Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

I was reading another forum and posters were rightly pointing out that the Chinese government have a tendency for lying even when there’s nothing obvious to be gained from it (apparently there was a scandal around baby milk and melamine? and various others).

I think their leadership is pretty tense at the moment anyway given the Hong Kong protests amongst other things.

@Bluntness100

We may not have been accelerating at Italy’s rate, but I’d say we’re closer to them than China. On their worst day China recorded 150 deaths. We are already at 260 per day and seemingly on an quite a sharp upwards trend.

Why is everyone so focused on Italy even though we are clearly not tracking the same way?

Because some people disagree with this, and think we are tracking very similarly. I think this.

There is more than one metric that can be compared.
If I compare cumulative deaths, it makes us 16 days behind them.
If I compare daily deaths, we are closer to 14 days behind them.
I don't compare cases, as we are testing differently, although I believe Italy also began restricting testing to hospital admissions weeks ago. I think they are testing HCPs too though, as I've read that 15% of cases are frontline medical people.

I'm also aware we only have half the ICU beds per capita of Italy, and that London is our Lombardy. So I'm anticipating the awfulness of capacity limitations hitting sooner.

China, the example you give, showed a distinct diversion from the exponential curve two weeks after their combined case tracking/isolation/lockdown measures.
We are not there yet, nor are Italy.

China managed to get a grip on transmission within families by removing infected individuals from the household.
We are not doing this, families are quarantining together and transmission is still occurring within households.

It's risky to be falsely optimistic in projections, because if those predictions are then exceeded by reality then despair and fear follows.

The graphs I posted upthread from the FT are really helpful. Noone needs to be able to overanalyse numbers to be able to see the shape of a curve.

It's risky to be falsely optimistic in projections, because if those predictions are then exceeded by reality then despair and fear follows.

I agree.... @Bluntness100 You have been relentlessly over-optimistic over the past few days.... From welcoming the “low” rise in deaths on Wednesday and slamming those who questioned the figure as morbid (those who questioned were correct).... to stating the following day that the trends clearly showed a downward trajectory in deaths and slamming those who challenged this as mad (again, the maths showed those who challenged were correct.

Dismissing people who are concerned we are following Italy’s path as being completely wrong seems to be another case of excess optimism.

We will control and beat this, but all you are doing is repeatedly providing false hope

I suspect the political systems and country culture makes a difference too. People living under communism are more likely to behave as instructed (or are more afraid of the punishment if they disobey?).

Doors to flats were sealed shut to prevent infected people from leaving. Extreme measures like that aren’t going to be replicated in the UK, US, France, Spain etc.

Plus, East Asian countries have had prior experience with SARS and have been developing robust systems in the time since. Look at the extreme PPE frontline workers are wearing as an example. Plus all the track and trace gps surveillance means their ‘containment’ stage has been more effective.

My Thai friend says all mask-making has been nationalised pretty much overnight.

Looking at our government HCID documents, it seems to me that our government never really believed we’d be ever be dealing with any more than a couple of handfuls of imported cases of any new infectious disease.

I don’t necessarily believe things here will get as bad as Italy (we had more preparation time and confirmed cases aren’t so regionalised, which is better for health care resources) but I can see no reason why we would be more likely to have a curve like China’s, than a curve like another European country.

I really appreciate this thread, btw. Things are getting really snippy out there, I’ve been called a ‘screeching weirdo’ on AIBU for backing up my positions with sources. Apparently randomly spouting easily disproved bullshit is the new normal, and checking your facts before you post makes you ‘odd’ and ‘creepy’.

Yes this wasn't taken seriously. I could see it was coming as could some others. It will kill lots over the next few weeks, and I suspect the number of increasing dead will put pressure on the government to do more. Really at far too late a stage.
Remember they wanted all schools to remain open till Easter and only changed their mind because teachers were self isolating and parents were pulling their kids out.

www.mumsnet.com/uploads/talk/202003/large-594915-image1

Tried to copy above the image that @soberfabulous posted upthread.

Does this indicate that we are climbing less steeply than Italy, and/or that having the same numbers they had 2/3 whatever weeks ago doesn't mean we will have the same numbers they went on to have after that exact time, iyswim?

Small bit of light relief for those who love a good statistics graphic.

😁

FATE thanks for the chuckle

Apparently though the daily deaths can include ones from a few days ago from all over the country. These aren't exact numbers per day.

It may be better to look at numbers week on week or over 3/4 days.

We had a 'dip' earlier this week but some of today's and yesterday's numbers may have included deaths that actually occurred on that day.

• • • AMENDED DAILY UPDATE * * *

(9 extra deaths have been added to figures)

Saturday MARCH 28th

Total UK cases: 17,089
New UK cases: 2546
Total UK Deaths: 1028
New UK Deaths: 269

I think for some of us like me who are not used to analysing data/stats,
there may be a point of confusion.

When you say we are x days behind Italy, you are meaning that our figures today are what theirs were x days ago. I think a lot of people hear 'we are x days behind Italy' and think that is based on trajectory predictions and that it means we are on track to be where they currently are in x days. We may well be looking at the trajectories but that is a slightly different calculation, right?

@Inkpaperstars that’s correct!

Question about negative test results.

120k tests done in UK
17k positive
103k negative

These people testing negative. Is it a correct assumption that most of these people have:
● got confirmed coronavirus symptoms
● been admitted to hospital (so assume their symptoms are serious)
● Yet dont have coronavirus

So 85% of those with serious symptoms do not have the virus.

Falsely negative tests are a concern worldwide:

apple.news/APxeEQHBIRw2YTW7cYx21zQ

I don’t know exactly what types of test we are using nor how it works, nor if we are consistently using one kind of test all over the UK.

Does anyone else have info on that?

We must be testing some with mild symptoms, or Prince Chas and Boris wouldn’t have been tested?

I know someone who had a private test via an employer’s health care program (works for Conde Nast, London office).

@Utterlybutterly8

Thank you! I can confirm one very steep trajectory here is the learning curve for me and probably lots of others. At least I hope it's not just me

I saw this today

😂

@Barracker

You're correct in your assessment, inkpaperstars. Although, obviously, a series of snapshots eventually builds to a trajectory.

Graphic representations help the eye to see the pattern.
Individual stats such as "today is less than yesterday" can easily be anomalies.

thanks Barracker
Very useful thread

I get we all look at it differently but there is no doubt. No way round the fact, we are not tracking like Italy.

I get some people also don’t trust the Chinese numbers and think there has been some form of cover up, some big conspiracy, irrelevant of the who and cdc saying not. However it doesn’t change the fact we are not tracking like Italy.

All I can say is I hope we don’t track like Italy and for sensible discussion I’d have expected people to be tracking other countries, to look to see if we were tracking like any one else. The fact this isn’t occurring, it is always Italy, the worst hit country in the whole world. Does indeed look like the typical worst case scenario chasing this site is littered with.

It is indeed risky to be falsely optimistic, I agree totally, but it’s beyond awful and much worse to be falsely pessimistic, and I personally have not been falsely optimistic, I have done nothing more than quote scientists, namely imperial, who are advising the government, calling me falsely optimistic is actually calling them it.

And I will continue to post their views, or other scientists, to balance this awful worst case scenario posting that is occurring, and to provide something from at least experts and not people’s personal views, based on both conspiracy theory and their own unqualified projections. Whilst dressing it up as “ well I don’t trust China”.

Puzzled, thank you. ☺️

On another note, does anyone know why today’s positive cases has dropped?