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Covid
Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread
Barracker · 15/03/2020 14:42
I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.
Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data
Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:
UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21
This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41
I'll add today's numbers when they are released.
itsgettingweird · 29/03/2020 15:05
I'm glad else noted the mortality rates in 2018 being unusually high too.
Or rather higher. Fate do you have the rates for years previous to 2017 to see any more comparison?
That worldometer has us with a much lower critical and serious number than Italy and Spain. I would assume that's why they are still having such large numbers of deaths and increasing?
RIP 206 
Utterlybutterly8 · 29/03/2020 15:06
Thanks for the latest figures. So 40 less deaths than yesterday but still a very high number of course.
Italy was on 1809 deaths at this stage two weeks ago, compared with our 1228. Sixteen days ago Italy was on 1266, so it's looking like we are now 16 days behind Italy rather than 14 days as some were saying.
I don't think there's any point even looking at the number of cases as there will be so many not recorded. We really have no idea what the true picture is on that front.
itsgettingweird · 29/03/2020 15:11
Looking at worldometer and number of cases vs critical the percentages vary massively.
This may be to do with the fact our testing is still quite low with regards our active cases but it would improve our figures dramatically.
It would seem (if I've done the math right 
)
Italy 5.5% active cases are critical
Spain 7.5%
Uk 1.1%
Of course it alls to do with many factors such as how we are behind and how those active cases progress etc. But it's certainly a statistic worth keeping an eye on imo.
Especially as we know it's the critical and serious column that are likely to indicate morality rates.
Humphriescushion · 29/03/2020 15:13
Have been lurking on this thread and would like to thank you for the analysis, and explanations. It helps me to try monitor the figures and this thread has helped me a lot. My analaytical skills are not good so thank you.
I have a few questions if someone could help. Why are they saying that Spains no.s are the highest today? I see them as lower on the worldometer? Around 550 deaths? Why are they saying 800 plus in the guardian and other papers? Have i been misreading?
Also Finding a breakdown of Wales' figures is eluding me. I can see totals but no longer for individual health boards. I am looking for aneurin bevan and cant seem to find on the phwales site. Am i looking in the wrong place?
I monitor spain and wales closely have close family in both areas. Am in france so am able to find those.
Wallywobbles · 29/03/2020 15:25
Very good factual analysis of the Italian deaths.
swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
Eyewhisker · 29/03/2020 16:07
A word of caution on the government’s stats. The government’s advisor, Neil Ferguson, predicted 150,000 deaths from BSE. In fact less than 200 died
www.newscientist.com/article/dn1772-vcjd-deaths-will-rise-if-uk-sheep-have-bse/
This is the problem with these models. When you multiply any parameter by a very large number such as 65m, even very small changes in assumptions can give wildly different results. If the true death rate is like Germany, which is plausible as they are testing much more widely, than the top end estimates may be totally out. Probably not by the factor of 1,000 that Ferguson was wrong by in BSE but possibly by 10-100 times.
peridito · 29/03/2020 16:35
Today's press briefing - media question re nos of reported deaths accurately reflecting people dying .Questioner says letter from Kings Trust stating seeing more deaths in their hospitals than those reported .
Dr Jenny Harries replies it's down to time lag in reporting - todays numbers are deaths are of deaths that happened those ocurring ?24/36 hours ago .Plus implies delay also due to informing families .
But ,personally ,I think hospital trusts would have factored these issues and are raising it with media because even having done this they think reported numbers are too low .
Barracker · 29/03/2020 16:53
That's really interesting peridito
I've just taken a look at where the 190 England cases just reported came from.
And what struck me immediately was how many of the 190 are deaths that actually occurred days ago. The dates are next to the cases. It seems each day's figures are inclusive of a high proportion of much earlier deaths, swept up into the figures.
I had assumed that almost all figures were accurate to the previous day's deaths, and a handful might be a day or two late in being included in the figures.
But it's much more than that.
Look at the screenshot of the first few trusts. There is a significant lag in deaths being reported and joining the tally.
This worries me.
DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 29/03/2020 17:55
Presume some of the longest-lag death reports are those that have been diagnosed after death?
The news seem to have stopped using the language that weirded me out a week ago ‘have died after testing positive’ and have now started saying ‘Coronavirus related death’.
happinessischocolate · 29/03/2020 18:20
I wish they would release more info about the ages etc of the people who have died even if it's just 5 people in 18-24 category 10 people aged 45-54 etc. I've just been reading a link that someone posted that says 90% of the Italian deaths are people over 70 and have no way of knowing is this true ?
DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 29/03/2020 18:25
Here is the first UK report on COVID19 ICU patients:
www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b
It’s the source data for the Guardian article mentioned a few posts above.
Derbygerbil · 29/03/2020 18:30
I have a few questions if someone could help. Why are they saying that Spains no.s are the highest today? I see them as lower on the worldometer? Around 550 deaths? Why are they saying 800 plus in the guardian and other papers? Have i been misreading?
Spain seem to release its data in stages it seems. In previous days it’s released additional numbers late in the evening.
It’s the same with the USA figures, only even more apparent... Final figures don’t seem to be updated until the early hours just before it resets. Yesterday they had over 500 deaths for instance.
DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 29/03/2020 23:20
I’m not clear on exactly what they are reporting either.
(apologies for the tangent, but one of my favourite musicians has been admitted to ICU with COVID 19 symptoms - John Prine. He’s 73 and has had cancer twice. Lives in Nashville but also has homes in Florida and Galway. Still touring so could be in hospital almost anywhere: m.youtube.com/watch?v=P8tTwXv4glY )
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