Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

Gov.co.uk just update

The amount of new cases seems to have slowed though. It was up by 2885 previously, now up by 2536? Or am I reading it incorrectly?

When it says on the PHE tweet that xxx number hospitalised have sadly died, does that mean any individuals that die in the community are not counted in the figures?

As of 9am on 28 March 2020, a total of 120,776 people have been tested, of which 103,687 were confirmed negative and 17,089 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 27 March 2020, 1,019 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.

This is where it gets worse. We knew this was coming. Stay safe everyone.

This is where it gets worse. We knew this was coming. Stay safe everyone.

6529 new cases and 552 new deaths in Spain - from Worldometer today. The source linked is in Spanish so I can’t read to see if there are any more regions to come, but if these are the complete figures for today while they are terrible, they do seem somewhat better than yesterday. I hope so anyway. Does anyone know more?

Unfortunately I don’t believe they are... I thought the same as you the other day, only to see the numbers increase late evening... they seem to be releasing in batches. I think this is similar to the numbers at this point yesterday so hopefully they are at least stabilising.

Thanks for the update. It's not actually that surprising, we are going to see some eyewatering numbers for a week or two at least as it accelerates, hard as it will be to witness.

Hopefully the distancing measures will feed through in a couple of weeks time.

@Derbygerbil 832 deaths in the last 24 hours in Spain, see my post earlier with a link to El Pais.

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Saturday MARCH 28th

Total UK cases: 17,089
New UK cases: 2546
Total UK Deaths: 1019
New UK Deaths: 260

We just kind of need to hold our nerve during this, not panic, do as requested, if we have several days of sharp increases, but hopefully it is only several days.😞

On French TV its reporting the UK at 1019 deaths now.

I know it’s coming but my stomach still drops every time new numbers are announced.

Now's the time it's starts to get scary in the UK as the numbers start to climb a lot day by day. We've seen it happen here in Spain and it's terrifying. But now's the time for everyone to hold their nerve and stay inside as much as possible. The numbers will climb for some time.

Yes I agree the numbers are going to climb for the next couple of weeks hold steady for a week or two and then drop. Its going to be a month I tihnk before it starts to go down

Italy hopefully should within the next week or so start to go down

The numbers will also increase now that testing of NHS staff has started.

So it won't mean there is necessarily more cases but there are more being diagnosed as testing range has widened.

Tout this in context a GP poster in another thread mentioned that in the UK every day around 1,500 people die. Without this.

We just kind of need to hold our nerve during this, not panic, do as requested, if we have several days of sharp increases, but hopefully it is only several days.

Sorry to be negative but I think we have several weeks of this in store now rather than days. I think we can expect steep rises until Easter weekend or the weekend after, when numbers will peak. On a positive note, once we have peaked then things WILL start to get better.

Now's the time it's starts to get scary in the UK as the numbers start to climb a lot day by day. We've seen it happen here in Spain and it's terrifying. But now's the time for everyone to hold their nerve and stay inside as much as possible. The numbers will climb for some time.

Yes, there's no doubt we're ascending the steep incline of the curve now. It's going to be a very difficult few weeks

Italy hopefully should within the next week or so start to go down

When that happens I think it will give us hope.

Or also, see here to compare with other illnesses etc as an example www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/06/deaths-mortality-rates-cause-death-2011

This graph (from worldometer) is always a day behind. But it shows the daily deaths (not cumulative). By tomorrow, there will be a bar showing 260 for today's figures.

Reminder that on 12th March, in their infamous herd immunity press conference, BoJo, Witty and Valance all confidently claimed we were four weeks behind Italy and that it was far too soon to be putting in any social distancing measures.

m.youtube.com/watch?t=38m1s&v=yEM7IZQEg4A

On 12th March Italy had 15,113 cases and 1,016 deaths.

Today, just 16 days later, we have overtaken them with 17,089 cases and 1019 deaths.

Well done UK 'experts'. You really showed those foreign scientists at the WHO that all you need is a plummy British accent and an Oxbridge education, no need for actual real world experience in dealing with pandemics

Or also, see here to compare with other illnesses etc as an example

Thanks Orange - it definitely helps my anxious thoughts to put this into context. Yes it's very serious, but the death rate is tiny compared to cancer, which killed 143,000 people in 2011 according to that link.

Chris Whitty is an epidemiologist. I was hoping this thread wouldn’t attract the doomsters but clearly it’s like bees to nectar.

Chris Whitty also has covoid 19.