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Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread
Barracker · 15/03/2020 14:42
I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.
Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
worldometer global data
Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:
March 14th 2020:
This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41
I'll add today's numbers when they are released.
Barracker · 16/03/2020 14:44
We have to draw conclusions from the deaths, Marpan, assuming that most deaths in hospital are being correctly attributed to CV.
CV deaths in the community won't be included in the figures, nor will hospital deaths from any untested patients.
Number of cases only reflects the small number of tests carried out on critical patients from this point on.
FatimaLovesBread · 16/03/2020 15:49
I've been told I have Covid 19 today. However it's diagnosed purely on symptoms. I don't understand how we can get true figures at all now.
I was told they are not testing anyone by both GP and nhs111 nurse, neither mentioned inpatient testing just said no one is being tested.
I am currently on day 8 and it has definitely not been a mild case, but thankfully has not turned to pneumonia and my body seems to finally be fighting it off.
Can we even trust the death figures now if testing is reduced?
MitebiteonFrightNite · 16/03/2020 15:57
England figures not released again yet, the single death is in Wales.
Does anyone else find themselves doing a terror-scroll after 2pm? I can't stop myself. I have real issues with uncertainty and feeling like things are out of control, and I feel like I can't settle until I know what the situation is. It's pathetic I know. I'm trying to keep busy, but I've not been well for some time (long term respiratory issues on top of other things) and keeping busy is exhausting.
peepholepringle · 16/03/2020 16:02
My personal feeling is that the official figures being released are beyond pointless at this stage.
I completely understand that they are so overwhelmed that they are unable to test everyone that could need it but the figures will be absolutely nowhere near accurate anymore.
OldQueen1969 · 16/03/2020 16:17
Thanks for this thread - another to add to my ever growing number of open tabs as I try to keep up with things - not because I'm enjoying the drama but I cling to the old maxim that knowledge is power.
Bit of a shame that our knowledge is scant in the UK but we'll just have to make do I suppose. What a time to be alive!
MitebiteonFrightNite · 16/03/2020 16:30
OldQueen I think that's how I feel. DH thinks I'm stressing myself out more by constantly scrolling, and possibly I am. But I feel like we're being kept in the dark so much, I just want to know everything I can. My sister is of the 'we can't do anything so why worry' school of thought and I wish I was there with her.
WombOfOnesOwn · 16/03/2020 16:49
Mumsnet deleted my thread (without telling me why!) where I showed that mathematically, even with a relatively low spread population-wise, COVID is likely to be the single most likely cause of death for ALL age groups 10 and up, including 10-19 year olds, this year.
I'd love to know why a thread like that was deleted, especially since the mathematics were sound. Would this be an appropriate place to post it?
Barracker · 16/03/2020 17:30
I think you should try to post here WombOfOnesOwn keeping speculation restricted to maths projections.
For example, I'm trying not to predict the future numbers, but am framing posts (when I remember) in terms of "When Italy was at similar numbers, the following week they were at x".
Experience of certain restrictive guidelines on particular boards are excellent training in choosing words carefully.
WombOfOnesOwn · 16/03/2020 19:04
Statistics for the US, where childhood is a bit more dangerous than the UK (thanks, lack of gun control!), show that childhood deaths in the 10-19 age range happen at an annual prevalence of approximately 30 per 100,000. For reference, pediatric cancers kill about 2-3 children per 100,000 per year in this age group. Motor vehicle accidents account for about 10-15 per 100,000 depending on the specifics of where the child lives.
According to the best estimates we have from WHO about the mortality rate of this virus in all age groups, children 10-19 are .2%, or two-tenths of a percent, 2 in 1000, likely to die from coronavirus infection.
To get an equivalent per 100,000 ratio from our number in 1000, we multiply the numerator and denominator by 100, and that's 200 in 100,000.
If every person in the UK contracted the virus (obviously an unlikely scenario!), 200 out of every 100,000 children 10-19 years old again, according to WHO figures, and we've seen none lower than those anywhere would be expected to die.
However, we don't think that's really the ratio who will contract it! Let's in fact say that containment measures and social distancing are somewhat effective, enough to confine infection to about 20% of the population.
20% of 200 is still 40 out of every 100,000. This is a higher rate than combined "all causes" mortality for this age group, by a significant amount.
Even if we've significantly underestimated the number of "mild" cases of coronavirus in children let's say 10 times more children have undiagnosed cases that are so mild they're never tested, compared to children who are confirmed positive we'd be looking at reducing that again by dividing by 10, for a result of 4 children in every 100,000.
So even if there's a huge population of "dark cases" where children get immunity without illness, and even if population spread is contained, we can expect coronavirus to kill more 10-19 year olds this year than pediatric cancer.
If we are NOT vastly overestimating the death numbers for children, we are looking, even in a relatively well-contained scenario, at a number of deaths far exceeding "all causes mortality" for their age group in a typical year.
I cannot understand when people look at a .2% death rate for children and shrug it off. Absolutely nothing in the world we have seen in our lifetimes with a potential to infect so many people kills off .2% of children. Parents absolutely dread pediatric cancers, but even highly-optimistic analysis of the statistics generated so far would indicate that this is a greater danger to the 10-19 year olds of 2020 than cancer.
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