worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 17

[usernameishistory]

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Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england

WHO advice for the public
www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

Its not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus. Please provide updated link if possible, I haven't been able to make this one work.

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

Please add in other links for any wanting to increase their understanding and decrease their anxiety!

Italy seems to be doubling every second day. But even that I would expect to slow down, as Italy was also going through a retrospective discovery process. Although we are yet to see the effects of the panicked migration over the weekend. But still that is Italy, not the UK.

If I had to guess, I would have thought the UK will hit a thousand by the weekend, then three to five thousand by weekend after, then increase by three to five thousand a week as government starts lock downs. I would be surprised if we hit a million in all of Europe. But it's just my best (unprofessional) guess, and assumes that our EU government will take drastic measures to suppress this.

I think we have at least a thousand now

But if you do want to get excited about something, check out the price of oil!!! It's going crazy. Collapsing as we watch. There will be carnage on the stock market today. I wouldn't be surprised if trump pops a vein with the stress of it. It's going to be a mad mad week from a financial point of view.

What did you going to do, neurorashwarrior ?

Child care?

Nothing huge it's just switching a day. So that they aren't covering a day I'm in work, simply so that we could manage longer term without them. Dh was speculating we'd have to do this. But that plan was before this potential decision today, I'm a teacher. But I know many who rely on G parents for more childcare.

Oh maybe u meant the government

Oh yes, tipping the balance of decisions is re the government.

That's the issue, that it can spread before you have no idea you have it.

(From what it said in the world o meter expert opinion quotes)

This graph is from that LinkedIn link.

OK so doubling every 2 days then, that's
600 on Tuesday
1200 on Thursday
2400 on Saturday
4800 on Monday
9600 on Wednesday
19200 on Friday
So nearly 40000 - if the incubating period is 14 days, already infected without knowing it? Or not, anyone challenge that figure?

I am not hysterical, but trying to work out whether this is going to be accurate. So far most UK cases originate from Italy and the government has done nothing except suggest people self quarantine after travel from one of 10 Italian towns. When it is very clear the problem is much greater.

It's a very weird situation. Considering taking mine out of school but maybe I should just wait. I don't know anything about this decision today. Do you think schools might be closed this week ?

and roughly doubling each day, and the incubation period is 14 days.. If it doubles every day for a week unchecked we would have 38,400 cases by next Sunday and nearly 5 million after 14 days

Are you talking about the UK? It’s not doubling each day.

Third UK death. A man in his 60s from Manchester.

It's funny scary that the people in the local paper are laughing at the thought of lock down, they keep sarcastically posting about it

Tbh this is all why there's a cobra meeting today.

They'll have all the data and projections. It's not a decision to be taken lightly as obviously hcps have children and hospitals and care homes must carry on.

Newjez the falling oil prices are scary, the markets obviously believe that the Corona virus is going to have severe implications.

Also, it didn't start doubling until a few days ago so could pick up pace faster than doubling.

It's all over the UK not confined like in Italy to 10 towns, so the Italian approach of quarantining a few small towns won't work here. The UK government had the opportunity at half term to stop travel from Italy and didn't take it. So they will need to come up with something else and rather quickly.

Wow, incredible some of the measures China has taken!

Over the last two months, Chinese citizens have had to adjust to a new level of government intrusion.

Getting into one’s apartment compound or workplace requires scanning a QR code, writing down one’s name and ID number, temperature and recent travel history. Telecom operators track people’s movements while social media platforms like WeChat and Weibo have hotlines for people to report others who may be sick. Some cities are offering people rewards for informing on sick neighbours.

Chinese companies are meanwhile rolling out facial recognition technology that can detect elevated temperatures in a crowd or flag citizens not wearing a face mask. A range of apps use the personal health information of citizens to alert others of their proximity to infected patients or whether they have been in close contact

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/the-new-normal-chinas-excessive-coronavirus-public-monitoring-could-be-here-to-stay

I can see why Chinese students in the UK are horrified at the difference in approach

Well as they only do 2000 tests a day rising to 3000 a day that’s all they can go up by. In real terms it will be more but we won’t know the true numbers unless they test higher numbers

Has anyone posted this yet?

m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10110434821081713&id=1228475

Doubling every day is unlikely. Case numbers haven't even done that in Italy.

If you look on Wikipedia by Googling country name coronavirus 2020" you can see graphs showing how it's progressed in different countries. If you look at the trajectories in France/Germany, I think we are now following a similar pattern and you can get some idea as to how things might progress.

I think it's more likely we will be looking at an average increase of 100 cases per day, so more likely 700 cases by Friday. Obviously that is still extremely worrying but it's very different to thousands of cases.

I would bet a fair amount of money we won't have over 10,000 cases by Friday.

Over the last two months, Chinese citizens have had to adjust to a new level of government intrusion.

A friend of mine is chinese and told me about the wife of a high ranking Party official who was laughing on WeChat that she could come and go as she wanted through the road blocks due to her dh. People reported her and the next morning both her and her dh were dragged off, presumed to a quarantine centre. He’s been “expelled” from the party and neither have been seen since.

The Chinese are taking it very seriously and it seems to be working.

But if you do want to get excited about something, check out the price of oil!!! It's going crazy

I heard that this morning. I bet we don't see any price reductions at the pump or to the cost of gas though.

Cases here seem to double every 3 days. How long that growth phase continues for I don’t know. I’d expect over 1000 by end of week, maybe getting on for 2000 by Sunday.