Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

"Could someone remind me how we’re recording coronavirus deaths in the UK - does everyone who dies and has coronavirus get recorded as a CV fatality and included in the death toll, even if they had other serious health conditions?"

My understanding is the same as Bourdic's - that everyone who dies in hospital who has tested positive for cv is included in the figures.

I don't think any questioner has asked about this at the press conferences.

Do we think that press questions are submitted and vetted first ?

I’m assuming the questions are vetted if only to prevent the same question being asked multiple times, but then sometimes they ask things based on what’s just been said so can’t be fully expected.

Re stats of deaths, does that mean, for example, elderly people in care homes dying of coronavirus wouldn’t be part of the stats if they haven’t had a test but they likely have it? Would they be tested for a post mortum to be included in the stats or would their death cause be given as something else?

This is interesting - in one town in italy they tested everyone after the first symptomatic case and found 3% of the population were infected, but mainly asymptomatic
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/eradicated-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo

I hope that means the virus has actually spread far quicker than thought and we can get out of lockdown sooner

Really governments should start doing some random testing to identify the underlying infection rate

I think that’s the plan with the first million anti body tests? If they send them out to a selected sample they should be able to get some kind of percentage figure?

Re stats of deaths, does that mean, for example, elderly people in care homes dying of coronavirus wouldn’t be part of the stats if they haven’t had a test but they likely have it? Would they be tested for a post mortum to be included in the stats or would their death cause be given as something else?

I would like to know this too.

@QuentinWinters thanks for sharing - that is positive.

I thought the antibody tests were for NHS workers first. But i agree, a sample of the population, at random, would be really useful.

I also wonder how many tests are being used to determine if people have recovered. If they need at least two negative tests 3 days apart, they might have to do it a few times before they reach that figure. So that could be several tests per person to check recovery, rather than to test new cases. I'm not sure which is more important!

Neil ferguson said this morning first they would use the anitbody tests to do systematic sampling, then will move on to use them operationally, testing healthcare workers. (For those interested, you can listen on the BBC today website - I think he was on at about 7.50am ish, maybe a bit after that.)

The first Antigen tests are for patients and NHS workers and antibody tests will be used for sampling and for clearing NHS workers to get back to work after having had symptoms.
I think?

It’s all clear as mud really.

Beth Rigby tweeted that current death figures are only those who die in hospital but they will start doing weekly deaths outside hospitals from tomorrow.

Worldometer showing 187 deaths in UK today with the source for the figures as Sky News.

Yes, I'm loathe to update though, because the sky news article they link to adds up to 180, not 189.

Increase of 180 deaths

Beth Rigby tweeted that current death figures are only those who die in hospital but they will start doing weekly deaths outside hospitals from tomorrow.

It's tomorrow ie day 19 that the daily figures for Italy figures shot up from 175 to 368 then 349, 345 and then 475

Does anyone have know who more than about why we can't get tests? We know all about ventilators, but what on the earth has been going on with all these various tests. Who makes Germany s for example?

THREAD CLOSED .

NEW THREAD

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3865089-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-2?pg=1

It's not closed though