Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

I know Leicester has had all the attention but its cases per 100,000 rate is only just above that for Ashford, LTLA in Kent. 1034 vs 974.

@PatriciaHolm
thank you, I understand that now. There should definitely be some kind of footnote to explain that!

what is most positive in the numbers is that admissions seems to have gone down in england from 189 to 78 which is a huge drop. Also wales down from 105 to 67 but still think 67 is quite a lot for a fairly small country . Scotland seem to have cracked it in comparison (we don't have up to date hospital admissions data for Scotland but the last one was just 2).

Wow big decreases in figures all round -great news

Feel like I can go to bed now Yes, I am that sad that I like to know the daily figures!

@Frazzled2207

what is most positive in the numbers is that admissions seems to have gone down in england from 189 to 78 which is a huge drop. Also wales down from 105 to 67 but still think 67 is quite a lot for a fairly small country . Scotland seem to have cracked it in comparison (we don't have up to date hospital admissions data for Scotland but the last one was just 2).

I liked that too, though the magnitude of the England drop makes me slightly suspicious that there is some data lag there. There's no reason it should halve overnight! Given all the other indicators I'm sure it's declining, but that seems.....excessive.

@Frazzled2207 - absolutely especially when you consider population of England about 56 million, and Wales just over 3 million.

the most likely explanation for a sudden sharp drop is always that someone has missed a bit of data - one large health authority late to send it in. Perhaps it was late because someone was looking everywhere for it, they'll maybe find it tomorrow.

@boys3

I know Leicester has had all the attention but its cases per 100,000 rate is only just above that for Ashford, LTLA in Kent. 1034 vs 974.

I was looking at that boys3 but thinking that's the rate overall (across the pandemic) as opposed to current rate as the numbers are large and bbc just reported around 130 per 100000 for Leicester currently. I could be wrong though

and Boris shows up when he can announce something positive - so it will be a long list of where you can go without quarantine.

I noticed earlier that France still have 8,100 people in hospital but the UK has less than 4,000. That seems odd since the UK is still having more deaths and more cases than France. We also have a higher total of admissions over the whole pandemic than France.

Is this indicative of the fact that so many of our deaths are and have been in care homes? Are we still following a policy of not moving patients in care homes to hospitals? Or are the uk cases now being diagnosed in younger people so less hospitalization is needed compared to in France.

Apologies I couldn't get an English version of the French article but have circled the relevant stats.

I noticed earlier that France still have 8,100 people in hospital but the UK has less than 4,000. That seems odd since the UK is still having more deaths and more cases than France. We also have a higher total of admissions over the whole pandemic than France.

Is this indicative of the fact that so many of our deaths are and have been in care homes? Are we still following a policy of not moving patients in care homes to hospitals? Or are the uk cases now being diagnosed in younger people so less hospitalization is needed compared to in France.

Apologies I couldn't get an English version of the French article but have circled the relevant stats.

Perhaps they hospitalise more cases in France or keep them in longer for recovery?

Listeningquietly I've attached the latest German charts for:
. deaths wrt age & sex
. mean age, % hospitalised & deaths over the weeks
. ICU stats

The RKI (German public health) hasn't listed by comorbidity because age is such a dominant factor, that it is far more iportant than all but the tiny number of v seriously ill people

Risk doubles with every few years of age,
whereas few conditions double risk even once - T1 seems one of the most serious, with 2-3 x average risk for that age.

In all countries so far, risk is significantly higher from age 45+ and starts to rocket after age 60

In Germany, only 36 people have died under age 40

• that includes healthy and those (presumably almost all) with serious health conditions

Then another 72 aged 40-49

Those numbers are too few to generate useful stats for comorbidites

Age is what matters and especially here, where such a tiny % young or middle-age have died from a population of 83 million

Men seem to have about 2.5 x the risk of women,
when from age 70+ we weight for the larger % of women in the population

As in several other countries, the average age of infection has fallen,
hence the % of current cases hospitalised and death rate has also fallen

At the peak:
20% of confirmed cases needed hospitalisation
2% ICU
but both stats are lower now

25% of those in ICU for COVID have died

Germany makes home visits and hospitalises for O2 earlier than for the UK,
but I don't know wrt your friend's area of the USA

.

Are France just better at keeping them alive?!

