Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

On 12th March Italy had 15,113 cases and 1,016 deaths. Today, just 16 days later, we have overtaken them with 17,089 cases and 1019 deaths.

I'm not sure about case numbers because I don't compare those (too variable), but we haven't overtaken Italy in terms of death rate.

About six days ago we were exactly two weeks behind Italy - we were both on 233 fatalities, two weeks apart. Since that date Italy's death rate accelerated quite a lot quicker than ours, to the point where on 14th March they had 1441 deaths compared with our 1019 today.

Just posting to follow this thread if that's ok? I won't be able to contribute much because I am mathematical dunce but I'd like to read more factual information, and honestly I can't stand to be on any more threads where people are being told to "stop killing people!" because they merely asked something the MN corona enforcement squad don't approve of.

Is he still alive alloutoffucks* or is he dead like the Queen?
Even with the Coronavirus, he is still an epidemiologist.

I thought they said we were 2 weeks behind Italy?

utterlybutterly8 I find it helpful to look at the other death rates too as it gives it huge perspective.

FATEdestiny - they definitely said we were four weeks behind Italy. They said it multiple times in the press conference and used it to justify their inaction (at this press conference they said there was no need to avoid mass gatherings or close schools, just advised over 70s not to go on cruises)

Direct link here - 38 minutes in you can hear them discuss the four week lag, despite all the international experts telling them we were just two weeks behind

m.youtube.com/watch?v=yEM7IZQEg4A&t=38m1s

I would have thought a decent epidemiologist would know what to do to personally avoid getting covoid 19.

I thought they said we were 2 weeks behind Italy?

That's what they said on 22nd March:

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/storm-coming-experts-say-14-days-behind-italy-rules-uk-bed-rationing/

But since then if you look at the daily numbers, Italy's death rate accelerated at a faster rate than ours.

I remember that. My boss called me on the Friday (she was going skiing) and repeated this I was because anyone could see it was 2 weeks.

That weekend Spain locked down and France closed the ski resorts.

Why is everyone so focused on Italy even though we are clearly not tracking the same way? Is it because they are the worst

Why are folks not looking at other countries, like China, to see comparable tracks.

It feels like Italy is used as some form of way to cause hysteria. The worst case scenario we see on here so much. Even when it’s blatantly obvious we are not tracking the same, the same people are still screaming we are tracking like Italy and running behind them. If it was anything other than this, these folks would be looking at other counties too. They aren’t.

It’s very odd. And rather disconcerting.

That weekend Spain locked down and France closed the ski resorts.
Meanwhile that weekend in the UK, the Cheltenham Festival went ahead with thousands of people attending. Criminal negligence from our government.

Please, try not to characterise people as 'doomsters'.

People who already knew back on March 12th that 'four weeks behind Italy' was actually more like 'two weeks behind' were called doomsters back then, or hysterical. Two weeks on, and we were much closer to the truth than Whitty.

The name calling shuts down open discussion.

Please can we let people discuss the numbers rationally without emotive put downs.
There are a few on the thread whose predictions I disagree with, but we're managing to rub along ok.
Some people have more optimistic projections, others less so.
Time will reveal all, sadly.
But the thread is for people who want accurate numbers, and graphs, and data, and analysis. That isnt going to suit everyone.

The thread is staying pretty civil for now. My thanks to all contributers.

Avg increase in UK COVID-19 deaths over latest three day period: 30%

For perspective, here are the 3day avg increases in other countries at the same stage in their outbreaks:

Italy 20%
Spain 26%
France 25%
China 12%

@Bluntness100, I can only speak for myself but I honestly can’t judge whether I should trust China’s figures or not. I’ve read so much refuting their figures and roughly the same amount arguing that they’re about right I genuinely can’t pick out what I should believe. I think Italy is probably the most accurate picture of what might be lying ahead.

And thank you Barr I'm not really contributing but I'm reading.

For the first time in 20 odd years since an assault I've started suffering anxiety. I got over it before and I will do again.

But I'm someone that needs the facts to keep me calm and help me manage it. Even if the facts aren't exactly a joyful read!

Why are folks not looking at other countries, like China, to see comparable tracks.

Just a guess, but could it be because the situation in China with regards to lockdown etc isn't at all similar to the UK approach. However, there are some comparisons between the UK situation and Italy / Spain.

pocket at the moment we are not tracking Italy.

That may change, it's still too early to say. I pray that we don't start tracking Italy.

On the same track as Italy or not quite as bad, it's still an alarming one day rise in the UK and almost certain to increase.

Sorry if a silly question but can anyone tell how we will know when we are near the peak? Are we climbing towards it at the moment I’m guessing?

Thanks for this thread, finding it so useful

Bird yes it is very scary.

As upsetting and scary as it is, hopefully it makes the idiots realise this is not a holiday or a game.

@Bluntness100 I'm probably not supposed to do this on MN, but can I say how much I appreciate your calm, sensible and measured posts across so many of these threads?

We all know this is serious, but with the competition for the worst possible scenario that's going on I really value your input ... if you're not already some kind of MH worker you probably should be

I know my previous post got lost in the noise but the amount of new cases seems to have slowed. It was up by 2885 previously, now up by 2536? Or am I reading it incorrectly? If it is lower then that's a positive right?

@Bluntness100, I can only speak for myself but I honestly can’t judge whether I should trust China’s figures or not. I’ve read so much refuting their figures and roughly the same amount arguing that they’re about right I genuinely can’t pick out what I should believe. I think Italy is probably the most accurate picture of what might be lying ahead.

I agree - I don't feel I can trust the Chinese government's figures.

This doesn't exactly fill me with confidence!

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/chinas-premier-warns-local-officials-not-to-cover-up-new-covid-19-cases-as-hubei-reopens