worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 18

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Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england

WHO advice for the public
www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

Its not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus. Please provide updated link if possible, I haven't been able to make this one work.

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

For research on CV and babies:
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761659

Please add in other links for any wanting to increase their understanding and decrease their anxiety!

Was really hoping we would move out of the containment phase today. I have to attend a large international event in London for a few days next week. No choice unfortunately now...

The posters banging on about Boris only caring about themselves need to get clued up on the economy. If we went into austerity measures, you’d be complaining about that as well

When Nicola sturgeon made this "worst case 100000 deaths" statement was she talking about the UK or Scotland.

Scotland has a population of 5.4 million
80% of that is 4.3 million cases, 100000 deaths from that would be cfr 2.4% which is somewhere between WHO current cfr of 3.4% and the less than 1% we are all hoping is still possible.

So 100000 deaths in Scotland would be a reasonable worst case figure.

It is normal in any epidemic to have a lot of undetected cases,
probably happens to flu as well.

Going by this expert, we should maybe multiply detected COVID-19 cases by 3 for the real number
(which also makes the % death rate a bit less frightening)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NeilFergusonn_(epidemiologist)

* BBC news reported that Ferguson calculates that only one in three cases coming into the UK was being detected*

A family member is travelling to lanzarote next week. I'm really worried. She doesn't seem concerned.

MrsStrangerThing -

It keeps getting repeated because when people phone 111 they are being told they can't be tested unless they've been abroad.

I'm reading this everywhere.

So a smaller percentage jump than yesterday, but on the basis of fewer tests done and a higher positive rate from those tests.

Without doing a random sample of the population, there is no way of knowing if this is representative of what is truly going on or not. I guess it WILL include all the serious cases though, as they will have had to seek medical help.

A student at the local uni (bpc area, trying to be vague as not to out myself from google search) has tested positive for it. They self isolated and caught it from an individual else where in the uk. No action is being taken as "we believe is it's a safe environment". Now I am very worried.

@TheRealHousewife
Those figs are for england, not UK. Other countries tend to update later.

*bcp area sorry!

I’ve just received a text from DD’s school requesting that they DON’T take in hand gels/sanitizers (not that I’ve been able to get any) as it causes arguments and concerns over allergic reactions.

Egon I also wondered about that 100k being just for Scotland

... but would the govt - and Sturgeon - dare have left that figure circulate so widely in the media ?

It keeps getting repeated because when people phone 111 they are being told they can't be tested unless they've been abroad.I'm reading this everywhere.

Yes, that’s what I am reading, too.

Dusty, that is because they cannot possibly test everyone with cold like symptoms. There is a limit to the number of tests, the number of staff, the numbers of testing units. However it is wrong to say they are only testing people who have travelled from high risk areas. There is opportunistic testing happening too.

@Frouby because many people totally trust the government to tell them what they should do. DH wants to advise all of his workforce to wfh if they can, but has been stopped by senior management ‘because they will only do this if the government advises’. So even this totally free and no impact economically step is being held back as many people do not want to stick their own necks out and take social distancing measures.

WHO has advised the world to implement social distancing for a very good reason. And have advised countries to do this sooner rather than later. How and for how long is debatable, however not to do it at all? On a national level? That is not advisable.

Could we please remember that 24kish tests have been negative?

I really think we shouldn't start believing in any plots or evil plans

This is a government of not very bright people bumbling along, equally dim Opposition,
but fortunately with an excellent group of public health & scientific advisers - whom we should trust

Came back at Type A Influenza. Husband then got it. I myself have questioned if this was flu or the beginnings of COVID-19 as I haven'#t travelled. Both DS and I had our flu vaccinations and I had my pneumonia one too. They isolated us as soon as they got his lab results - we were sat in the communal area for about 4 hours prior to this. Then told us to go home and give him fluids and pain relief. There was talk of tamiflu but that never happened

Why are you 'questioning' if it was coronavirus when you know it wasn't?

The flu vaccinations are not 100% effective. Far from it. Every year, the teams try to predict which way the flu viruses in the community are going to mutate and develop a vaccine that will protect, and some years they are less successful than others. A post-match report is published each year on how effective it was after flu season.

With less than 1500 tested yesterday, how can those figures be meaningful?!
We seem to be resting less people as we see more cases.

Freezing, that is a shame, I totally agree that anyone able to WFH should be encouraged to do so. I also would like people to be able to remove their kids from school if they wish. This will also benefit those of us that cannot do those things.

Grr testing not resting

Yes at least the UK is testing 100 random sites (I think that is right). I’d love the Singapore model as it seems super effective, they are managing it very well, however at least we are doing some random testing.

Well, you take your own precautionary measures, with an awareness that anyone can have it, not just those coughing and sneezing.

How many people are we testing daily compared to other countries?

Great post BigChoc, I had no idea how to even formulate a response to that post!