@boys3 and @littlebellina The local authority level data is not by date still. So it's very little use - you can't tell whether somewhere had high numbers at the start, or has a current outbreak. It's still only the pillar 2 cases in the spreadsheet that you can download, which are a minority. So the data you need to spot local outbreaks or to know what the risk is in your local area isn't really there. Only the chart at county level.

[quote Firefliess]**@boys3* and @littlebellina* The local authority level data is not by date still. So it's very little use - you can't tell whether somewhere had high numbers at the start, or has a current outbreak. It's still only the pillar 2 cases in the spreadsheet that you can download, which are a minority. So the data you need to spot local outbreaks or to know what the risk is in your local area isn't really there. Only the chart at county level. [/quote]
The surveillance spreadsheet does have cases per 100,000 population at ULTA level (150 local areas) and we now have 2 weeks of that so the data exists but only in spreadsheets, not in any useful way for most people to access!

[quote Firefliess]**@boys3* and @littlebellina* The local authority level data is not by date still. So it's very little use - you can't tell whether somewhere had high numbers at the start, or has a current outbreak. It's still only the pillar 2 cases in the spreadsheet that you can download, which are a minority. So the data you need to spot local outbreaks or to know what the risk is in your local area isn't really there. Only the chart at county level. [/quote]
Sorry if I'm misunderstanding - are you talking about the cases .csv you can download from the old coronavirus.data.gov.uk site? The Local Authority numbers have definitely been backdated and are far higher - they are Pillar 1 +2 aren't they?

Sorry if I'm misunderstanding - are you talking about the cases .csv you can download from the old coronavirus.data.gov.uk site? The Local Authority numbers have definitely been backdated and are far higher - they are Pillar 1 +2 aren't they?

Yes I've just looked at it! It's backdated P1&P2 by local authority. Hurrah!

@Quarantino yes the delightful csv :), but it has been fully updated and contains both upper tier LAs and the district councils showing combined total. It is a pity they could not have separate P1 and P2 columns in the spreadsheet along with a totals column.

@Firefliess I think I was a bit hasty labelling Ashford with Leicester. Running a pivot against the excel file gives build up by day, so the Ashford is not surging like Leicester.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/03/englands-quarantine-to-be-dropped-for-spain-italy-france-and-germanyy___

English (not Scottish) holidaymakers will be able to visit Spain, Italy, France and Germany without having to quarantine for 14 days on their return
and travel restrictions on up to 60 other countries and territories are also set to be lifted.

The government’s rule change will come into effect on 10 July ....
The full list of countries is due to be released at lunchtime on Friday.

Another data cleanse, and a massive one too!.... Apparently over 30,000 UK cases have been double counted!

“The methodology for reporting positive cases changed on 2 July 2020 to remove duplicates within and across pillars 1 and 2, to ensure that a person who tests positive is only counted once. Due to this change, and a revision of historical data in pillar 1, the cumulative total for positive cases is 30,302 lower than if you added the daily figure to yesterday’s total.”

This puts us down to 8th for cumulative cases behind Spain, Peru and Chile.

Overall, this means we’re doing better than the stats had led us to believe, and now seemingly much more similar to many other European countries for daily cases rather than notably higher.

Given that Pillar 2 testing has only been significant for the past couple of months, that means on average the figures included around 500 duplicates every day , though this presumably fell as infections fell in recent weeks.

Why were 200 cases added to my town, Folkestone day-on-day? Is this likely to be some sort of correction?

Hi everyone, I wanted to post and thank Barracker, BigChoc, and others on this thread for keeping me company over the last few months; you have kept me sane.

dd who is nursing in London has just told me that her ward will, on Monday, revert to "normal". She has spend the last three and a half months working between Covid and non-Covid (trauma) and has had a horrible time. During that time she has worked without the correct PPE, has coped with a ridiculous rate of patients dying, has liased with family members and has, basically, had a complete breakdown .

She will, after all of this, be a better nurse - though I fear her mental health will be affected long term. It's not normal to expect a 22 year old to be nurse in charge of a ward where half a dozen people die on one shift. In normal times she would still be a junior, supported and supervised at every turn.

However, she has survived, she is coming home next week for a break (she hasn't been home in six months) and I am incredibly proud of her, as I am of all her friends and colleagues who have kept going throughout.

I'm off to namechange so many thanks again to all who have provided factual information on this thread and all its predecessors.