is Monday. It is 1 more death than 2 weeks ago but death data is a bit bumpy and it's not necessarily deaths in the last 24 hours.

Lowest Monday figure since March 16 (137) - week before lockdown

Really low cases today. That's reassuring.
Seems that beyond areas we know are an issue there is t much community transmission in general population atm.

Zero cases for Wales & NI !

Oops, not quite that good optimistic fingers

zero DEATHS for Wales & NI

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jul/06/uk-coronavirus-live-latest-updates-covid-19-news?page=with:block-5f032a1a8f0804b96dd6f7da#block-5f032a1a8f0804b96dd6f7da

Around 2.5m coronavirus tests sent out have effectively been wasted, government figures suggest.

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) says that since testing started a total of 10.5m tests have been “made available”
but only 8m of those have been “processed”.

That means that as many as a fifth of tests are either not being sent back to laboratories or are not capable of being processed.

Maybe difficulty getting swabs far enough in, especially for DC ?

But I'd like to know how many wasted tests were due to user error
and how many to lab mixups / losing tests / sample queued too long before processing etc

Department of Health and Social Caree@DHSCgovuk*

The majority of children currently shielding will soon be told by their doctor that they will no longer need to shield.

Independent evidence from @RCPCHtweets shows that the risk of serious illness from COVID19 for children is low.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/majority-of-children-no-longer-need-to-shield

a small group of children who receive specialist care in hospitals may need to carry on shielding following a consultation with their doctor.
This includes those receiving cancer care or those at risk of severe infection due to an immunodeficiency

< risk to DC other than those above is not just low; it's TINY
and now additionally there is v little community infection.
AGE is so dominant, do more than a v small number of under-40s need to continue shielding ? >

Actually I'm astounded it's only 20%.

I admit I’m a wasted test. I got a home one but it got delayed being sent out (I don’t know why, I just got a text). I had a hospital appointment & my babies jabs that I didn’t want to cancel in the next 48 hours so I rang 111 for advice. They told me to go straight to a test centre so I’d hopefully get my results back in time. So I did. And I got my results in 12 hours. Post one turned up 2 days after that 🙄 so I did just chuck it..

I've been waiting a week now for the results of a home test I sent back. They say they never received it but it was definitely sent back.

According to the BBC newsfeed: "Millions of UK coronavirus tests not recorded"

I totally believe this. They used to do it by courier (my first test came back 'unclear') and now you have to post it back yourself in a priority postbox.

They are somehow blaming individuals for not sending them back, I don't think this is the issue in all cases, I think their system is flawed.

So I struggle to believe the numbers.

@BigChocFrenzy

Maybe difficulty getting swabs far enough in, especially for DC ?

But I'd like to know how many wasted tests were due to user error
and how many to lab mixups / losing tests / sample queued too long before processing etc

I remember when the Gov were struggling to meet their 100k a day target and then they suddenly rocketed up people on Twitter were reporting getting postal test containing swabs but no return label or return label but no swabs.

There was also no corresponding increase in people tested each day and there was speculation tests were being sent to drive in centres and 'counted' but not actually 'used' as it was so hard to meet the testing criteria.

I also read yesterday that care homes are now being sent double or triple the tests they request. These all count as tests made available.

There are obviously failed tests such as those sent to US for processing - was it 30k? Plus people who never take, never return it, take too long to return it, tests which are inconclusive. But I'd bet the bulk of the 'lost' tests are actually in a stock room at the Pillar 2 test centres or various care homes and were sent to help reach the testing targets.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/14/oversupply-of-kits-to-care-homes-raises-concern-over-covid-19-test-figures

From mid June:

Care homes are receiving far more coronavirus testing kits than they order, raising concern that the extra supplies help the government inflate the number of people it claims have been tested.
The apparently widespread nature of the practice in England has prompted fresh suspicion that ministers are counting swab kits sent out as tests done to exaggerate official figures.
“We have had providers who told us they asked for 100 tests and got 500 tests. It doesn’t make sense,” Nadra Ahmed, executive chair of the National Care Association, which represents independent care homes, told the Guardian.

Can anyone point me to hospital admissions this week? Can’t find it

Actually found this which looks promising

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/daily-hospital-admissions-fall-coronavirus-18550988.amp